Ramblings: Christmas Eve Fantasy Hockey Wish List Including Kucherov,

Michael Clifford

2021-12-24

Well, we're here. It is Christmas Eve for those who celebrate, and the NHL is officially on its pause. (I suppose it depends on what team you're playing for, because your break may have started days ago.) Regardless, the NHL's official break is the 24th through the 26th, so that gives us a few days away from NHL news.

Every year around this time, in the spirit of the holiday, I post my fantasy wish list. As a fantasy owner, I'm a greedy person. I want to see the players I'm invested in do well, and do better. So, in that spirit, every year, I try to manifest things I want to see in the fantasy game. Will most of these help my fantasy roster? Absolutely. But it's my wish list, so here we go. (Stats from Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick)

Point-Kucherov

I like to play NHL best balls. For those unfamiliar, they are leagues where you draft your roster, and that's it. A certain number of players – say, two centers, three wingers, two defencemen, and one goalie – apply to your final score and that's it. No trades, no waivers. It is good draft prep and it's fun to try different strategies.

In best balls, stacking line mates is a good idea, and I did that a lot. One particular duo I had a lot of was Bennett-Huberdeau in Florida. Seeing as it's Christmas and Sam Bennett has five assists, that's not going super well. Another duo I invested in heavily was Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. They have combined for 19 games played, so, no, that's not going well either.

My wish here is simply for Tampa to get healthy. Kudos to the coaches and players for staying afloat through these severe injuries, it has been a great run. But I need my top fantasy options back in the lineup, and in the lineup consistently, if possible. Seeing them on the ice for practice on Boxing Day or something? I could not imagine a better present.

Power-Play Time for the Other Breadman

As with every player in the NHL, to hit their true fantasy upside, top (and productive) power-play minutes are a necessity. Just ask Nikolaj Ehlers – we'll get to him – about not getting the ice time that is necessary for monster production.

When it comes to Andrew Mangiapane, I think we're past questioning his skill. No, he won't shoot 24% the rest of the season, but he shot 16.2% over his previous 168 games, and has shown an ability to get to the dangerous areas consistently. That he can shoot 15% or better is not out of the realm of possibility. The problem with his fantasy profile this year is, like Sam Bennett, he's not racking assists, as he has three in 28 games. It should go without saying that he's getting unlucky; his true talent is not 10 assists a year. The problem is his line mates aren't scoring: his goals/60 at 5-on-5 is 2.25 and the team is scoring 3.05 with him on the ice. He is scoring about three-quarters of the team's goals when he's on the ice at 5-on-5. That will obviously turn, but he's not shown a penchant for a lot of assists in the past, either. He could have 15 assists the rest of the way, which is a huge improvement for him, but still not a lot, overall.

Where he could make up the lack of assists is with PP time. I get they need to get as much out of Sean Monahan as they can, but is he a better option at this point? I'm not sure, and they're both left shots. Hey, Darryl, are you reading this? Please move Mangiapane to the top PP unit.  

Kevin Fiala Needs a New Center

One of the things I've taken to heart since I've really started getting into analytics over the last decade is that the hardest minutes a player will ever play is with bad line mates, not against tough competition. Not that Kevin Fiala has bad line mates all the time, but he's played about a third of his 5-on-5 time with Victor Rask, and Rask is a questionable NHLer at this point. Unsurprisingly, Fiala's and Minnesota's offensive numbers improve drastically when he's skating with any center but Rask, so I am begging for this experiment to end. My wish? Please trade for a real center for Fiala.

You know who sprang to mind immediately? J.T. Miller. They will have to do the salary cap dance because those Suter/Parise buyouts start to hit next year to the tune of over $12M a season, and Fiala himself is an RFA. But a straight Dumba/Miller swap would work, and would seem to benefit both sides.

Regardless, that is the calibre of centre I want to see Fiala with (what's Tomas Hertl up to right now?). He has been stuck trying to carry lines going back to his Nashville days, and giving him some minutes where he doesn't have to do all the lifting offensively just might help him. Crazy thought!

Top-Line Joel Farabee Minutes

This has already started to happen as Farabee has been skating with Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny on the top line. Good! That's a start, but we need to see more.

The reason for this is that Farabee just might be the team's best goal scorer now. With James van Riemsdyk not the player he was in recent seasons, Konecny struggling, and some injuries, it's either Farabee or Cam Atkinson. I am willing to concede Atkinson probably has the edge, but that Farabee should even be considered in that company speaks to how far he's come in a few years.

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I don't think I'm overreaching here, either. Over the last three years, Farabee sits at 1.1 goals per 60 minutes at all strengths. In that span, league-wide, he's inside the 75th percentile in goal rate, which means a first-line rate. His goal rate is also tied with Matthew Tkachuk and Conor Garland, exceeding Timo Meier and Brock Boeser. He is shooting 15% in that span, and that's not egregious by any means.

Here we have a 21-year-old winger in his third season that has scored at a 15% clip for his career. He could be seeing some more ice time, I just wish it were to stay. We'll see.  

Robert Thomas needs to go John McClane

It has been awesome to see Robert Thomas break out. He is a guy I have been high on for a while and sometimes it's nice to rewarded for the faith. He has 22 points in 24 games on the year, on pace for over 70 points. He is skating north of 19 minutes a night, a jump of nearly six minutes from last season. His full breakout is here and a sight to behold.

Of course, there is another level here, and the shot rate is the focal point. He is shooting less per minute than anyone on the team not named Bozak (not great) and league-wide, he's in the fifth percentile of shooters. Even skating 19 minutes a night cannot save that low shot rate, as he's still just with 1.6 shots per game. While he's probably been shorted a couple goals, even shooting 15% at 1.5 shots per game for a full season is fewer than 20 goals. Unless there's a climb in his shot rate per minute, for now, he’s a Ryan Johansen-circa-2018-type, with 15 goals and 50 assists a season. That will certainly play for fantasy, but there is obviously more that he can give.

For my fifth wish this Christmas, I want to see Robert Thomas landing at least two shots per game, starting as soon as the 2022-23 regular season.

Nikolaj Ehlers and the perennial ice time wish

It has only been two games in the post-Maurice era, so there's not much to go on yet. But it is a chance for the Winnipeg Jets to do things a bit differently and I am begging coach Lowry: please give Nikolaj Ehlers 19 minutes a night.

Here are Ehlers's ranks across the league in various categories over his last three seasons:

  • Goals per 60 at 5-on-5: 14th
  • Assists per 60 at 5-on-5: 24th
  • Points per 60 at 5-on-5: 13th
  • Shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5: 8th
  • Goals per 60 at 5-on-4: 41st
  • Assists per 60 at 5-on-4: 55th
  • Points per 60 at 5-on-4: 40th
  • Shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-4: 9th
  • Ice time per game played at all strengths: 119th  
  • Ice time per game played at 5-on-4: T-186th

Are there two categories that stick out more than the others here? And it isn't as if he plays bad defence. He is a great two-way winger. His ice time remains one of the biggest problems in all of fantasy hockey.

There is a new coach, though, and with it, renewed hope. So, with that in mind, here goes the last wish: please, please, please give Ehlers 19 minutes a night after Christmas, including top PP minutes.

Happy holidays to everyone. I will be back next week on my usual day.

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