Frozen Tool Forensics: 2021’s Big Winners

Chris Kane

2021-12-24

Given the (now extended) break this week there isn't really a need to touch on streaking players or deployment changes so we are going to take this opportunity and look at how things have changed over the year to date. Last week we reviewed big deployment changes, but this week it is all about production – and the resulting changes in ranks players have seen.

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics: 2021's Big Winners

To get this review started we are going to be looking at average draft position data (ADP) from Yahoo. This will give us an idea of where players were ranked by managers going into the season. Since we don't have draft data from this week we are going to compare that ranking to Dobber's Top 100 Roto Ranking. This ranking gives a nice spread of categories, but as the title implies really only touches on the top 100 players. In actuality it allows us to review more as many players currently in the top 100 were not on draft day and vise-versa.

Diving right into the process here, I have exported ADP from the fall in a sheet and when I export the Roto report I can combine that rank with the roto rank for an easy comparison.

Quick note on how the ADP is represented: I have it sorted into rank, not average draft position. That means Connor McDavid is represented by a one, not a 1.1 because he was on average the first player drafted even though his average draft position was 1.1. Cale Makar had an actual ADP of 13.3, but that is the 12th highest rank so he is actually represented here by 12 not 13.3.

First up let's look at those players ranked almost exactly how they were drafted.

NamePositionYahoo Draft RankTop 100 RotoΔ In Rank
Alex DeBrincatLW,RW2931-2
Torey KrugD7476-2
Sam BennettC,LW8789-2
Mika ZibanejadC19190
Cale MakarD12102
Seth JonesD57552

Whatever you think of Jones' actual on ice play, the stat count is speaking for itself at the moment and rewarding anyone who drafted him reasonably high. Even with a current four game cold streak he is on a career high point pace, with career high average time on ice, and power-play time. He is also on pace for his second highest shot, hit, and block count seasons ever so is helping in those areas as well. Nothing seems to be too far off with his underlying numbers (maybe a bit high, but not much) so just enjoy his production.

Moving on to our disappointments. We don't have full rankings for everyone drafted, but we can look at the highest drafted players who are not currently ranked at all.