The Journey: Three Sink-Or-Swim Prospects

Ben Gehrels

2022-01-01

Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. A common dilemma with owning prospects in fantasy is knowing when to part ways with former blue-chippers who are beginning to lose value. Too early and they may still blossom into a star; too late and their trade value may bottom out before you can move them. On the flip side, disappointing prospects at a low point in their trajectory make excellent buy-low targets from panicking managers. This week, we'll consider three high-profile prospects who appear to be at a crossroads with their development.

Kaapo Kakko

Many fantasy owners are likely panicking about the state of their Kakko stocks. Currently on pace for only 33 points (which still would be a career high) despite being stapled to high-end linemates like Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad all year, Kakko is looking more like a Kyle Turris or Brandon Saad type than his draft year comparable Brendan Shanahan.

It's been a year of ups and downs for him so far: a tough start with no points over his first ten games (14:57 mins/game), some renewed hope when he scored eight points over his next seven (17:29 mins/game), and now only three points in his last ten (15:41 mins/game). Time on Ice (TOI) seems to have something to do with it: as you can see, Kakko averaged about two more minutes per game during his successful seven-game run than the ten games on either side.

That additional TOI wasn't on the PP; he's only seeing 24.5% of NYR's PP time, but as per his Frozen Tools Usage Chart below is driving play against high-quality competition at even strength (dark blue, near the top of chart)—a great sign that he's impacting the game positively despite the inconsistent offense. That kind of play-driving in a limited role is a sign a player is ready for increased responsibility and offensive deployment.

So Kakko has high-level linemates, tough deployment, and limited power-play time. He's driving play against tough opponents and has had one successful stretch in terms of production so far. His expected goals per 60 (xG/60) of 2.49 is comparable to stars like Cale Makar (2.49) and Kirill Kaprizov (2.48), but his low IPP of 50% means he's not as involved as we'd like to see in goals scored when he's on the ice.

If he can continue settling in with his linemates, get more offensive zone starts, and earn more time on the power play, Kakko will begin to reward his patient fantasy owners with more reliable production. He'll also have to start shooting the puck more often (only 1.7 shots/game so far this year). However, in terms of historical precedents, Kakko only has a 4% chance now of averaging a star-level 57-point pace over his career. He also provides surprisingly little in terms of peripherals, so if he's not contributing on the scoresheet, his value will be minimal.

Overall, Kakko is likely a Sell High candidate at this point if you can. He doesn't look like a typical power forward despite his large build and pre-draft billing, and he doesn't seem particularly impactful on the offensive side of the game either. Instead, he seems to be settling in as a middle-six, defensively responsible player who won't ever be lights out for fantasy purposes.

If you're wrapped up in a sunk cost mindset with him, however, give him another 60+ games to reach his BT before giving up hope. He's only 20 years old and has already played 141 NHL GP, meaning his Breakout Threshold arrives in about 60 GP, around the start of next year, though he's a bigger player (6-3, 205 lbs) and may end up taking an additional 200 GP before truly hitting his upside. He's clearly becoming an important player for the Rangers and may be able to figure things out to some extent—just likely not at the level expected of him as a second overall pick.

Erik Brannstrom

Brannstrom is another player whose fantasy stocks seem to be in a freefall lately. The Senators took him 15th overall in 2017 for his incredible hockey sense, skating, and playmaking.

He's had horrible luck and production this year: he scored only three points in nine AHL GP, got called up to the Senators, went pointless over two games, then broke his hand and landed on IR. On December 29, Brannstrom was re-activated by the Sens and may again see time with the big club moving forward; he's currently practicing on the third pairing with Victor Mete.

By the time he aged out of the Hockey Prospecting model after his second year in the AHL, Brannstrom had an incredible 73% chance of becoming a star defenceman in the NHL. He then performed well over a short stint in the Swiss National League and put up a 36-point pace as an NHL rookie.

So why the concern? Well, check out his PNHLe progression since being drafted in 2017. He's fallen quite far since attaining incredible highs between 2016-2018.

Other concerns include his smallish stature (5-10, 185 lbs), the perception that he's fallen out of favour with Ottawa's coaching staff, and the competition and lack of opportunity he's facing moving forward. In terms of size, there are many examples of successful defencemen who share Brannstrom's approximate build—Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar, for instance. As for the trade rumours, there seems to be more smoke than fire here. He's a young, right-handed, high upside defenceman who hasn't really broken out yet; that makes for an attractive name to include in trade rumour articles but there's little to no evidence that Ottawa is souring on Brannstrom.

In fact, Brannstrom is still 135+ games away from hitting his BT, he drove play well last year in a sheltered role, and he put up a great point pace for a rookie defender with limited power-play time. He's had poor luck this year but we shouldn't read too much into nine AHL games and two NHL games. He'll have to battle Jared Bernard-Docker and Jake Sanderson for playing time, but OTT Coach DJ Smith recently explained the team's decision to waive Michael Del Zotto by stating that their mindset has "switched to development" and prioritizing opportunities for younger players.

If Brannstrom can become the peak Shayne Gostisbehere to Thomas Chabot's Ivan Provorov, taking over the top power-play role for an improving Sens team (he only saw 36% of OTT's PP time last year), continue shooting the puck as much as he was last year (5 shots/60), and continue getting sheltered offensive zone starts, there could be a very effective fantasy defenceman here. If everything breaks right, think Shea Theodore or Miro Heiskanen.

He excels in transition and with keeping shots from the point low and on target. Check out these puck skills. The first clip is a goal he scored in the AHL; the second is a similar attempt in the NHL that just missed the net. This kid can play, so don't lose hope.

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Eeli Tolvanen

It's getting a little repetitive, isn't it, wondering if Tolvanen will turn into a star? But here we are again. After scoring at a 45-point pace while seeing under 15 mins/game last year, Tolvanen's ice time and production have both fallen—the former by a minute, the latter by about 14 points. His power play percentage is also down 12% this year, and most concerningly, he's only been involved in 41% of the goals scored while he's on the ice. That's down from 76% last year, which is more the number we'd expect to see from a scoring star like he is supposed to be.

So should you get what you can for Tolvanen, or hold him and keep hoping?

There are a number of positive signs that suggest fantasy managers should hang onto the feisty Finn. For one, he's only 22 and still has 120 GP to reach his BT. With Tolvanen and how insanely hyped he was in his Draft+1 year, it's easy to forget that he hasn't seen that much NHL action yet. He's played most of two seasons in the KHL and a couple in the AHL as well. He still needs a fair amount of time to acclimate to the highest level.

As of Tolvanen's second year in the AHL in 2019-20, Jesse Puljujarvi was a close comparable in terms of career trajectory. Although Pool Party is further along in his pro career and has a later BT than Tolvanen as a bigger player, he's finally seeing 17+ minutes per game, is shooting more (2.8 shots/game), and is playing with world-class linemates.

Another positive sign for Tolvanen is how significantly he's contributing to fantasy teams even when he's not scoring. Despite pacing for only 31 points so far this year, he's shooting (2.5/game) and hitting (1.8/game) a ton. That's 200 shots and about 150 hits over 82 games. If he can maintain those peripherals while increasing his scoring into the 50+ point range, he'll be a very useful fantasy player.

Even though he's not seeing a high percentage of Nashville's power play so far this year (45.6), he's still managed five PP points. When compared to a higher-profile player like Kakko, Tolvanen has a comparable point pace but is much more valuable for fantasy purposes because of his peripheral contributions.

Usage seems to be Tolvanen's main issue at the moment. His minutes at both even strength and with the man advantage need to increase dramatically for him to have a chance at making a more significant impact on the scoresheet. Encouragingly, from the first quarter to the second this year, his TOI has gone up about three minutes at even strength and 40 seconds on the PP. Surprise, surprise, Tolvanen has scored twice as many points with the additional ice time. Look for that trend to continue moving forward, as he was the reason for the Preds power play coming to life last year.

He's always been known for his powerful shot, and for good reason: it's next level.

Don't give up on him. He'll help you in the short term as a category filler and over the longer term as a complete multi-cat asset.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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