Fantasy Mailbag: Trading 101, Cap Navigation, Second Goalies, Prospecting, Meier, Point, Norris & More
Rick Roos
2022-01-05
Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.
Question #1 (from Justin)
I'm looking for advice on some cap prioritizing for my 10 team, actual salary, keep 15, points-only league, with an NHL cap ceiling of $81.5M (next season $82.5M, tracking the real NHL cap). There are
22 player rosters (6 bench) and there must be 11F, 4D and 1G on each team's roster at all times. The roster size means we have twice as many keepers as drafted players each season. Benched players do not count against the cap, and the league also has a rule where one player can count for only half his salary, with the caveat being he can't be benched if he gets hurt and that player has to be designated prior to the season.
I currently have Aleksander Barkov, Artemi Panarin, and Brayden Point, who'll cost me, respectively, $12M, $12.5M and $9M next season. I realize that's a lot; however, I feel I can afford them due to having Cole Caufield, Quinton Byfield, Alex Newhook and Seth Jarvis, each of whom will make $0.93M next season. The rest of my keepers likely will be taken from this group, with their salary for next season in parentheses: Nikolaj Ehlers ($4.5M), Tyson Barrie ($4.5M), Connor Hellebuyck ($4.5M), Zach Hyman ($5.1M), Max Pacioretty ($5.25M), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5.5M), Aaron Ekblad ($6M), John Carlson ($6M), Josh Norris (RFA).
I'm wondering how this looks to you, particularly if you think the four ELC guys will do enough by next season to balance out my three huge contracts? Or do you think I should be looking to tweak my team such that I trade at least one of those three huge contracts for a player who might give me 75% of the production but at 50% of the price?
Right off the bat I'll say I think this is a very good team given the league parameters. Well done! Yes, three guys accounting for 40% of your cap is scary; however, one of them – probably Panarin – should be safe to designate as your half cap guy, as his track record of staying healthy is solid. So right there you're saving $6.25M.
The four ELC guys are all likely to be impactful next season as well. Caufield should get things figured out after a learning curve 2021-22, Byfield will be on his second campaign, while Newhook could be the second line center in Colorado given that Nazem Kadri's strong play is likely pricing him out of returning to the Avs, and Carolina has already had Jarvis skate regular shifts with top players. Will all of them give you superb stats? Probably not; however, if all four play 82 games I'd estimate that they'd collectively score 200+ points between them in 2022-23, which, for their salaries, and given what your three top end guys will bring to the table, should be more than adequate.
But the best thing this team has going for it, arguably, are the $4-6M guys, as every forward in the group should be a lock for 65+ points and every defenseman 50+ points, with their potential ceilings being even higher. What's more, each of them is signed through at least 2023-24, with only Hellbuyck's salary spiking, and with him, plus Barrie and Pacioretty, being UFA eligible after that campaign.
Honestly, I'd stand pat – literally do nothing. I know that's a boring answer; but what I see is a team that likely is pretty great as is. That having been said, if you did want to consider moving a player, it could be Point, especially since his salary spikes after next season and he's yet to show he's more than a one hit wonder. Of course he's been without his linemate Nikita Kucherov since 2019-20, so it might be that once they're reunited Point will rise to become a 90+ guy again. Still though, I'm not sure Point will ever be as a much of a locked in producer as Barkov or Panarin. After all, he's never had an IPP – overall or on the PP – of 70%, even in his huge 2018-19 campaign. Plus, he did play all of 2019-20 with Kucherov and only produced at a point per game level. Moreover, he's the youngest of the three big earners, so you likely would get a lot of suitors who think his best days lie ahead, when in truth he might never again achieve success at the same level as 2018-19, let alone outdo himself. If you do want to tinker with the team, he's the guy I'd trade for those reasons.
As for which of the 16 guys you listed would be the one you don't keep, it's still very early but probably I'd say Hyman, who's had about the best deployment he could receive and is doing just okay, plus could fare much worse if he's pushed off PP1. The other possibility is Pacioretty, although he's playing as if he was ten years younger and probably will sign for cheap money to stay with Vegas. Either way, you have the rest of the season to see how things play out there. Good luck, although I'm not sure you need it!
Question #2 (from Jamie)
I'm in a very deep points only league that has a minor league system with a total maximum of 50 contracts, which mimics the NHL. This offseason I have to sign or release the players listed below. I can sign them for 1 to 4 years and they remain an RFA once that contract is done, so I get an additional contract after that. My question is, of these players, who is worth continuing to sit on and let develop and who should be cut to open up some contract space to sign other prospects or depth pieces?
F – Serron Noel, Lias Andersson, Isac Lundestrom, Jack Studnicka, Jan Jenik, Brett Leason, Logan Brown, Trey Fix-Wolansky, Bobby Brink
D – Dennis Cholowski, Ian Mitchell, Timothy Liljegren
G – Danill Tarasov, Lukas Dostal, Ian Scott, Stuart Skinner
If there's an area where my fantasy hockey knowledge is least deep, it's regarding prospects. I'll still give you my input; however, you should consult the DobberHockey Forums, where you'll get plenty of input from people who are well versed in prospects.
Factors to consider are age, size, and when they figure to make an NHL impact. The younger the player the more likely it is you should keep him; however, if either he's unlikely to make an impact in four years, which is the maximum you can sign him for, then you may want to cut him in favor of someone who, although older, has a better path to success. But you also want to take at least some risks.
Let's start with goalies. I like signing Tarasov and Dostal for four years. Tarasov is poised to be a back-up next season, while Dostal likely will be in 2023-24, and behind a Band-Aid Boy. Skinner is interesting given that Mike Smith isn't getting any younger and Mikko Koskinen not getting any better, although Edmonton likely will bring in a true #1. Scott has had injury issues and Joseph Woll showed flashes of strong play in a couple of NHL games. Plus the last goalies drafted by the Leafs who made NHL impacts were James Reimer and Tuukka Rask, over 15 years ago. That's a long time, so if you ink Scott to a deal, I'd make it one or two years at most. But I could also see letting him go given the other three guys.
Shifting to defense, Cholowski is about to turn 24 and his early promise has started to fade. In fact, his days as an NHL regular might be over. I like what Mitchell has done in the AHL this season, and he has offensive upside. Liljegren seems to be doing well enough to give him a good chance to become an NHL regular, albeit perhaps not a hugely impactful one. I'm not sure any of them are so great as to be a lock for a four year deal, but I'd go at least two or three years for Liljegren and Mitchell, while Cholowski might be someone to let go back into the free agent pool.
Taking the forwards in order, Noel is a long-term project given his size and style. He's either one to let go or to sign for four years – there's no in between. My take is that his upside is worth a gamble. Andersson has among the most NHL experience of all these players but he's yet to make any sort of measurable impact and, at 23, isn't as young as some of these guys. I'd say he's not worth keeping – think of him like a forward version of Cholowski.
Lundestrom is in the NHL and making a real impact. He's a four-year signee. Studnicka hasn't capitalized on his NHL experience from last season, but Boston will need to restock its cupboard at center so he's worth a four-year gamble. I like Jenik too given that Arizona is rebuilding. Points only won't be his best format but his gritty style should give him a better shot at a top nine spot than a garden-variety player. Maybe he's not a four-year guy, but I'd give him at least two seasons.
Leason is a big player who needs to grow into his body, and it's not a guarantee that he'll pan out. But the Caps have given him NHL action, which means a lot. If you have the risk tolerance, he could be a four-year guy; however, I like Noel more even though he's yet to make an NHL impact whereas Leason already has. Brown has had injury issues and it's not great that he's played at least one game in five seasons thus far yet never more than 23 games and only once prior to this season more than four. He's showing signs of life in St. Louis, which is likely to lose David Perron as a UFA and still is a safe bet to move Vladimir Tarasenko if not during the season then before 2022-23. Once they're gone Brown could find a regular spot in the top nine. Ink him for one to three years.
Fix-Wolansky is excelling in the AHL; however, he's a small player and as we've seen countless times it's difficult for guys like him to get a true shot. He might be one to not sign, as he has home run potential but when in doubt bet against the little guy prospect. Brink is excelling in college but he too is diminutive, although he's a Flyer prospect and that team is aging, giving him a better chance at making an NHL impact. Despite what I said about Fix-Wolansky, I'd give Brink a full four-year deal. Good luck!
Question #3 (from Nelson)
My keeper league has been running for over 30 years! There are 21 teams with a main roster of 18 players and a junior roster of 6, each of whom must have played fewer than 100 NHL games, or, if a goalie, fewer than 4000 minutes. For scoring, only players on the main roster count, and forwards get one point each for a goal or assist, defensemen get two for a goal and one for an assist, goalies get four if they score a goal and two if they get an assist. Each team loses points based on this formula: (1-A) x B X 82/C X D, where A is the SV% of the goalies, B is the average shots per NHL game from the previous season, C is the number of total stat weeks in the NHL schedule, and D is the number of stat weeks into the schedule. Also, if a team's goalies on its main roster don't end up playing 4000+ NHL combined minutes, the team SV% will be set at 84% or the team's actual percentage, whichever is lower. A team can have as many active goalies on its main roster as it wants.
I currently have Connor Hellebuyck and Mike Smith as my goalies. With Mike Smith being injured for the majority of the season I am right on the cutoff line of being below the number of minutes played to qualify my goalie stats. My question is do I ride it out with Mike Smith as my second goalie hoping he will play enough minutes and have a decent save percentage (anything over 0.910 would be good) or do I pick up another goalie and dump Smith? I do have Jesper Wallstedt on my junior roster for the future. If I dropped Smith, I'd only have one pick up left for the rest of the season.
The goalies I have to choose from that could help this year are Daniil Tarasov, Anthony Stolarz, Ville Husso, Craig Anderson, Eric Comrie and Joseph Woll. Do you think any of these guys will give me 500 minutes and a decent save percentage for the rest of the season, or do I stick with Mike Smith?
First off, in the time between when this question was submitted until now, Smith returned for a couple of games then was re-injured. If healthy, Smith presumably will reassume his role as the #1 goalie for the Oilers; but, it's not clear whether you'd be best served by a goalie with a higher volume of starts over the rest of the season, assuming he can stay healthy and perform well – two big ifs. That's because Hellebuyck is such a workhorse, he should get ~3500 minutes on his own. Add to that minutes Smith has logged this season, and – presuming Hellebuyck doesn't miss an extended period of time – your team would be nearly at the 4000 minutes minimum, such that having Smith could be kind of overkill.
What that means is you should only hang onto Smith if he'll be a benefit. Yes, last season he played superb, with a SV% of .923; and in limited action this season, his SV% also was high enough to make him worthwhile. But who's to say how he'll perform after his injury, or if perhaps he might be susceptible to (re)injury or his level of play falling off, especially since he turns 40 before this season ends.
What about the alternatives you listed, assuming all are still available? One option you presented would be to stack Hellebuyck with his back-up Comrie. Barring an injury to one of them, Comrie or Hellebuyck will start all the remaining games for Winnipeg, and Comrie has a SV% above the .910 threshold that you desire. Stolarz also seems to be playing well, building upon success achieved last season. With Anaheim vastly improved as a team, and John Gibson already having been injured so far and a perpetual risk to get hurt again, Stolarz should log 15-20+ games between now and the end of the season and probably give you the same top tier SV% he's posted thus far. Husso also has played excellent in limited action, making him a consideration. Woll had a couple of great games but also a couple of stinkers, and the Leafs seem plenty happy to lean on Jack Campbell, plus Petr Mrazek is too well paid to be out of the picture, so I'd rule out Woll. Tarasov is the third goalie in Columbus, so I'm not banking on him either, while Anderson is a Band-Aid Boy and plays for a poor team.
If it's not Smith, it'd be one of Comrie, Stolarz, or Husso, each of whom – plus Hellebuyck – should get you to 4000+ minutes. Comrie might be the worst of these three on paper; but he's also insurance in case Hellebuyck gets hurt, while the other two are very good back-ups who, assuming that Hellebuyck stays healthy, should play more and better than Comrie. Still, looming in the background is the chance that somehow Hellbeuyck gets hurt, which would mean you'd need Comrie, as neither Stolarz nor Husso would get you to 4000 minutes. I think if you drop Smith you grab Comrie. But do you drop Smith? Barring further injury or collapse he'll play far more minutes than the other three; yet as I noted above that's not helpful to you unless his SV% is higher than what Comrie, Stolarz or Husso – each of whom, plus Hellebuyck, would get you to 4000 minutes – would provide. I can see you wanting to stick with Smith, but if you think his SV% won't be a step up from Comrie's, I think you stack the Winnipeg goalies to ensure you get all the Jets' games and put you over 4000 minutes. Good luck!
Question #4 (from Peter)
I’m having a tough time assessing the sustainability of a few of my players’ production so far. I’m in a 10 team points only full keeper league (12F 6D 2G + 4 bench spots) and wondering which of Timo Meier, Martin Necas, Travis Konecny, Jakub Vrana, Jesse Puljujarvi, or Devon Toews, would be the ideal trade baits, ranked in order. Please also give your thoughts on what should be in store for them for the rest of the 2021-22 and beyond.
Before delving into each player, let's talk about what makes a player worthwhile to trade. It might seem like a no brainer to always trade someone playing unsustainably well, that's not always the case. Sure, in a one-year league you'll normally want to sell high; however, in a keeper – especially a dynasty – it's necessary to see the extent to which the player is performing above expectations and factor in whether he's more likely to never achieve these heights again, or, instead, that indeed he's too hot for now but is a good bet to be able to continue to mature and develop such that he can ultimately reach or exceed these levels in the normal course. Still, if you can turn such a player into a better, more proven entity, or one who can fill a vital need, it's probably worth trading him even if he holds a lot of promise.
You also want to factor in name value and reputation. Some players might be underperforming but for whatever reason (i.e. age, draft position, prior output) still can command a good return in trade. You want to move them – especially in keepers – unless you believe they can turn things around, since you don't want to be left holding a hyped player once the hype dies. Similarly, if a player is doing well but for whatever reason people are still undervaluing him, it's often not ideal to trade him, since you won't get a fair return. In those cases hold until the player is finally accepted as a legit star, and then reassess, unless he's grossly overachieving, in which case bite the bullet and sell before he comes back to earth.
With Meier, I think the presence of Evander Kane over the last couple of seasons not only made it so Meier had worse deployment, but it also sapped his confidence. I find it no coincidence that he's now excelling with Kane out of the picture. Is it sustainable? His IPPs are a bit high, but not so much so that he seems like he's bound to regress very much. His SOG rate is stratospheric, especially given his ice time; however, his SH% a bit above his career rate. And he's doing this without even 50% offensive zone starting percentage, making the numbers somewhat dubious but also unquestionably impressive. His PPPts also haven't spiked, although he's always been a bit of an underperformer in that area. My read is he's now a player with a 70 point floor and an ~85 point ceiling. So you could term him a sell high; but I think he can find a way to stay at a point per game, particularly if he fares better on the PP. One other tidbit – if we look at players who had a season averaging 4.33+ SOG per game – which is Meier's current rate – 39 of the 45 who did so dating back to 1990-91 finished with at least a point per game scoring in that same campaign, with 35 scoring at a 90+ point rate. I like Meier as a hold.
Necas seemed to be coming into his own last season despite not receiving a lot of ice time or being on Carolina's potent PP1. For 2021-22 thus far, though, he's underperformed, likely due to his main center, Vincent Trocheck, slumping. What I like about Necas is his overall IPP has been 70% or greater in each of his full seasons, which is what I look for when determining if a player has what it takes to be an elite fantasy performer. What could Necas do if he played with the best and brightest on Carolina? We saw a preview of that when he skated more with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen in Q2, and the results were just okay. That, coupled with no clear path to PP1, and most Carolina wingers not receiving a lot of ice time, make him a risk. Still, I think he's a hold given what likely lies ahead for the 22-year-old.
As for Konecny, I covered him in depth in a recent Goldipucks column, where, to summarize, I found that he seems to struggle if tasked with trying to carry a line on his own but also fades into the background if paired with more talented players. Yes, he had a great 2019-20; however, his metrics and PPPts look to be outliers given what he's done since then. He also has gone from hyped player to post-hyped player, which makes him all the more difficult to trade for fair value due to seeds of doubt having entered the minds of poolies. I still think Konecny is young enough to develop into a player who can be a "the guy" type; however, until then he's likely someone to hold and hope performs decently, as the value he'd fetch in trade would not make it worthwhile to move him unless you can do so for a player who you feel is being undervalued by his or her owner.
Vrana took Detroit by storm upon arriving late last season, playing point per game hockey and firing just under three SOG per game. What's more, he did so separated from Dylan Larkin for the most part. So if Detroit elects to keep Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi and Lucas Raymond together at ES, then Vrana still might do well, especially since opposing teams will focus primarily on that line. Plus, one would expect that even if Vrana doesn't play with any of the trio at ES, he'd be on the PP with all of them. Vrana looks poised to ascend to even greater fantasy heights and I wouldn't trade him period, but especially not now given the hype surrounding him has all but died while he's been injured.
Pool Party had me concerned when, after a scorching start, he posted only two points in an eight game stretch and was summarily taken off a line with Connor McDavid. But JP was reunited with McDavid soon enough; moreover, when Zach Hyman was injured before the COVID break and JP had a chance to skate on PP1, he fared well, perhaps paving the way for him to grab a spot there, which could vault him into truly elite territory. Do I think JP could get you "fair" value if traded? Possibly; but I'd probably hold him since Edmonton has spent many seasons looking for a winger to pair with McDavid, and JP has looked the best of the bunch, suggesting he'll have a permanent gig there. Think Jake Guentzel and Sidney Crosby. If not, then chances are JP plays with Leon Draisaitl, which is quite the consolation prize. Hold him too.
Toews is a sell, without question. His SH% is much higher than his career rate and his secondary assist rate is 62.5%, which is definitely elevated. Yes, he's stapled to Cale Makar, who's an offensive catalyst, but the same was true last season for the most part, and Toews' production was lower. Let's also not forget Toews gets PP scraps and his SOG per game is actually down a bit from last season. Toews will almost assuredly continue to produce at a rate better than what you paid to get him in draft or trade; but he might be the most clear cut example of selling high I've seen in a while. Of course, don't expect to get top value for him, as even the most optimistic GM would not be blind to the fact he's substantially overachieving. Yet the fact he plays with Makar, and on the up-tempo Avs, should allow you to tout him enough to be able to cash in. Trade him and don't look back. Good luck!
Question #5 (from Dennis)
I feel I'm very adept at all aspects of fantasy hockey, with one notable exception – trading. Usually I'll to reach out to people to ask who's available and what they'd want in return, but that rarely gets me anywhere. Also, when I do send another team a specific offer and ask them for a yes or a counter if they don't find my offer to their liking, I rarely get a reply, let alone anything that would enable us to move toward an actual trade
What advice can you offer to help me succeed in this area?
Ah, trading. I've got news for you – no one has it down pat. Some might claim they do; but they don't. It's an art form; and even the most knowledgeable fantasy hockey enthusiasts will have plenty of misses to go along with their hits.
That having been said, there is some general advice I can offer, with the caveat being this is not one size fits all. Also, in view of your separate question below, I'll limit my advice to trading in keepers, as the guidance would differ for one-year leagues, when trading successfully generally depends on being the best at identifying undervalued and overvalued assets, plus looking at linemates, categories, and ice times, as well as other factors influencing how well a player will fare over the rest of the season.
First and foremost, when it comes to trading in keepers, you have to know the tendencies of your fellow GMs. Again referring to your question below, you say you're in your third year in this league. That's probably not enough to know what makes everyone tick when it comes to trading. Still though, you should be able to figure out who are the more active traders and inactive traders – that is, guys who will go out of their way to tinker with their team and, to that end, try and make trades (i.e., active traders) versus those who tend to like to stick with their team and are hesitant to make any deals (i.e., inactive traders). Is everyone always in the same category every season? No; and some GMs could fall in the middle. But I find that GMs will usually fit into one category. You need to know this information and be able to leverage it to your benefit.
Those who are more open to trading – the active traders – should be approached at any time, and don't feel like you need to have the specifics of a deal already shaped. But if you come to them with an offer, don't be afraid to tilt it in your favor, as they probably won't just summarily reject the offer and slam the door. The goal when trading with these GMs is to use their inherent desire to tinker with things in order to end up with a deal that's sided in your favor. Just because they trade a lot doesn't mean they're necessarily better at it. In fact, I'd say the opposite is often true, as they tend to either give up on players too early or are willing to buy low on a guy who might not have a realistic chance of turning things around. Long story short, you want to make deals with these GMs if possible, and if you don't feel like you have the upper hand then just walk away, as often their desire to make a deal of any kind will have them crawling back and you can take advantage.
When it comes to approaching inactive traders, you need to be prepared to do the work for both of you. Come with a specific deal already mapped out, and ask them for a yes or no. You'll probably get a no, since these types usually are worried about getting fleeced, contributing to their inactivity. Don't think you'll get a counter from them, as unless you pique their interest they'll probably just say no and figure the discussions are over. Keep pressing though. Be creative. Try to appeal to their weak spots. If they truly won't budge, then don't waste your time trying to get blood from a stone.
The other key in trading is the number keepers. In the end, having a surplus of players beyond how many you can keep is useless unless offseason trading is allowed; however, in those cases, other teams will know you stand to lose a player for nothing if you don't deal him, so you might get pennies on the dollar. Of course unless you're out of the running you also need to ensure your team is well stocked enough to compete for the win. That's why you must take a hard look at your team at the quarter points in the season. If at any point you're so far out of it you can't compete, then your sole mission becomes to assemble the best possible groups of keepers even if it means the rest of your cupboard is bare by the time the season is over.
Lastly, I know these are now more than five years old and the players used in the examples are definitely no longer applicable; but you probably want to read my columns on ten tips for fantasy hockey trading. Here are links to part one and part two. Aspects of what I said there were noted to at least some extent above, but you might be able to pick up other helpful ideas too. Good luck!
Question #6 (also from Dennis)
I'm in my third season in my first ever H2H league with category scoring. Previously I participated in points-only pools. I've had three drafts and learned valuable lessons from each. Even I'll admit though that I drafted poorly this year, taking too many one-dimensional players. Between COVID shut downs, injuries, and my poor draft, I'm realistic enough to know I'm not contending this season, so I've shifted my focus to keepers, with each team getting six.
Here are the league parameters and my roster:
12 Team H2H (Most Cats. Win) Keep 6:
G A PPP SOG HIT BLK FOW / W GAA SV% SHO
2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 1Ut, 3G, 6 Bench
Daily lineups, Goalies 4 weekly starts minimum, 4 weekly waiver moves.
C: Connor McDavid, Anze Kopitar, Josh Norris
LW: Artemi Panarin, Brad Marchand, Conor Garland, Teuvo Teravainen, Kevin Fiala
RW: Mitch Marner, Jeff Carter, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Barclay Goodrow, Tanner Jeannot
D: Tyson Barrie, Ivan Provorov, Drew Doughty, Erik Johnson, Martin Fehervary
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy , Darcy Kuemper, Pavel Francouz, Laurent Brossoit
Five of my keepers are easy to select: McDavid, Vasilevskiy, Panarin, Marner, and Marchand. Number six has me stumped. I'd love to add a "stud" along the lines of Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, or Mikko Rantanen. But whenever I even ask anyone about one of these guys, they refuse to open discussions without the requirement of getting McDavid in return. Two examples of offers I've received for McDavid are MacKinnon, Andrei Svechnikov, and Juuse Saros or for MacKinnon, Brady Tkachuk, and Saros.
My questions are do I consider trading McDavid? If so, which offer is better? If not, who do you see as my sixth keeper?
Let's start with the easy answer – McDavid is essentially untouchable here. It's not just because he's amazing, which of course he is, but also because you have other great keepers. If you didn't, then there would perhaps be lure to getting three solid keepers in exchange for him. But, since your keeper list is already almost full, the added players you'd receive would be superfluous, unless you could then turn around and trade them for others. But that's a lot of ifs. Stick with McDavid, who, combined with your other keepers, will put you right back into the thick of contention next season.
Who is your sixth keeper? First off, it's not a goalie or a defenseman. You just don't have the elite talent at either position. That makes me wonder if you should try to move a player – most likely Marchand – to get a keepable d-man. Yes, I realize people will try to pry McDavid from you; but if you stand firm and offer up Marchand, who I see as a sell high, you should find a suitor.
Whether or not you can cobble together such a trade, that still leaves you with one keeper spot for a forward. Right now your keeper positions are C, LW, RW, G, and, if you keep Marchand, LW. So you have things covered enough such that you don't need to give a player more or less weight due to his position. That's good, as it let's you keep the best player available.
If you do keep Marchand, then probably you want to balance that with keeping someone who is a bit younger, or else you'd have two aging players in danger of decline at any moment. That's relevant, as on paper probably your best other keeper is Kopitar. But I'm not a fan of keeping him and Marchand.
If Marchand is kept, it'd probably be one of Norris, Garland, Teravainen, Fiala, and Bjorkstrand. TT and are fine, but a notch below the other three. Bjorkstrand and Fiala don't get FOW, so that's not a factor to weigh. What is, however, are HIT and BLK, as your keepers are thin in that area. Yes, it's not difficult to fill one's roster with bangers; but if deciding between keepers who otherwise are perhaps comparable, that could tilt the scales. Of the five, Norris is by far the best in those categories. His G and SOG are also quite solid. Yes, Norris does play center, which is the deepest position in fantasy. Few centers are as physical as he is nor as much of a SOG and goal scoring threat, plus he's likely only going to get better, at a rate comparable to or even above and beyond the extent Bjorkstrand and Fiala will. In fact, as I write this Norris is averaging a goal per every other game, 2.7 SOG per game, and would project to have 13+ PPGs. Looking back to the 2000-01 season, the list of centers who averaged 0.4+ goals per game, 2.5+ SOG per game, and had 13+ PPGs in a season by age 22, which is how old Norris is now, is Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Evgeni Malkin, Eric Staal, Joe Thonton, and Anze Kopitar. With those comparables, Norris becomes a very attractive keep. I'm opting for Norris over Bjorkstrand and Fiala as the sixth keeper, unless Marchand has been moved for a defenseman, in which case Kopitar could be the pick for keeper number six over Norris, provided of course Kopitar continues his strong play over the remainder of the season and you're not swayed by the data I presented above about Norris. Good luck!
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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee". When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.