Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing Fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we'll take a look at three defenders—one each from the Liiga, SHL, and Allsvenskan—who are all having excellent seasons. All three are perfect examples of "modern" defensemen in the sense that they are undersized, fluid skaters, and defensively capable.

Liiga: Topi Niemela (TOR)

Niemela's development curve has been trending steeply upward ever since the Leafs grabbed him in the 2020 3rd round. He only scored seven points in 43 games that year as a rookie in Finland's top men's league, and his prior production at the junior levels never really jumped off the page either—that is, until you account for the fact that he scored 12 points in only four games against his peers in the U16 league at 15 and then spent the rest of his career until now competing against players 2-4 years older than him. Here's his profile from Hockey Prospecting:

His 24 points in 33 games this year at 19 is finally beginning to turn heads outside the scouting and Finnish hockey communities; Niemela, currently leading all U20 skaters and tied for the defenceman scoring lead with Arizona prospect Vili Saarijarvi, is quickly becoming a hot stash in keeper and dynasty leagues. He's taking three shots per game and only one of those 24 points has come on the power play.

When former Dobber writer Jokke Nevalainen did a deep dive on Niemela a couple years ago, he compared him in terms of style and offensive upside to a player like Matt Niskanen: a solid, two-way, 30-point defenseman with upside. Ian Cole is another player who Niemela's trajectory resembles at this point.

These might not be the most flattering comparisons from a fantasy perspective but Niemela's ultimate upside remains intriguing. He has always dominated play against his peers in the past, so what will he be able to do over the next couple years against men as he begins to flex his adult muscles? Scouting reports are unified in raving about his responsible defensive play and excellent transitional game. Offense was always supposed to be secondary with Niemela and yet here he is scoring 0.76 points per game in one of the better professional leagues in the world.

Niemela told Nevalainen that he models his game after Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar, and Erik Karlsson—fast, puck-moving defenseman who transition the puck effectively, excel on the power play, and use active sticks and excellent positioning to shut down attackers. Apparently the Karpat coaches regularly prepare footage of those guys for him to review. Although it's very unlikely he reaches the heights of those three, perhaps he'll hit somewhere between Niskanen and Heiskanen. That would be an excellent return on investment for the Leafs' third round pick.

SHL: Albert Johansson (DET)

Many Red Wings fans were hoping to see Johansson in the NHL, or at least the AHL, already this year; instead, he elected to re-up with Farjestad for one more season. Last year, he finished second in scoring among all defensemen under 20 in the SHL behind fellow Wings prospect Moritz Seider with 19 points in 44 games (0.43 points per game). This year, he's upped his scoring pace, currently sitting with 17 points in only 34 games (0.5 ppg).

In many ways, Johansson is a similar defenseman to Niemela: they're almost exactly the same height and weight (that is, decently tall but quite slight in build), and he skates well and excels on offensive transitions, protecting the puck and generating scoring chances off the rush.

Also like Niemela, Johansson is quite sound defensively as well. Being a smaller player, he uses an active stick plus excellent gap control and positioning to break up plays in the defensive zone. Many observers have expressed confidence in Johansson being able to transition smoothly to the North American game because of his solid defensive foundations. While there is bound to be an adjustment period and concerns have been raised about the accuracy of his shot, Johansson should be firmly in the mix for a roster spot with the Wings in the Fall.

In terms of historical comparables, a player like Matt Carle looks quite statistically similar to Johansson at the moment: a 30–40-point, two-way defenseman who played over 700 NHL games. Hockey Prospecting gives Johansson an 81% chance of playing at least 200 games and a 25% chance of averaging above 37 points over his career. As part of an exciting Red Wings team that includes a dynamic young core composed of players like Lucas Raymond, Jakub Vrana, Filip Zadina, and Simon Edvinsson, Johansson should become a useful player in fantasy before long.

Allsvenskan: Emil Andrae (PHI)

Andrae is yet another small offensive defenseman (5-9, 183 lbs) who skates well and has a solid defensive toolkit. With 17 points in 22 games (0.77 ppg), he's fourth in the league in points per game, just narrowly behind the top three (0.78, 0.78, 0.79). This strong season has him looking like a Johansson clone in terms of probabilities: 81% chance of playing 200 NHL games and 25% chance of becoming a star producer.

Yet while Niemela and Johansson have already played 92 and 123 games respectively in professional men's leagues, Andrae only has 41 SHL games under his belt to this point. He scored seven points over that stretch, during which he was 18 and 19 years old, and has played all of this year in the lower-tier Allsvenskan. Given his comparative lack of experience, he should be considered a longer wait than the other two and thus knocked down a peg or two on fantasy rankings.

It's a shame the World Juniors were cancelled. Andrae was Sweden's captain and came out of the gates strong with two points in their first (and only) two games. The month before at the U20 Four Nations Cup, he was named Top Defenseman.

Here's his goal on Yaroslav Askarov (Russia) at the WJC. He times his shot perfectly to take advantage of the player in front screening the goalie:

If he can jump to the SHL full-time next year and maintain his offensive production and intelligent defensive play, Andrae will likely transition to North America shortly after that and start seeing games for the Flyers as early as 2023-24, though there will likely be some AHL time sprinkled in there too. One thing to keep in mind with Andrae is that as a smaller player he'll probably take 400 games instead of the usual 200 to reach his Breakout Threshold—which is a more accurate version of the traditional fourth-year breakout theory. He'll be a long wait but it's going to be fun watching him develop.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.