Eastern Edge: Strong Starts to 2022, Including Skinner, Haula, and Nyquist
Brennan Des
2022-01-18
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll look at players who have quietly had strong starts to 2022.
Skinner has five goals and one assist through six appearances in 2022. During this stretch, he's spent most of his minutes beside Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, who each have four points through four games in the calendar year. Despite creating fewer scoring chances and high danger opportunities than their opponents, the trio has outscored the opposition 3-1. Being out-chanced isn't a recipe for long-term success, but the sample size is still small as Skinner, Thompson and Tuch have played together for just 25 minutes at even-strength.
Each player possesses a fair amount of individual talent, but they often fly under the radar due to the market they play in. Being on a bad team essentially ensures they'll be undervalued in most fantasy formats (call it the plus-minus overreaction effect), but that also makes them easier to acquire, as all three players are still available in the majority of fantasy leagues. Fantasy playoff schedules have gotten more complicated with all the postponements in recent weeks, but the Sabres still seem like a good team to target during the home stretch. They play often in late-March/early-April, with numerous off-day matchups. Skinner, Thompson or Tuch could be the ace up your sleeve on your championship run this year.
The Bruins shuffled their lines to start 2022, splitting up the 'Perfection Line' in favour of two strong trios. The new-look lines feature Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand alongside Craig Smith, while Erik Haula centers Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak.
Since these new lines were put together, everyone's been raving about the chemistry between Hall and Pastrnak. The praise is justified because both players have played very well since being put together. However, the final member of that line hasn't received the same amount of recognition despite significant improvement in his offensive numbers.
Since joining forces with Hall and Pastrnak, Haula has seven points in nine appearances – which translates to 0.78 points per game. Earlier in the season, he spent most of his time in the bottom-six and posted just five points in 25 games (0.20 points/game). His ice time hasn't really changed, as he's hovered around the 15-minute mark during both stretches. Thus, it's fair to conclude that Haula's improved offensive output is a product of his upgraded line mates. That does concern me a bit because it suggests he needs good line mates to produce and isn't capable of driving offense himself. His spot between Hall and Pastrnak isn't set in stone, so falling off that line could cause a steep decline in production. With that being said, Haula is currently available in 88% of Yahoo Leagues, so you can acquire him easily and hold on as long as he's centering Hall and Pastrnak.
During the 2021 portion of this season, Nyquist had 11 points in 29 outings (0.38 points/game) and was averaging just over 16 minutes of action per game. In 2022, he's skating nearly 18 minutes a night and leads the Blue Jackets with nine points through seven games (1.29 points/game). To provide some perspective, Boone Jenner sits second in team scoring during this stretch with four points.
During this hot streak, Nyquist has spent most of his even-strength minutes beside Jenner and Patrik Laine – a combination that the advanced stats don't exactly endorse. In 55 minutes of ice time together, the trio has been outshot (Corsi For % = 46.7) and out-chanced (Scoring Chances For % = 45.24), generating fewer high-quality chances than the opposition (High Danger Chances For % = 31.58; stats via NaturalStatTrick). Given Patrik Laine's reputation as a one-dimensional player who can't play defense, you'd think his line would see favourable deployment in the attacking zone. However, they've actually been deployed for more faceoffs in the defensive zone (21) than the offensive zone (14).
I don't see anything which suggests Nyquist's current hot streak is a product of his line mates. While Nyquist has nine points in his last seven games, Jenner only has four, and Laine only has two. Some may argue that his improved output is explained by the recently increased ice time. However, I don't think a minute-and-a-half increase is the sole catalyst behind his ascension from 0.38 points per game to 1.29 points per game. I'm more inclined to believe that Nyquist is currently riding a bit of luck. He's scored on 36.4% of his shots during this stretch and two of his nine points have come on the penalty kill, which isn't a sustainable source of offense. In addition, he isn't seeing a prominent role on the power-play, so I'm not all that optimistic about his offensive potential going forward.
Through six outings in 2022, the Leafs forward has five goals and one assist. I think he has the talent to be a productive player, but his current position on the Leafs depth chart limits his offensive ceiling. Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander take up four of the six spots in the team's top two lines, with Michael Bunting and Alexander Kerfoot claiming those last two openings. When Marner was sidelined with injury, Ondrej Kase was the one who stepped into the top-six – not Mikheyev.
Three of Mikheyev's six points have come with the man advantage, but he's seeing just 33% of Toronto's total power-play time, entrenched on the second unit with minimal hope for promotion. Given his minor role with the man advantage, I wouldn't count on significant power-play production from Mikheyev going forward.