Ramblings: Crosby, Husso, February Schedule, Droppable Goalies (Jan 22)

Ian Gooding

2022-01-22

Sidney Crosby isn't quite the goal scorer that he used to be. However, he managed to complete the 12th hat trick of his career while adding an assist on Friday. Crosby has power-play goals in back-to-back games, goals in three consecutive games and points in four consecutive games. He's also taken 18 shots over his last four games. Not that you'd need us to tell you to start Crosby, but just in case you thought his overall production is slipping as he enters his mid-30s. He's still over a point-per-game this season (31 PTS in 28 GP) and also every season over his entire career.

I wonder if Crosby likes to play pool in his spare time with this bank shot empty-netter.

With a goal and two assists on Friday against his former Ranger teammates, Tony DeAngelo now has back-to-back three-point games. Those who rolled the dice on TDA have reaped the rewards. The production (31 PTS in 30 GP) shouldn't come as much of a surprise as the fact that he seems to be incident-free. The takeaway from that? There's a chance that Evander Kane might not be that bad of an investment. Not saying it will happen, but there's a chance. Someone in nearly half of Yahoo leagues and over half of Fantrax leagues believes Kane is worth a roster spot.

Among defensemen with a minimum of 25 games, only five other d-men have a higher point-per-game average than DeAngelo (1.03 PTS/GP). The fact that TDA has been able to deliver even more offense than Dougie Hamilton at a much cheaper cap hit should be considered a major reason that the Canes are at the top of the Metropolitan Division.

Teuvo Teravainen left this game with a lower-body injury, which appeared to be a result of a hit from Barclay Goodrow. Although it doesn't appear to be a serious injury, his availability for today (Saturday) appears uncertain.

Sebastian Aho has 22 points in his last 13 games, including a goal and two assists on Friday.

With his 17-save shutout of the Coyotes, Ilya Sorokin has seven quality starts over his last seven games. Over that stretch he has a 5-1-1 record with a 1.69 GAA and a .940 SV%. Meanwhile, Semyon Varlamov has four consecutive quality starts, with a 1.49 GAA and .959 SV% over those four games. The Islanders have failed to meet expectations this season, but there hasn't been anything wrong with their goalies since about mid-December. After sputtering out of the gate, the Isles have won six of their last seven games. And as you'll find out in a bit, there's another reason to target Islanders for your fantasy team.

Over his last 12 games, Tyler Bertuzzi has 10 goals and 17 points. That includes his three-point game on Friday, which puts Bertuzzi over the point-per-game mark (35 points in 33 games). I'm not sure where Jakub Vrana fits in when he finally returns to the lineup from his season-long injury, but I'm not sold on him bumping Bertuzzi off the top line with Dylan Larkin. It's not just a combination that benefits Bertuzzi, but also Larkin.

From the Midseason Guide (purchase yours if you haven't already):

Larkin seems to be more productive when Bertuzzi's playing. Larkin has 1.22 points per game when Bertuzzi's in the lineup and 0.57 points per game without him.

With a 27-save shutout of Seattle on Friday, Ville Husso now has four consecutive wins and six consecutive quality starts. Over those six games, Husso has a 1.84 GAA and .947 SV%. Husso has started three of the Blues' last four games, making him a must-start at the moment. More on what to do about the St. Louis goaltending situation in a bit, although it’s also a good time to bring up the fact that Jordan Binnington has just three quality starts in his last 13 games (and a 3.48 GAA/.891 SV% over that span).

Because Thatcher Demko and Jaroslav Halak are both in COVID protocol, Spencer Martin received the start for the Canucks. Martin looked dependable, stopping 33 of 34 shots in an eventual 2-1 shootout loss. For those wondering why prospect Mike DiPietro wasn't the next man up, AHL veteran Martin (2.24 GAA, .921 SV%) has been better than DiPietro (3.19 GAA, .896 SV%) in the A this season. The fact that DiPietro played only four games last season due to spending significant time on the Canucks' taxi squad may be stunting his development. Martin seems like a probable starter on Sunday against St. Louis.

For those of you who play Yahoo, you may have heard that they sent out a notice today stating that they had broken up the month-long Olympic break where the previously postponed games will take place.

If you'd like some guidance in navigating that entire block of games, this week's Frozen Tools Forensics breaks down both teams and players to target and avoid for that period. Keep in mind that the article was written before the entire break's schedule was further subdivided by Yahoo. There are going to be some vastly different numbers of games played during that period, with teams playing anywhere between six and 13 games. Generally speaking, Canadian-based teams have the games played advantage, because they've also had the most games postponed.

And of course, Frozen Tools is here to help.

After Friday's games, here are the remaining games to be played by team. Even more of a disparity than the one in February. Load up on Islanders and Senators, and sell your Ducks?

TeamGR
NEW YORK ISLANDERS 49
OTTAWA SENATORS 49
CALGARY FLAMES 47
MINNESOTA WILD 46
WINNIPEG JETS 46
EDMONTON OILERS 46
CAROLINA HURRICANES 45
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 45
BOSTON BRUINS 45
COLORADO AVALANCHE 44
DALLAS STARS 44
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 44
NEW JERSEY DEVILS 44
ARIZONA COYOTES 43
MONTREAL CANADIENS 43
FLORIDA PANTHERS 42
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 42
ST. LOUIS BLUES 42
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 42
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 42
BUFFALO SABRES 42
SEATTLE KRAKEN 42
NEW YORK RANGERS 41
WASHINGTON CAPITALS 41
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 41
LOS ANGELES KINGS 41
SAN JOSE SHARKS 41
VANCOUVER CANUCKS 41
DETROIT RED WINGS 41
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 40
NASHVILLE PREDATORS 40
ANAHEIM DUCKS 39

In yesterday's Ramblings, I mentioned that I would rather have a strong backup on my roster than a poor starter. First off, I'll qualify that statement saying that it doesn't necessarily mean you should drop your poorly performing starter for a backup with strong numbers. Goalie performance changes all the time, as do starter/backup situations. That being said, a goalie with subpar numbers will damage to your goaltending numbers each week. As I've said before, goalie performance is far more volatile than player performance, so you have to stay on top of things in whichever way possible.

Thinking about this topic further, I figured I'd try to define which goalies I think are droppable at the moment. For that, I'll sort goalies by lowest goals-saved above average (GSAA). In case you're not sure what GSAA, Frozen Tools states that it "calculates goal differential between goalie and league average (positive is better)."

My cutoff point will be slightly negative GSAA, since goalies at that point could theoretically be above zero with another quality start or two. I've also selected goalies with a minimum of 10 games played – not necessarily all starters, but enough of a sample size to know what they're about this season. Stats were collected before Friday's games.

NameTeamGPQSQS%RBSRBS%GSAAGSAA/60
PHILIPP GRUBAUERSEA29724.1827.6-20.70-0.77
JOONAS KORPISALOCBJ14321.4428.6-12.55-0.97
MACKENZIE BLACKWOODN.J23834.8313-10.99-0.52
MIKKO KOSKINENEDM21733.3523.8-10.22-0.51
SCOTT WEDGEWOODARI17529.415.9-8.61-0.53
KEVIN LANKINENCHI11327.3327.3-8.61-0.80
SPENCER KNIGHTFLA15533.3426.7-8.46-0.63
FILIP GUSTAVSSONOTT12433.3433.3-7.49-0.66
THOMAS GREISSDET16743.8425-7.20-0.53
JAKE ALLENMTL241041.7729.2-7.08-0.32
ROBIN LEHNERVGK291137.9413.8-6.55-0.23
AARON DELLBUF11218.2218.2-5.68-0.67
CAL PETERSENL.A15960320-4.96-0.33
ILYA SAMSONOVWSH21733.3314.3-4.63-0.23
ADIN HILLS.J231043.5521.7-4.51-0.21
CHRIS DRIEDGERSEA11327.3327.3-4.08-0.45
LAURENT BROSSOITVGK14642.9214.3-3.63-0.31
SAM MONTEMBEAULTMTL16318.800-3.63-0.27
DUSTIN TOKARSKIBUF14750428.6-3.46-0.27
JORDAN BINNINGTONSTL22836.429.1-3.28-0.15

Since I believe nuance is necessary with numbers, I won't use the blanket statement "drop all the goalies above." But I will hand pick a few goalies that I would definitely drop and a few more that I would not drop. The ones in between are probably droppable, although as always that depends on factors such as league size and who else is available. The below analysis is based on single-season formats, so you might drop Spencer Knight in a non-keeper format but not a keeper format. (Yes, I will acknowledge that Knight looked solid in a 27-save 2-1 shootout win over the Canucks on Friday.)

DROPPABLE

Philipp Grubauer – Easily the worst GSAA of the bunch. Having said that, he has posted back-to-back wins and quality starts. The Seattle beat writers I follow say that Grubauer has played well recently. But even after those two games, his really bad starts (8) are still higher than his quality starts (7). With home games against Florida and Nashville before an eastern road trip, it might be time to cut your losses anyway.

Mikko Koskinen – See yesterday's Ramblings for more. Or just watch an Oilers game. They play Calgary tonight in the second Hockey Night in Canada game, so you won't have to wait very long. Regardless, I'm not sure which direction the Oilers go in net, but I'm not holding onto Koskinen while they try to figure that out.

Joonas Korpisalo – He's only 7 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues, so there aren't a lot of rosters out there that he can be dropped from. But given how high his GSAA is with relatively fewer games, he's not someone you should be adding to your roster if you're considering it. On a side note, if you're the Oilers, would you really want to replace Koskinen with someone like Korpisalo? That's rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic kind of stuff.

Mackenzie Blackwood – Given his higher QS% and lower RBS% than the goalies around him, and the fact the Devils have no one else, I wouldn't necessarily drop him in every single format. But he would be glued to my bench at best, and he would definitely be gone from my team in a shallower format.

NOT DROPPABLE (but bench)

Robin Lehner – The numbers haven't been great, and Lehner has battled injuries (again). But you probably spent a high pick on Lehner, and Vegas will be a true contender once everyone is back. Maybe Lehner is even a potential buy low here.

Jordan Binnington – Husso is a better start than Binnington at the moment, given the recent play of both. St. Louis is strong again, so you definitely want whoever their starter is. If Binnington finds his form, then he'll be back to carrying the mail, given the equity he has built up with the Stanley Cup and the contract. For now, keep him on your bench and be selective as to when you start him. Meanwhile, see if you can find a way to fit Husso onto your roster, as he appears to be on the verge of going on a little run. He is just 29 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues.

Ilya Samsonov – Similar to St. Louis, Washington is a playoff team that should be good for enough wins. Because of his struggles this season, Samsonov has been forced into a timeshare with Vitek Vanecek, so he is already at the point that Binnington is heading toward. Like Binnington, Samsonov should be okay to keep if you look for the favorable matchups.  

Adin Hill and Cal Petersen – I know someone will comment on these two if I leave them in the "droppable" category. I wouldn't put them in the same tier as the three goalies directly above because I don't think they'll earn as many wins, but just use your judgement. If you don't think you should drop them, then don't.

Finally, rest in peace Clark Gillies. A legend from those dominant Islanders teams of the early 1980s is no longer with us.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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