Wild West: Updated MVPs and MDPs
Grant Campbell
2022-01-24
We looked at some of the early MVPs and MDPs from each team in the West on November 8 and now that we are at the midseason mark, I thought we could revisit and see what players have emerged or continued their fine year or vice versa.
Anaheim
MVP: Troy Terry (Ryan Getzlaf was the earlier MVP)
This was a tough one, between Getzlaf and Terry but I just couldn't ignore Terry's 22 goals to Getzlaf's two. Terry was just voted into the All-Star Game by the fans, and deservedly so, as he leads the team in goals and has 36 points in 38 games. His shooting percentage of 24.4 will more than likely come down a little, but his point totals are sustainable as his 5on5 SH% is 8.3 is not particularly high.
Because he has been with Getzlaf for the most part, his OZ starts are low at 43.4 percent (allows Trevor Zegras and Sonny Milano easier matchups), but he still has maintained a very good CF% of 52.9. In the eight games, Terry played without Getzlaf in the lineup he had four goals and three assists and was a plus-two.
Most Disappointing Player (MDP): Sam Steel (Max Comtois)
Steel is at a crossroads with the Ducks after 164 NHL games. He will be 24-years old in a week and has four goals and six assists in 35 games so far this season. His shot rate is at 1.1/game, down from his career average of 1.2. In his past 77 games, he has 10 goals 12 assists and 81 SOG and has seen his ice-time go down to a career-low of 12:22 per game. He is the fourth center in Anaheim on the depth chart, but he struggles a little without the puck, so his situation might be untenable in Anaheim.
Comtois came back from injury and has been better, as well as benefitting from Terry and Zegras missing some games due to Covid. In the nine games since his return, he has two goals, three assists and is even in plus/minus.
Arizona
MVP: Clayton Keller (Lawson Crouse)
Keller has 20 points in his last 18 games, to bring his yearly totals to 15 goals and 16 assists in 40 games with 115 SOG. Because the PP has struggled so much in Arizona this year, Keller only has four PP points, so his production is even more impressive. At 0.78 pts/game, he is just a little below the pace for the 65-point rookie season he had in 2017-18 and had struggled to match since.
Crouse is still having a good season (39-10-10-20) but has been passed by Keller and Shayne Gostisbehere for value. He still leads the team in hits (104) and is playing 17:54 minutes per night.
MDP: Jakob Chychrun
Chychrun continues to struggle and had missed 11 games with an upper-body injury he sustained in early December. He has played three games since his return to the lineup with one assist and a minus two. He now has two goals, six assists and is a whopping minus-31 in 29 games played. There is still hope for a turnaround as his 5on5 SH% is very low still at 5.4 and his PDO is 91.7 which should reflect an improvement in his plus/minus.
Calgary
MVP: Johnny Gaudreau (Elias Lindholm)
With 15 goals and 29 assists in 36 games, Gaudreau is currently at a career-high of 1.22 pts/game pace. He had 99 points in 2018-19 which was 1.21 pts/game. He becomes an unrestricted free agent after this season so he could challenge those numbers once again but some of his metrics suggest he might come down a little. His PDO is a little high at 106.3 as well as his PTS/60 of 4.0. Gaudreau is currently at 3.4 shots/game which is the highest in his career. When he scored 36 goals in 2018-19 his shot rate was 3.0.
After 14 points in his first 11 games, Lindholm has cooled slightly with 17 points over his past 25 games. Andrew Mangiapane has 18 goals after 36 games but only has three goals and one assist in his past 17 games. Jacob Markstrom has been very good this season with 13 wins in 27 games, a 92.4 save percentage and a GSAA of 10.11.
MDP: Sean Monahan
Perhaps Dillon Dube might be a little disappointing to fans and fantasy owners with his lack of production (36-4-7-11) at this point. Monahan makes over $6 million a year and even though he did get two goals on January 18th, he has six goals and 12 assists in 36 games on the year and is on pace for a 40-45 point season. In my mind, he still has to be the most disappointing Flame this season.
Chicago
MVP: Seth Jones (Patrick Kane)
This is a close race between Seth Jones, Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat and our MDP after the first month, Marc-Andre Fleury. I'm going with Seth Jones as he has produced (37-3-23-26), hit (50), blocked shots (74) and been a mainstay on the power play (69.3%) and the penalty kill (38.3%) all while playing 26 minutes a night. Even though he is a minus 15, I don't think it reflects his defensive play as his CF% of 49.6 is among the better Blackhawk defenders.
Kane (37-9-26-35) who we had as our MVP in November started the season with five goals and six assists in his first seven games. Since then, he has had four goals and 20 assists in his past 28 games. His production is still quite impressive, but at 0.96 pts/game, it is off his pace of the three years prior, where he was between 1.18 and 1.36.
DeBrincat has 24 goals in 41 games and is on pace for 48, which is above his career-high of 41 goals in 2018-19. He already has 10 PPGs, compared to the 13 he had when he scored 41 goals.
Fleury has bounced back after only one win in his first eight starts and has 12 wins in his past 20 starts to go along with a save percentage of 92.5 and a GSAA of 5.39.
MDP: Dominik Kubalik (Marc-Andre Fleury)
This comes down to Kubalik or Dylan Strome and only because Kubalik has posted 0.68 pts/game in both his prior years with the Blackhawks, his nine goals and seven assists in 41 games (0.39) this year has to be disappointing for fantasy owners and fans of the team. The good news might be that his PDO of 97.0 and his 5on5 SH% of 6.3 are both low and indicate some reversion, but probably not to the extent of his prior output.
Colorado
MVP: Nazem Kadri (Gabriel Landeskog)
I have to give full value to Kadri and the year he has had so far (36-15-36-51). With injuries/Covid to Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin and others, Kadri has been consistent since the start of the season and has just started to show signs of slowing down with only nine points in his past nine games.
MacKinnon now has nine goals and 42 points in 29 games and leads the team with 133 shots on goal. He is coming on fast with eight goals and 24 assists in his past 21 games. If he's healthy he's the team MVP hands down.
MDP: Darcy Kuemper (Samuel Girard)
It is tough to put this distinction on Kuemper when he has won 19 of his 28 games, but the Avalanche have won for him, not because of him. He has been better of late and overall has a save percentage of 91.3 and a GSAA of 1.42 and most importantly he has been healthy. With Pavel Francouz back and playing, it could help Kuemper get to a level that we had seen from 2018-19 and 2019-20 in Arizona, where he wasn't faced with 75 percent of the starts.
Ryan Murray (21-0-4-4; 14:15 min/g) might be in the mix as the Avalanche might have been hoping for more than 14 or 15 minutes per night.
Girard (37-4-19-23) has elevated his game after his slow start of two assists and a minus-six in his first seven games. He has four goals and 17 assists and is a plus-six in his past 30 games.
Dallas
MVP: Joe Pavelski (Miro Heiskanen)
After four goals and five assists in his first 15 games, Pavelski (38-16-27-43) has found a gear at 37-years of age that is bordering on unbelievable. He has 12 goals and 22 assists in his last 23 games. As long as his line with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz is healthy and together, Pavelski has a chance to get to a point-per-game for the first time in his career.
Heiskanen has slowed after his first 11 games when he had 11 points, as he has had 13 points in his past 26 games.
MDP: Alexander Radulov (Roope Hintz)
Radulov only played 10 games last season, so the benefit of the doubt should give him about 20-30 games before passing judgment. He's played 32 games this year with one goal and 11 assists and is a minus-11. In his past 19 games, he has no goals, with five assists, 30 SOG and is a minus-8. Radulov has a very low 5on5 SH% of 4.4 and a PDO of 97.8, so there should be better days ahead.
Hintz had a super slow start to the season with only two assists in his first 11 games. Since then, he has had 17 goals and 13 assists on 78 SOG in 25 games.
Edmonton:
MVP: Leon Draisaitl/Connor McDavid (no change)
Nothing has changed here, and nothing will as long as one of McDavid (36-19-36-55) or Draisaitl (37-28-30-58) is in Edmonton over the next four or five years.
Since we last wrote about MVPs in November, Draisaitl has 18 goals and 17 assists in 26 games and McDavid has 11 goals and 22 assists in 25 games. Draisaitl has seen his shooting percentage go from 30.3 down to 23.1 which is more sustainable for him. His PDO has also gone from 111.4 to 100.7, which we have seen reflected in his production and 5on5 SH% goes from 15.8 down to 10.1.
McDavid has seen his 5on5 SH% go from 10.5 (low for him) to an even lower 7.2 currently. McDavid hasn't surged ahead of Draisaitl yet, but he should at some point.
MDP: Zach Hyman (Kailer Yamamoto)
Including Hyman here is solely from a fantasy standpoint, as I'm sure some people had him pegged for 60-70 points. After 32 games he has 11 goals and 10 assists and is on pace for 0.66 pts/game which is about 50-55 points. Even with his PP percentage at 57.5, it hasn't translated into points yet as he only has three PPGs and five PPPs so far.
Even more, concerning for Hyman is that he has struggled since teasing his fantasy owners with seven goals and three assists in his first 10 games as an Oiler. Since then he has had four goals and seven assists in 22 games.
Yamamoto has improved his production a little after just two goals in his first 10 games, with six goals and five assists in his last 27 games.
Los Angeles
MVP: Anze Kopitar (no change)
I considered Drew Doughty (22-4-17-21) for this distinction but the team has only 11 wins and 12 losses with him in the lineup and 10 wins and five losses when he's not. The MVP still goes to Kopitar (42-13-23-36) even though he has slowed down a little with six goals and 16 assists in his past 31 games. His shot pace was 3.3/game and is now at a more normal level of 2.7 and should continue to drop a little.
MDP: Lias Andersson (Gabriel Vilardi)
Andersson (13-0-1-1) is now 23 years of age and was the 7th overall pick of the NY Rangers in 2017. He is infamous for throwing his silver medal into the stands at the World Juniors in 2018 when he was the captain of Team Sweden. He was traded to the Kings for a 2nd round 60th overall pick (Will Cuylle) in 2020, which seemed like cents on the dollar at the time, but makes more sense now.
He has played 102 NHL games and has six goals and 10 assists, but has battled more than his share of injuries. I had hopes for him when he moved to the Kings, but those hopes are pretty much over now.
Vilardi (7-1-0-1) was sent to the AHL and has been there since mid-November where he has seven goals and 10 assists in 18 games.
Minnesota
MVP: Kirill Kaprizov (Matt Dumba)
Kaprizov (36-17-30-47) has taken over the role of MVP in Minnesota even more than he did last season. Kaprizov is now on pace for 106 points, which even for him might be a tad high, as his PDO is 104.6, 5on5 SH% of 14.2 and a pts/60 at 4.1, which are all a little high. In his past 20 games, he has 13 goals and 19 assists which is a 1.6 pts/game pace. He has helped Ryan Hartman (37-18-14-32) and Mats Zuccarello (31-11-25-36) be more productive than they otherwise would be this season.
After his quick start of two goals and seven assists in his first 11 games, Dumba has only two goals and seven assists in his past 25 games.
MDP: Jordan Greenway (no change)
After 32 points in 56 games last season, Greenway (30-4-7-11) has seen his production this season prove that last seasons was an anomaly. His role is more of a shutdown forward and his offensive zone starts are now at 38.9% down from 42.1% last season. For anyone like myself hoping that there was still progression point-wise with Greenway, I think his PDO of 105.5 and his 5on5 SH% of 11.3 indicate that his current production should come down as it is.
Nashville
MVP: Juuse Saros/Roman Josi (no change)
Nothing has changed in Nashville as Josi (41-13-29-42) and Saros who has 22 wins in 35 games with a save percentage of 92.5 and a GSAA of 15.63 continue to lead this team. Josi's metrics seem fairly sustainable so a 75-80 point season is within his reach. His career-high is 65 points in 69 games in 2019-20.
Matt Duchene has re-entered the conversation in Nashville once again with 19 goals and 19 assists in 39 games, while Filip Forsberg has 20 goals and 12 assists in 30 games.
MDP: Mattias Ekholm (no change)
Ekholm (39-2-10-12) has improved his production after starting the year with only two assists in his first 12 games as he has two goals and eight assists in his past 27 games. He has brought his hit and blocked shot rate back to his normal career norms of 65-70 hits and 90-110 hits. He has also improved his CF% from 45.7 to 49.6, so will more than likely get above 50 again, as he has done in each of his NHL seasons.
San Jose
MVP: Timo Meier (no change)
Meier (37-21-25-46) had a very good start with five goals and six assists in his first eight games. Since then he has maintained his pace with 16 goals and 19 assists in his last 29 games. He leads the Sharks with 152 shots on goal which is 4.1/game and might be hard for him to sustain.
MDP: Kevin Labanc (Nick Bonino)
Labanc (21-3-3-6) has battled injuries (including a dislocated shoulder) and Covid and has only played 21 games this season. Entering this season, Labanc had played 339 NHL games and averaged 0.52 points/game but his role has changed to more of a checking role (38.3 percent OZ starts this year).
Bonino was pointless after his first 11 games this year in San Jose and over his past 30 games has five goals and two assists. His offensive zone starts are 35.8 percent but his range has been 30-38 percent since 2017-18 where his production has ranged between 0.35 and 0.52 pts/game.
Seattle
MVP: Jared McCann (Yanni Gourde)
McCann (36-15-9-24) is on pace for a 30-goal season and is only four goals off his career-high of 19 that he scored in 2018-19. He leads the team with 91 shots on goal and his CF% is 51.1.
Gourde has struggled a little in Seattle after a fairly good start of six points in his first eight games where he averaged 20:56/game. Since then he has had 14 points in his last 24 games and has seen his ice time come down to an average of has18:50.
MDP: Philip Grubauer (Calle Jarnkrok)
Grubauer has 10 wins in 30 games and has struggled with a save percentage of 88.4 and a GSAA of minus 20.94 which is last in the NHL
Jarnkrok had a very cold start to his time in Seattle, with no points in his first 12 games along with being minus eight. He missed three games with an injury in late November and since then has played 18 games with seven goals and seven assists while being an even plus/minus. He has been the player the Kraken envisioned him to be.
St. Louis
MVP: Vladimir Tarasenko (no change)
Tarasenko (37-14-24-38) is back and the Blues are happy to have him (his trade request notwithstanding). Hopefully, he can get his CF% of 46.0 to the level it was for the eight seasons before 2020-21, where it was consistently 53 or higher.
MDP: Jordan Binnington (Pavel Buchnevich)
Binnington has 11 wins in 22 games and has a save percentage of 90.6 and a GSAA of minus 3.28. Ville Husso has started the past three games for the Blues and this split might prove interesting in the second half as Binnington has played more than 65 percent of the games over the past three seasons in St. Louis.
Buchnevich (35-15-21-36) had the only slow start in St. Louis with two goals and three points in his first eight games. Since then, he has had 13 goals and 20 assists in his past 27 games.
Vancouver
MVP: Thatcher Demko (no change)
Demko has 17 wins in 32 games with a save percentage of 91.7 and a GSAA of 5.73. These stats sell him short as he has been great for Vancouver this season and he will be the only reason they make the playoffs if they do.
MDP: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Elias Pettersson)
Ekman-Larsson (38-2-5-7) is on pace for 15 points after averaging about 40 points for his career. Sure the power-play has been a big part of his production before being in Vancouver, with seven seasons above 14 PPPs in a year for him. His defensive game has been better than I thought it would be but I also thought he would be a sure thing for 30-35 points.
Pettersson (41-9-12-21) has shown signs of turning his season around and he has three goals and an assist in his past four games, but there are still concerns about him getting back to a point-per-game.
Vegas
MVP: Alex Pietrangelo (Chandler Stephenson)
Pietrangelo (39-6-20-26) does more than put up 50-55 points per year as he kills penalties, plays solid defensively and blocks shots (83). In 80 games in Vegas now he has 13 goals, 36 assists, is a plus-23, has 59 hits and 163 blocked shots and has averaged just over 25 minutes per game.
Stephenson (40-12-26-38) started the season without Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty and still managed three goals and six assists in those 10 games. Since then, he has had nine goals and 20 assists in 30 games and has a chance to put up 65-75 points this season.
MDP: Robin Lehner (Mattias Janmark)
Lehner has put up an impressive 16 wins in 29 games but has struggled a little with a save percentage of 90.3 and a GSAA of minus 6.55. It has been even more evident in his past 15 games where he has eight wins, a save percentage of 88.9 and a GSAA of minus 9.07 during that period.
After starting with only one assist in his first seven games, Janmark (36-7-8-15) has seven goals and seven assists in the 29 games since to get back to the production level he has consistently produced for his career. His ice time has increased from 11 minutes per game up to over 14 minutes per game.
Winnipeg
MVP: Kyle Connor (no change)
Connor (38-22-19-41) had a great start with eight goals and 16 points in the first 11 games and since then has 14 goals and 11 assists in his last 27 games, so his pace has slowed a little.
He leads the team in goals, points, shots on goal (168) while averaging 21:38 of ice time. His shots per game are still a little high at 4.4, but his other metrics have come down to a normal range for his current production to be maintained.
MDP: Mark Scheifele (Blake Wheeler)
Scheifele (32-10-18-28) missed the first game of the season because of his suspension from the last game of the playoffs last season against Montreal and he has never really got his game together since as he has missed a combined eight games due to Covid.
Scheifele hasn't been below a point-per-game since the 2015-16 season and is currently at 0.88/game so he's not far off and he does have 11 points in his last nine games. The signs are pointing in the right direction.
Wheeler (24-2-17-19) had his usual slow start with two points in his first six games but has had 17 points in his past 18 games. He missed nine games with a knee injury and since his return has two points in two games.
There have been a few interesting takes from doing this. Some of the most disappointing players from early November have lifted their games and some like Marc-Andre Fleury could be the current MVPs. The lesson here is to look at the reasons behind some of the struggles and see if there are some indications of a turnaround. There are some buying opportunities out there for some of these players.
Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.