21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles
Dobber Sports
2022-02-06
Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber
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1. It isn’t much of a stretch to say that Nazem Kadri was the first-half fantasy MVP. He is currently a top-10 fantasy option and considering where he was drafted before the season, his value is through the roof. He has more assists (41) than games played (40), and then we get to the fact he’s on pace for nearly 40 goals. It has put a 100-point season in reach, which is just absurd considering he has one 60-point season to his name, back in 2016-17.
We would naturally assume a lot of pullback, and the team is shooting a career-best 12.6% with him on the ice at 5-on-5. That is high, and will come down, but the team is also generating a career-best in shots and expected goals with him on the ice. There will be pullback, but I don’t see him falling off the map. (feb1)
2. We have half a season to go but it would be foolish not to mention what an absolute star Jonathan Huberdeau has been this year. He leads the league in points, and it’s an unbelievable accomplishment. Not only is he doing that in a league with Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews, but he’s doing it without playing much at even strength with Aleksander Barkov.
Honestly, not much to say here. I want to see Huberdeau grab the Art Ross Trophy this year, if only to change things up from the usual winners over the last five years. That Florida team is something else to watch. (feb1)
3. It isn’t as if Juuse Saros has the perfect peripherals or anything, though a 0,927 save percentage is truly superb. It’s that he leads the league in starts and has maintained a top-5 save percentage in the league while doing so. With the Central having a few pretty good teams, Nashville could have been in real tough with anything approaching league-average save percentage. They are 12 points clear of Dallas, which gives them a comfortable lead, but Dallas does have some games in hand. All this is to say: without Saros playing as much as he has, and as well as he has, this might not be a playoff team by the end of the year.
Nashville has Yaroslav Askarov on the way as a first-round pick. Saros also only turns 27 years old in April and he has very good high-danger save percentage and goals saved above average numbers over the last three years. The goaltending situation is interesting. (feb1)
4. The NHL’s Skills Competition took place in Las Vegas last Friday evening. Here are the names (minus sponsors) and winners of each competition:
– Fastest Skater: Jordan Kyrou
– Save Streak: Jack Campbell / Andrei Vasilevskiy
– Fountain Face-Off: Zach Werenski
– Breakaway Challenge: Alex Pietrangelo
– 21 in ’22: Joe Pavelski
– Hardest Shot: Victor Hedman
– Accuracy Shooting: Sebastian Aho
If it were up to me, Trevor Zegras would have won the Breakaway Challenge. Not just because of the Dodgeball props, but because of the sheer skill that it takes to score blindfolded. Was the highlight of the evening for me. Honorable mention to Kirill Kaprizov with his Alex Ovechkin impersonation. I know that goal celebration irked a lot of people when it happened, but I was impressed by the creativity of it. (feb5)
To wrap it up, the Metropolitan Division is this season’s All-Star Game winner, defeating the Central Division 5-3. Claude Giroux was the game’s MVP, scoring two goals in the final and another goal and assist in the first win against the Pacific Division. One second-half question on the minds of many hockey fans will be whether Giroux will still be a Flyer at the trade deadline. The Flyers captain will be a UFA at the end of the season. (feb6)
5. Staying in Vegas, Golden Knights coach Peter DeBoer has stated that Jack Eichel could be cleared for contact in practice after the All-Star break. He won’t be ready to return immediately after the All-Star break, but I had projected he would be ready at the end of (what was) the Olympic break at the end of February. It sounds like he is on track to be in the lineup by that time. Imagine what an Eichel – Max Pacioretty – Mark Stone power play and perhaps even top line will look like. (feb5)
6. Semyon Varlamov missed the first month of the season because of injury. Then he got off to a slow start, failing to earn a win in his first seven games while posting a 3.29 GAA and .884 SV%. That meant he didn’t earn his first win of the season until December 16 – two months into the season. Moreover, Ilya Sorokin had been significantly outperforming him, seemingly claiming the “majority starter” role that Varlamov held last season.
Since December 16, Varlamov has posted a 1.87 GAA and .943 SV%, including six quality starts over his last seven games – much better numbers. Wins are still an issue, as only three of those games have resulted in wins for Varlamov. No team has scored fewer goals than the Islanders this season (93 GF). Arizona and Montreal have fewer goals per game, but you get the idea. The Islanders are a low-scoring team as we expected, although we probably didn’t think it would be this bad.
Varlamov might be worth a buy-low right now, however. The recent play demonstrates that. As well, don’t forget that the Isles have played fewer games (39) than any other team because of various game postponements. That means the potential split with Sorokin is less of an issue than it usually is. In other words, Varlamov could provide elite-level ratios in the second half, but he shouldn’t cost an elite-level price to acquire. (feb5)
7. Remember the Winter Classic when Jordan Kyrou and the Blues scored a whole bunch of goals and Cam Talbot got injured? In the one-month span since, the Wild have the league’s best team goals-against average (2.10 GAA). With Talbot on the shelf, Kaapo Kahkonen has done much of the heavy lifting with seven quality starts in eight games and no more than three goals allowed in any of those eight games. However, Talbot has recently returned, posting a 1.13 GAA and .958 SV% in the three games he has appeared in. Most recently, Talbot earned a 30-save shutout against the Blackhawks on Wednesday.
With Talbot now back, this is going to be an interesting goalie battle. I didn’t quite know how to project it in the Midseason Guide with Talbot injured at the Winter Classic, but I still gave Talbot about two-thirds of the remaining starts since Kahkonen had barely been used prior to Talbot’s injury. If I could have a do-over, though, I would project it closer to 50-50, or maybe even 55-45 in Talbot’s favor. Talbot will be the starter come playoff time because he has the bigger contract, but Kahkonen has definitely played his way into the mix. I took a flier on Kahkonen in one league moments after Talbot’s injury and he’s exceeded my expectations. And he has the better numbers than Talbot at the moment, albeit in fewer starts.
Like the Islanders, the Wild goalie tandem is one in which both goalies are worth rostering. They’re more likely to earn wins than the Isles goalies as well. A little competition might be good for Talbot, and he may be more effective on a per-start basis now that he isn’t going to be leaned on as heavily. (feb5)
8. The Anaheim Ducks have named Pat Verbeek as their new general manager. He will need to quickly decide whether the Ducks (currently occupying the #3 seed in the Pacific Division) should continue their playoff push or attempt to sell off UFAs-to-be Rickard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, and maybe even longtime Duck Ryan Getzlaf. It’s not an easy decision to make, as the Ducks probably didn’t expect to be in this spot entering the season. With the 31st– highest payroll in the entire league (only Buffalo is lower), the Ducks could go in either direction.
Writing about the trade deadline got me thinking: Check back to Dobber Hockey on Monday, March 21. That’s Trade Deadline Day.
On a side note, the Little Ball of Hate (Verbeek’s old nickname) is an example of how hockey nicknames aren’t what they used to be. (feb4)
9. Mason Marchment is in exclusive company as the only player to record a six-point game this season and he's now a point-per-game player (23 points in 22 games). Scoring is up, so 32 other players that have played at least as many games have a better point-per-game average than Marchment. That point-per-game pace is still remarkable from a player that you likely didn’t have on your fantasy radar.
Is there something there with Marchment fantasy-wise? He has benefitted from recent line juggling, as he is now on a unit with Sam Reinhart and Anton Lundell. I would imagine this arrangement will stick for a while, which will help Marchment. Arguably now the league’s strongest offense, Florida is deep enough now in that their top three lines are rosterable in most leagues, as opposed to the top two lines on the majority of teams. Obviously six-point games aren’t going to be a part of his future, and regression should be expected on some significantly higher than expected advanced stats (17.4 SH%, 15.1 5-on-5 SH%, 4.8 PTS/60, 1109 PDO).
If you’re thinking about adding Marchment, consider it only for the short term. Prior to this season, he simply hasn’t had any kind of track record when it comes to NHL production. He’s more valuable in a bangers format, as he averages just over two hits per game. After all, he is the son of hard-hitting former NHL d-man Bryan Marchment. (feb4)
10. Anton Lundell leads all rookies with a plus-25 ranking, so don’t be surprised if he forces his way in as a Calder Trophy finalist, particularly with the Panthers’ offense moving in such high gear. Because of his age, position, and the Panthers’ depth, Lundell simply isn’t going to get the looks on the top line and the first-unit power play.
However, Florida’s second-unit power play is nothing to sneeze at anyway, as Lundell is on the ice with solid scorers like Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe. Lundell’s offensive zone starts are at 45%, which shows his defensive ability, but it’s another reason that his short-term offensive upside is limited. Yet the fact that only three of his 32 points have been on the man advantage shows how productive he has been with the opportunities he has been given.
At this point, Lundell should be considered a solid depth piece in many fantasy leagues. The future looks very bright, so the Panthers may have no choice but to give him the top line and top power-play roles in the very near future. At that point he will need to be rostered in all formats. (feb4)
11. Matt Boldy now has 10 points in his first 10 NHL games. In addition, he has produced points in seven of those 10 games. Admittedly it’s a small sample size compared to the other big-name rookies (eg. Lundell, Trevor Zegras, Lucas Raymond), but no rookie that has played at least as many games has scored at the same pace as Boldy.
Although this should come as no surprise given Boldy’s strong start, Boldy was recently told that he will be staying with the Wild all season. Boldy has found a particular connection with Kevin Fiala, a frequent Frozen Tools search favorite. Keep in mind that Fiala’s 11-game point streak closely matches when Boldy was recalled from the AHL. Fiala himself had gotten off to a slow start, so Boldy’s callup is helping multiple players on the Wild.
Boldy looks like a player who could have been in the Calder Trophy discussion had he started the season in the NHL, but it’s probably a little late for that now. His midseason callup should explain why he is rostered in just 20 percent of Yahoo leagues. That number clearly needs to be higher. (feb4)
12. There was news that Ville Heinola was sent down to the AHL on Wednesday but we need to remember that the All-Star break is at hand. There is no need to keep the young guys on the roster and the taxi squad has been dissolved. We will see if he gets called back up after the break because him being a consistent part of this team could be a big part of their playoff push. Maybe I’m just a greedy fantasy owner. (feb3)
13. As long as he’s asymptomatic, last Wednesday's matchup versus the Oilers should be the only regular season game that Alex Ovechkin misses. Of course, as we saw with Nikita Kucherov earlier last week, just because he’s cleared doesn’t mean he’s necessarily ready. Though, as they say, Russian Machine Never Breaks. (feb3)
14. Let’s say, for sake of argument, that there is a World Cup of Hockey this summer. Let’s also say there’s a Team North America that will appear there. Remember how fun that team was last time? What would it look like this time around? I dug into that, and here’s what I found. These guys have to be 23 years old or younger by mid-May, which means we’re generally looking at the 2018 Draft or more recent. (Stats from Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, or Evolving Hockey.)
Who are the automatics? Who are the guys who could – heaven forbid – suffer a season-ending injury tomorrow and still be named to the team in July? There are several: Cale Makar, Brady Tkachuk, Jack Hughes, Quinn Hughes, Nick Suzuki, Jason Robertson, and Spencer Knight. That gives us a forward line, a defense pair, a starting goalie, and another defenceman.
One will notice that we have passed the window of the super-elite young stars. The guys like Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, and Alex DeBrincat have all graduated to their national teams. Young guns like Adam Fox and Brayden Point, meanwhile, are already too old and are also only eligible for their senior national teams. (Check out Mike's entire post about this by clicking on the link…) (feb3)
15. It’s February, so that means it’s time for Filip Forsberg to score a few extra goals. It seems as though every year he finds a little bit extra for “Filbruary”. Maybe a good guy to sell-high on at your league’s trade deadline in a month, but in the short-term, a good guy to have in your lineup. (feb2)
16. It sounds like we may get the World Juniors in August this year. It would be a great time to hold it as far as the fans are concerned, as August is an especially dead month when it comes to content. Time to stock up your minors system with WJC players again! (feb2)
17. Ryan Pulock returned for the Isles after missing a few extra weeks on top of the initial six weeks estimated for his broken ankle. This is great News for the Isles goalies, but it shouldn’t really affect the rest of the team much in terms of fantasy production. Noah Dobson shouldn’t have to look over his shoulder either, as he has entrenched himself as the go-to offensive defenceman on the team. Pulock saw third pairing minutes in his return, so he is getting eased back in. (feb2)
18. Jakob Chychrun is no longer on pace to set the NHL record for the lowest plus-minus rating. That’s not to say it can’t happen, but it does seem that the Coyotes have become a little bit more comfortable with who they are on the ice, and they’re less of a sieve defensively than they were at the start of the year.
Chychrun’s lowest TOI per game this season have all come in the last few games, though, which tells me either he’s still not 100% after returning from his injury, or that he’s lost a bit of the coaching staff’s trust. Neither bodes well for his production in the short term, and in any leagues where less than ~75 players are kept, he’s droppable at this point. (feb2)
19. Last week I mentioned that you should watch for Tyler Ennis, Adam Gaudette, and especially Alex Formenton with Drake Batherson (and now Josh Norris too) out of the lineup. In their last five games, the trio has racked up a combined 10 points. The Sens play five games before Valentine’s day, which means regardless of what kind of schedule your league is on, they have the highest volume of games coming up in the short term. (feb2)
20. K’Andre Miller has been so reliable defensively that it has allowed Jacob Trouba to open things up again. And now I’m kind of kicking myself for trading Trouba away last year for a song in my dynasty. Still not doing much on the power play, he nonetheless has 21 ES points and should finish the year with close to 45. That would be the second highest of his career. Trouba has 22 points in his last 35 games and eight in his last eight.
21. With three points in a losing effort Sunday, Artturi Lehkonen has 10 in his last 11 games and 18 in his last 30. This is easily the best scoring pace of his career. Well past his BT, he’s obviously the exception to the BT strategy. But he’s now worked his way up to third in team scoring despite zilch for PP time and the only player in Montreal’s Top 7 scorers to not see at least 17 minutes per game (he’s at 14:29).
The 26-year-old is an RFA in the summer and there is some trade interest out there to acquire him. A breakout season and a fresh start on a new team could make him a nice stash if one has the room for him on their fantasy squad. He’s been getting upwards of 18 or 19 minutes lately.
Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!
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