Ramblings: Dominant Demko, Wheeler’s Wonderful Game, Comeback Players – Larkin, Laine (Feb 13)

Ian Gooding

2022-02-13

Thatcher Demko spoiled the fun for the 50 percent (or more) of the Vancouver crowd that was cheering for the Leafs on Saturday. Demko made a career-high 51 saves in stealing a 3-2 Canucks win over Toronto. Since Bruce Boudreau took over, Demko has a sparkling .936 SV% to go with an 11-4-1 record and 2.02 GAA. If you didn't think Demko deserved to be an All-Star, you got to see why on the Hockey Night in Canada national broadcast – on at a time that was suitable for Leafs fans watching from Ontario, no less. If the Canucks turn out to be any good over the next few seasons, Demko has the upside to be a top-5 goalie in fantasy leagues. Pure skill-wise, I believe he's already there.

With Quinn Hughes out of the lineup due to COVID protocol, Oliver Ekman-Larsson has stepped up the offense. With an assist on Saturday, OEL has five points in the three games without Hughes. Ekman-Larsson has also benefitted from first-unit power-play time in Hughes' absence. Hughes is expected to make his return when the Canucks cross the border for their next game in San Jose on Thursday, which will zap some of OEL's value.  

Brock Boeser hasn't had his strongest season, but he has turned it up a notch recently. With a power-play goal and an assist on Saturday, Boeser has eight points (including four goals) over his last seven games.

Blake Wheeler doubled his season goal total in one game. That's right – he scored a pair of goals on Saturday to double his season goal total from two to four. He also added three assists for a five-point game (three of which were on the power play) to go with eight shots. Between injuries and a lack of goals, Wheeler hasn't had a memorable season.

Wheeler has been a good-but-not-great goal scorer throughout his career with no 30-goal seasons but eight 20-goal seasons. His shot total (2.5 SOG/GP) is similar to his total from the last few seasons, so more pucks should start going in for Wheeler. Even if he is facing an age-related decline, Wheeler's 5.1 SH% is still artificially low. He's played over 20 minutes for each of his last three games, so he is still an important part of the Jets attack.

Wheeler's linemate Mark Scheifele might finally be hitting his stride after his own slow start and middling results for much of the season. With a goal and two assists of his own, Scheifele has goals in three consecutive games and six points over that span.

Matt Duchene scored another goal on Saturday, which gives him six goals in his last six games. He's also on a six-game point streak with eight points over that span. I wrote about Duchene's comeback campaign three weeks ago, and not much has changed since then. To summarize, Duchene is clearly a better player than he demonstrated last season (just 13 points in 34 games), but I'd bet the under on him finishing with a point per game (currently 43 PTS in 44 GP). He's taking nearly a shot more per game (2.9 SOG/GP this season compared to 2.1 SOG/GP last season), but his shooting percentage has also doubled (17.8 SH%) from last season (8.2 SH%).  

I'll discuss in more detail two more players having strong bounceback campaigns later on.

The Canadiens completed a minor deal on Saturday, acquiring Andrew Hammond from the Wild for Brandon Baddock. Hammond, aka the Hamburgler, should help with goaltending depth as the Habs try to manage their affairs without both Carey Price and Jake Allen. This trade allows the Habs to reassign Cayden Primeau to the AHL, which is a much better place for him than the current disaster scene in Montreal.

In yesterday's Ramblings, I mentioned how thin the Flyers' center situation could get if Claude Giroux is traded. Admittedly I didn't spend a long time on the topic, nor have I watched the Flyers a lot this season. To follow up on it, a reader gave me what might be a good tip on Scott Laughton, who scored a goal and an assist to go with six shots and 20 minutes of icetime on Saturday. Laughton is on five-game point streak in which he has six points, and he has been playing on a scoring line with Travis Konecny and James van Riemsdyk. Just 5 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues and 18 percent rostered in Fantrax leagues, Laughton could be worth taking a flier (flyer?) on.

Andrei Svechnikov scored both Hurricanes goals in their 3-2 loss to Minnesota. That means Svechnikov has six goals over his last six games, along with 18 points over his last 12 games. This recent run has vaulted Svechnikov over the point-per-game mark (44 PTS in 43 GP) this season. Barring injury or major slump, Svechnikov should also be able to exceed his 24-goal career high from two seasons ago. Even though he's already in his fourth NHL season, don't forget that Svechnikov is still only 21 years of age.

Semyon Varlamov was placed in COVID protocol right before the Islanders' late game in Calgary. That meant Ilya Sorokin had to make starts on back-to-back nights. Not ideal for Sorokin, since he was on the wrong end of a 5-2 loss. Keep Varlamov on your bench next week.

Jacob Markstrom recorded his fourth consecutive win. Since January 18, Markstrom has an 8-2-0 record with a 1.88 GAA and .932 SV%. The Flames are on a heater (six wins in a row), and Markstrom is a major reason. Flames fans should finally be happy with the Markstrom signing, but Canucks fans probably don't regret letting him get away, given the performance of his replacement.

With a goal on Saturday, Andrew Mangiapane has five goals in his last five games. Only seven players have scored more goals than Mangiapane. Yet no player with at least 13 goals has recorded as few assists. 24-7 would make an ideal Cy Young win-loss total. The Bread Man's (easier to type than his last name) shooting percentage is quite high at 21.8%, but his shooting percentage is usually in the double digits. The advanced stat that is too high? Secondary assists. We might actually see fewer assists going forward, not fewer goals.

With an assist on Saturday, Oliver Kylington is on a five-game point streak. Over his last nine games he is also a plus-14. Kylington has been streaky all season, scoring 12 points in one 12-game span early in the season, but also being held without a point for eight consecutive games before the current five-game point streak. He's come out of nowhere to produce at a 45-point pace this season.

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A couple of players jumped out at me during the early Saturday games, not just because of their strong play recently but also because they struggled to some degree last season.

Let's face it: Last season was chaotic (okay, this season has been a little bit too). Yet looking back, we probably shouldn't have put as much stock into last season as we should a typical season because of the late start date, the shortened schedule, the limited opponents, and the social isolation. With the schedule length being more normal this season, now is a good time to identify comeback players and whether everything will be okay going forward.

Dylan Larkin

In the Red Wings' 4-2 win over Philadelphia, Larkin chipped in three assists. He's now on a five-game point streak where he has piled up 11 points (4 G, 7 A). For the first time in his career, Larkin is over a point per game (49 PTS in 44 GP). That's a far cry from last season, when Larkin would have been on a 43-point pace over a full 82 games.

Part of this is the Red Wings as a team trending upwards offensively. Although the team's 2.82 GF/GP this season is hardly one of the league's top offenses, it is half a goal per game better than their almost league-worst 2.23 GF/GP from last season. During that season, there was no Lucas Raymond, and Tyler Bertuzzi's season ended very early. Larkin's production fell off once Bertuzzi was sidelined last season, not to mention that Larkin has been just fine without Bertuzzi recently. 

Having said all of this, Larkin is due for some regression. In particular, his 18.3 SH% and 3.5 PTS/60 are significantly higher than expected, while his 10.6 5-on-5 SH% and 1025 PDO also suggest luck has been much more in his favor this season. Larkin is obviously much better than a 43-point player, but it's a stretch to assume he'll be a point-per-game player for the rest of the season. If you are expecting that, or if someone else is in your league, it might be a good time to trade him.

Patrik Laine

Laine is a top-searched player on Frozen Tools because of his recent play, and he's probably also a top-searched player on Google and Twitter because of his pregame outfits. In case you were wondering what he was wearing on Saturday, it was a Cincinnati Bengals t-shirt – just trying to fit in with the group as they cheer for the nearby football team in the Super Bowl.

Anyway, enough fashion talk. Laine is on a six-game point streak in which he has put up 12 points, including seven goals. On Saturday he contributed to all of the Blue Jackets' offense in some way, scoring the game-winning goal on the power play with eight seconds left in regulation along with an assist on Oliver Bjorkstrand's early first-period goal. He's also now on exactly a point-per-game pace (27 PTS in 27 GP), although it's also understood that he has missed 19 games due to an oblique strain.

Laine simply didn't have enough time to generate traction with his new team, having been traded early in the season and having to learn John Tortorella's ultra-defensive style. Since Tortorella isn't there anymore, it's probably easier for Laine to do his thing under new coach Brad Larsen. That might be a simple explanation, but could you see the personalities of Laine and Tortorella really coexisting?

Laine is a former 40-goal scorer with Winnipeg, so he is fully capable of the goal-scoring pace that he is on (13 G in 27 GP). There's a bit of good luck with his 17.8 SH% and his 3.3 PTS/60, but we're not talking about an extreme variation from the norm. Where you might want to budget lower is in assists. Laine has 14 assists, which is already higher than his 12 in 46 games from last season. His secondary assist rate of 64.3% is extremely high, so expect Laine to put up a more goal-heavy statline going forward.

Overall, I'd be surprised if Laine is a 40-goal scorer with the Columbus Blue Jackets, unless they find him an elite playmaker. He could also find his way onto a team with one, as he's a pending RFA with a $7.5 million qualifying offer for one season – the Blue Jackets have a big decision on their hands. Having said that, we should no longer be asking the question as to whether to drop him. He's earning his place on fantasy rosters again by doing what he does best, which is scoring goals.   

For more fantasy hockey discussion, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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Starting Goalies

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JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

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  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency COL Players
22.0 VALERI NICHUSHKIN NATHAN MACKINNON ARTTURI LEHKONEN
16.9 LOGAN O'CONNOR JOEL KIVIRANTA PARKER KELLY
16.6 MIKKO RANTANEN CASEY MITTELSTADT ROSS COLTON

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