The Journey: Quick Hits (February 2022)

Ben Gehrels

2022-02-12

Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we'll jump around doing some quick hits—brief observations about prospects from a range of leagues who are worthy of note.

First off, four NCAA defencemen have incredibly high PNHLe scores right now: Jake Sanderson (OTT, 87 PNHLe), Sean Behrens (COL, 86), Scott Morrow (CAR, 79), and Owen Power (BUF, 79). Sanderson and Power are almost certainly rostered in keeper formats but Behrens and Morrow were both picked in the second round last year and are flying more under the radar. They’d both make a decent stash if you have room.

Speaking of Behrens, several of his University of Denver teammates are also worthy of note this year: Bobby Brink (PHI) is leading their attack with 41 points in 26 games, Carter Savoie (EDM) is continuing to put his one-timer to good use with 16 goals in 24 games, Mike Benning (FLA) is shining on the back end with 21 points in 26 games, and intriguing Carolina 7th rounder Massimo Rizzo is also above a point-per-game with 27 in 24. Move over Michigan.

When are the Canadiens going to sign Xavier Simoneau? Montreal's 2021 6th rounder sits at nearly two points per game in his fifth QMJHL season and leads the league in assists with his silky, versatile passing. Simoneau’s a smaller Sonny Milano in terms of puck skills, and his tenacity and two-way play make him very difficult to play against. He's a mere 5-7 and players that size rarely make and stick in the NHL. But hey, look over there in Columbus where Trey Fix-Wolansky (also 5-7) just scored his first NHL goal. You never know!

Wyatt Johnston (DAL), Joshua Roy (MON), and Luke Evangelista (NAS) are all pushing for the scoring lead in their respective leagues and yet continue to be overlooked in many keeper and dynasty formats. I'd include Logan Stankoven in the WHL, but he's a higher-profile former first rounder. Johnston, profiled for a recent Journey article, is lighting up the OHL with 1.87 points per game (ppg) so far in what should be his third year but is actually his second. He's one of many intriguing prospects who missed all or most of last year and are now showing what they are capable of. Roy, a 5th round pick from last year, has slowed somewhat in the QMJHL but still sits at an impressive 1.79 ppg.

Evangalista, the eldest (drafted in 2020) and most prolific of this trio, is ripping up the OHL with the London Knights to the tune of a whopping 2.13 ppg. Aside from a handful of notable exceptions—Patrick Kane and his linemates in 2006 (2.2 – 2.6 ppg), Connor McDavid in 2014 (2.5), Dylan Strome in 2016 (2.1), and Marco Rossi a couple years ago (2.1)—Evangalista is one of the only OHL players in nearly 15 years to push this far past the two points-per-game barrier. He's factored into an incredible 53% of the Knights goals this year, so he's not just riding someone's coattails. In fact, if you add up the point totals of the 2nd and 3rd highest scorers on the Knights, Evangalista is only 13 points behind them—and closing. Hopefully he can play a major role in Nashville's slowly emerging youth movement over the next few years.

Evangalista making it look easy out there:

Keep an eye on Lukas Reichel (CHI). He's easily the Blackhawks' top prospect and is a point-per-game through 29 games for their AHL affiliate so far this year. Success like that in the AHL for a 19-year-old player is an excellent sign; he'll likely see a few NHL games at the end of this year and be called up full-time by as soon as next year. Hockey Prospecting gives him a 29% chance of becoming an NHL star—that's up from 17% in his draft year—and his NHLe has risen steadily for the last four years: 11, 24, 30, 48. Reichel is checking off a number of boxes we like to see from a prospect: he has opportunity in that there's not a traffic jam of prospects ahead or behind him, he's putting up strong numbers in a pro league as a teenager, and he's showing improvement year after year. Get your Reichel stocks now before he makes the jump and starts seeing time alongside Kane & Co.

I was leery of Zachary L'Heureux (NAS) at last year's draft; he had a number of suspensions and it seemed like he lacked both discipline and the higher-end upside of many of his first-round peers. This year, however, he's providing a clearer glimpse into his ultimate potential: he's scoring at a 1.65 ppg rate, which represents 45% of his team's points, and averaging fewer than two penalty minutes per game. No major suspensions or further evidence of out-of-control behaviour. If he can keep focusing his energy and honing his scoring touch, Nashville may just have a game-changing middle sixer here. Tanner Jeannot 2.0.

What to make of Lukas Cormier? The guy has 95 points in his last 68 games as a defenceman in the QMJHL. That’s 1.4 ppg, the kind of numbers we’d expect from a blue-chip forward prospect. That puts him second in the league for scoring among defencemen. Then he made Team Canada's top four for the World Juniors. His closest comparables by PNHLe include Aaron Ekblad, Shea Theodore, and Charlie McAvoy. And yet he continues to have minimal value in keeper and dynasty formats. There doesn’t seem to be any buzz around him at all. Or at least not enough buzz for what his play has warranted.

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Here’s a coast-to-coast goal he scored this week:

Sean Farrell (MON) has had a very impressive junior career, including scoring 101 points in only 53 games last year for the Chicago Steel in the USHL. This year, he's over a point-per-game in the NCAA and is starting to raise eyebrows with his play for the US at the Olympics. He followed up a five-point game against China with a key assist in the American's 4-2 win over Canada. His play on the world's biggest stage has everyone talking. In keeper leagues, you may have a brief window to sign him before someone else does. But don't drag your feet. The hype is real.

Backstopping that US Olympic team is intriguing goalie prospect Strauss Mann. Like Farrell, Mann has likely been overlooked because of his height (he's 6-0). But there's an entrenched, recycled bias around goalie heights—debunked here by Dobber Prospect's Hadi Kalakeche—that is frankly quite stale and superficial. Regardless a goalie’s skillset, if they’re basically 6-1 or shorter, their write-ups will negatively reference their height as a barrier they’ll have to overcome. On the flip side, when a goalie is 6-2 or taller, the narrative tends to pivot to how their size is an asset. Hockey is a game of inches, fine, but surely a goalie’s mobility and positional awareness outweigh an inch or two of height. Anyway, the six-foot Mann is 23 years old and was never drafted even though he has a sparkling resume stretching all the way back to his high school career with Brunswick School. Most recently, Mann spent a couple dominant years with the U of Michigan and is currently excelling for Skelleftea in the SHL.

If you’re looking for a goalie stash with a tight timeline and solid upside, look no further than Mann. Assuming the Olympics continue to be a positive showcase for him (Canada did score a goal on a sloppy play by him), expect Mann to sign with an NHL team over the offseason and enter the conversation as one of the game’s top goalie prospects.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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