This week we are going to start a mini-series looking back at some early season returns and where those players are now. It's the "Where Are They Now" mini-series. Kind of like checking up on all of your high school classmates (you know to make sure they aren't doing better than you), just different. Originally the idea was to look at initial data across all positions, but there were just too many interesting things to touch on, so I ended up splitting the content over a few articles. This week:

Frozen Tool Forensics: Where Are They Now? Forward Edition.

Some basics to get the ball rolling. We are starting with a Big Board report from six weeks into the season. That was about three weeks into November, and most players had played between 15 and 20 games. For the purposes of this article, we are mostly going to be looking at point pace, and then using other tools from the Player Profiles, like game log and player calculator to look at specific stretches of time.

As a reminder, here is the top ten in scoring (by point pace) at the time (this is the Big Board report exported with some columns removed and rearranged)

We won't touch on everyone on this list, and will definitely hit some folks not mentioned above, but it serves as a reference point.

First up: Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid

McDavid and Draistitl were on an absolute tear to start the season. We aren't going to spend too long on these two as, well, they are both superstars and there really isn't any actionable advice here. What is interesting though is that Edmonton tanked pretty hard between that time period and now and there were definitely times where the two superstars were a bit… less. There were actually nine games from the 6-week mark to the end of January where McDavid did not put up a point and a month (December 11th, to January 20th) where he put up only eight points in ten games. Similarly, Draisaitl put up 11 points in 14 games from December 5th to January 20th. They have both rebounded a bit since, Draisaitl putting up an 87-point pace and McDavid a 98-point pace giving them a 115 and 119 pace overall, but suffice it to say these sub 100 point paces recently have been making these stars look decidedly human.

Alex Ovechkin had put up 15 goals in 19 games at the 6-week mark. That is a 65-goal pace. He has come down to earth somewhat, but as of the time of this writing he had 19 goals in 33 games since which is still good for a 47-point pace. Overall, he is still on pace for 102 points which would be his highest in 12 seasons. His time on ice, power-play time, and shot rates are up. His shooting percentage is reasonable, though his even strength team shooting percentage is high. Again, there isn't much to do here, just enjoy the ride.

Nazem Kadri has gotten a lot of air time this season, so we won't spend too much time here either, but we do have to check in. At the 6-week mark he was putting up a 126 point pace. He had gotten a big bump in deployment as Colorado was dealing with injuries and there was some question as to how effective he was going to be once everyone was back. Well as of this writing  he has put up 46 points in the 34 games (111 point pace) since. He has maintained his career high power-play roll, and overall ice time. If you missed out and hoped this would just be a flash in the pan, well it definitely wasn't. As of 2/24 he only had two points in his last five games so that is something to watch out for, though he did have eleven in the seven prior.

Troy Terry and really the Ducks in general took the NHL by storm at the start of the season. His 100-point pace had many managers kicking themselves for not adding him when they had the chance. It has definitely been a different story since though. Just after the 6-week mark, from 11/22 until 12/11, Terry played in eleven games, but managed just four points. Points have come in fits and starts since, with several three-point games and lots of zeros. It has averaged out to about a 60-point pace since. As his prior career high was a 34-point pace, 60 should still be viewed as a huge success, but it has been taken as a bit of a disappointment to some after that monster start. A word of caution though, this more recent 60-point pace is coming with a very high personal shooting percentage and secondary assist rate so there might still be some room to fall.

Timo Meier has made headlines a couple of times this season. First, he got off to a great start with 19 points in his first 15 games (a 95-point pace) and then on January 17 he went and put up five goals. What makes all of this surprising isn't that Meier is having a sustainably good season, we have been waiting for that for years, it is more the timing of it. His three prior seasons of a 69, then 57, and then 47-point paces did not really indicate imminent breakout. It has been for real though. He has followed up those first 15 games with 38 points in 35 games (89-point pace) and maintained career high total time on ice, power-play time, and shot rates.

Viktor Olofsson and Buffalo in general were another like Anaheim who took folks by surprise at the start of the season. Olofsson had 11 points through his first ten games before losing some time to injury. He came back relatively strong as well with six points in his next eight for 17 points through his first 18 games. Since December 7th though he has nine points in 26 games, and only seven since December 29th when Alex Tuch joined the team. It isn't like there haven't been points to be had on Buffalo though Olofsson just isn't involved. Tuch has 21 points in 19 games, Tage Thompson has 20 in 17, and Jeff Skinner has 19 in 19. The moral of this story is that if somehow Olofsson is still owned, cut bait. He was falling off anyway, but that top line is the only place producing in Buffalo and Olofsson has been frozen out since Tuch arrived.

Lucas Raymond has been a revelation in Detroit. He has been a big part of the breakout line of Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi. To start the season, he had 19 points in 20 games for a 78-point pace. He put up 21 points over his next 33 games which is a much slower 52-point pace. January was a particularly slow month with only seven points over 14 games. He is still getting excellent deployment, up over 20 minutes a night of total time on ice, and three plus minutes of power-play time. For the season he is on a 63-point pace, with nothing glaring in his underlying numbers for the most part (he does have a high secondary assist rate). It is hard to say that with any real certainty though as he has no career number to compare to. A 60-point pace for the remainder of the season would certainly be a success, though the 50- to 55-point recent pace might be more realistic.

That is all for this week

Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

Black Girl Hockey Club

Hockey is For Everyone

Athletes for Hope

Premier Hockey Federation