Ramblings – Looking at Slumping Players, the ‘Other’ Aho, Rust and More (Feb 28)
Dobber
2022-02-28
With Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins sidelined, the Oilers iced a less-than-ideal lineup. And you can tell that Coach Jay Woodcroft felt that way because man did he ever shorten the bench. Four players saw under 7:45 of ice time, three other players saw under 12:45. That means five players topped 21:56, with Leon Draisaitl leading the way with 28:08. Not sustainable. If the depth guys can't be used when behind by a goal – then get new depth guys. Much has been made about Edmonton's need to acquire a goaltender. And I understand that's about the toughest acquisition a team can make. But checking forwards and bottom defensemen? Those are the easiest to acquire.
PP QB watch: Tyson Barrie saw 4:43 PPTOI and Evan Bouchard saw 2:17 with the second unit. Barrie has three PPPts in the nine games with the new coach, and that's with about 20:40 in total PPTOI. Bouchard has had about 16:30 and one PPPt, though much of that was with the second unit.
If Philip Broberg is going to get 6:23 every game, the way he did Sunday, then I think the Oilers need to send him down. Either trust him or don't. I don't like seeing prospects in a situation where they only get minimal ice time.
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Speaking of which – Seth Jarvis just 9:12 on Sunday. The game prior – 10:57. The one before that – healthy scratch. He's an NHL-caliber player right now and I think the Hurricanes are a better team with him getting 14 minutes per game (his season average prior to five games ago). His season-to-date xG% at 5v5 is 59.1 – and that leads the team.
I do understand why Martin Necas saw just 10:48 though. First of all, he's not very strong defensively. His possession numbers point to some struggles there, as well as the expected-goals ratio (46%). He didn't play the final nine minutes of the game and this will be the case when they are up by one goal and against a team boasting McDavid. That kind of low ice time is not a trend, but a one-off.
I was looking through Frederik Andersen's game logs and noticed that he only had one RBS (Really Bad Start) all season. And that one 'barely' qualified, at three goals allowed on 16 shots. But he has 22 Quality Starts including Sunday. Only one other goalie has more Quality Starts this season with zero or one RBS – Igor Shesterkin.
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Alex Tuch had a case of the new-team adrenalin when he went all nutty in his Buffalo debut, posting 19 points in 16 games. But his heartrate has settled back to normal now, and his three points in six games are slowly correcting his stats to a more realistic level. He's also a minus-6 in that span. If he can stay healthy – and so far he hasn't shown us that he can – I think he'll have a surprisingly big year next season and flirt with 70 points.
Casey Mittelstadt's return from injury hasn't been as nice as Tuch's. One point in five games and minus-5. Thanks to his injury early this season, the second-line center job is up in the air next season even though he had first dibs on the first-line center gig back in training camp. Tage Thompson has obviously seized control of the top slot, leaving Mittelstadt to go head-to-head against Dylan Cozens. In Mittelstadt's favor is the fact that Cozens struggles at the faceoff dot (42.9%).
Speaking of Thompson, he has 16 SOG in his last two games (scored twice). He's averaging 3.3 shots per game and in fact his shot rate has increased in each of his four NHL seasons.
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Jason Robertson has one point in his last five games. The last time he had a cold streak like that was nine games into his NHL career when he went six games with just one point. Otherwise, he's never done that in his NHL tenure.
Alexander Radulov, after posting 12 points in 11 games last season prior to injury, is struggling to find his footing this year and at age 35 it's obviously doubtful he ever finds it. Just two goals on the season and his ice time has been steadily declining. Averages of 17:53 per game in the first 15 games, 15:53 in the next 14, 12:20 in the next 16 and then 11:58 on Sunday. His PP time is dropping accordingly.
Tyler Seguin has quietly posted 17 points in his last 17 games.
Jake Oettinger is tied for fourth in the league in Quality Starts over the past month, with six (in 10 games).
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Torey Krug is now pointless in six games. He's still the QB on the St. Louis power play so I'm not concerned about him bouncing back. His spot is secure. But he's been wildly inconsistent this season, having also suffered through an eight-game pointless drought back in early December. Think about that: eight games and six games. Take those slumps away and he has 28 points in 31 games on the season. But that's the type of player you get with Krug. Even with Justin Faulk getting nine points in nine games as the second-unit quarterback – Coach Craig Berube has been steadfast in Krug as the guy.
Speaking of Faulk, has anyone noticed his Hits have been rising? He's averaging 2.25 per game over the last two seasons when prior to that he was usually good for an average of around 1.75.
Brayden Schenn has 19 points (five PPPts) in his last 14 games after registering a pair of assists on Sunday. He's been playing with Jordan Kyrou and Ivan Barbashev.
Some signs of life for David Perron, who scored twice on Sunday and had eight SOG. Perron has five points in his last four games. He had been having a tough season and fantasy owners have been worried because he's 33 years old. His 5on5 S% of 6.9 indicates some tough puck luck and that his production will continue to be better in the second half versus the first.
After getting shelled for three consecutive games, Jordan Binnington has strung together consecutive Quality Starts. It was wise of Berube to play him against Philadelphia and Chicago, a couple of weaker teams, while letting Ville Husso handle Toronto. Husso has been elbowing his way into the starting job and I suspect that by the second or third game of the playoffs he will usurp Binnington. Unfortunately for Husso owners, that will be too late.
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Phil Kessel has just six points in his last 15 games and is minus-8 in that span. Kudos to you if you traded him when he had 27 points in 38 games. Or maybe after his four-assist game back on December 28 – that would have been the sweet spot for selling high. Coulda shoulda woulda, amirite?
In his second game with his new club, Nick Ritchie picked up a goal and an assist, also adding three SOG. He has seven Hits in two games with Arizona. He seems to have chemistry with Barrett Hayton, though it's still early.
Hayton has been in the NHL seemingly forever, but the fact is that he has just 65 games under his belt. The 21-year-old hasn't dazzled us with his numbers yet – but he certainly dazzled us with this play on Sunday. And it is reason enough for you, or anyone, to not write him off as a top prospect. Check it out:
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With Andrew Copp sidelined for the last six games, the Jets have turned to Evgeny Svechnikov to play on the Kyle Connor – Pierre-Luc Dubois line these past couple of games and he has popped three points including two on Sunday. Copp has missed games with a UBI, but from what I can gather it doesn't seem to be something that keeps him out for much longer. But until he returns, Svechnikov is a solid replacement option. Copp is a UFA this summer and is the subject of heavy trade rumors.
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Bryan Rust is tied for ninth in the entire league (minimum 20 games played) in points-per-game average. With two more points on Sunday his average is 1.27. At this point when I do these Ramblings every week, I don't know what to say about this guy. Every week I look at him and it boggles my mind. I expect a slowdown and what happens is a ramp-up. I've always believed that generational players push weaker producers to be average, average producers to be stars, and stars to be elite producers. And after two or three years alongside the generational player these guys can continue producing huge numbers even after removing the generational player from their line. Rust has 140 points in his last 144 games. Prior to the NHL he was a mediocre producer in the AHL and a mediocre producer in college. Nothing to indicate that he had this kind of production in him.
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Jack Roslovic is a player to put back on your radar after posting his second two-point effort in three games. He was finally given some great linemates – Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jakub Voracek.
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Sebastian Aho has a point in each of his last five games. Those words don't surprise you. But I meant the other Aho. This one. The Islanders defenseman got back into the lineup on February 15 and has points in six of seven games since then, all at even strength. He's been playing with Ryan Pulock.
By the way, the Carolina Aho has six points in five games – so he's still the more productive Aho!
Noah Dobson is really starting to come into his own. On an offensively impotent team like the Islanders, the 22-year-old defenseman has managed eight points in his last eight games. A very impressive feat on this team and I can't imagine how well he'd do on a team like Colorado.
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Follow me on Twitter for details and the official 'launch' announcement of the new Goalie Post! This week's update is a good one – Michael Amato and myself will begin putting in starters on the new site in the background, kind of a practice run. We have a tentative launch date of Thursday. But that would depend on how smoothly our practice entries go. But things look good!
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See you next Monday.