Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. With the Canucks now knocking on the playoff door in the Western Conference, J.T. Miller isn’t going anywhere at the trade deadline. Canucks GM Patrik Allvin even hinted at that when he suggested in a recent interview that they would discuss a Miller contract in the summer. At this point a team would have to make a Godfather offer to pull Miller out of Vancouver before the deadline. (mar12)

2. It’s a good time to go through some trade targets for the upcoming trade deadline. Rather than just list guys that may be on the move, though, it’s worth looking at what gets left behind if those players get moved. It is nice to daydream about what a line of Forsberg-MacKinnon-Rantanen would look like for Colorado, but what does that do to Nashville’s top-6? Those are the kinds of things we’re going to be looking at today. For now, we’re going to stick with some of the higher-end guys that are at least possibilities to move. 

Claude Giroux: We will find out if – when? – Giroux gets traded but I fear for the sanity of Flyers fans. With Sean Couturier injured and Kevin Hayes having a very off year, there just isn’t much left for centers if Giroux is on the move. The Flyers could be looking at a top-6 center duo of Derick Brassard and Scott Laughton, especially seeing as those two have been in the top-6 and taking face-offs in recent games. Could there be much fantasy value for either of them?

It should be noted that Laughton isn’t having a bad year, really. His 82-game paces for this year exceed 15 goals and 40 points, not bad for a guy on a poor team getting little power-play exposure. What would make him valuable is his physical play as he’s averaging over two hits per game on the season. He is up to roughly 17:30 a night of late and Giroux moving on could lead to even more. Not that he’ll suddenly be a 65-point, second-line centre, but even a 50-point centre with two hits per game is very valuable in banger leagues.

For my money, it would be Laughton and then Brassard that we should look towards. Maybe they give the veteran top-line billing, but it seems more likely that Brassard himself is on the move as a very cheap depth centre. For those in banger leagues that may have left Laughton on the waiver wire, heading out to grab him sometime next week seems the move here.

3. Filip Forsberg: If this were two months ago, the prospect of someone jumping on a line with Mikael Granlund and Matt Duchene would have been incredibly interesting. But entering Thursday action, the Nashville top line has seen some of their production fall off: 29 points in 30 games to start the season for Granlund and 13 points in 24 contests since while the line has dropped about 0.4 goals per 60 minutes at all strengths (at a time of rising goal scoring league-wide). Duchene and Forsberg are still producing well, but only one of those guys will likely be in this lineup in two weeks’ time, and that matters.

Therein lies a big part of the problem: the guy (likely) getting traded is the best player on his line. As the line has scored less and controlled less of the play, we have to assume that the guy replacing Forsberg won’t kick-start them into next gear. That also doesn’t mean there won’t be fantasy value, seeing as he skates 18 minutes a night, including top PP time.

Immediately, the guy to think about is Eeli Tolvanen. He has been moved all around the lineup basically all season, bouncing mostly between the second and fourth lines. They could move up Tanner Jeannot, but they really seem to like their third line, and they’re still in a playoff spot. They don’t really seem to be in a position to experiment heavily, and that includes breaking up one of their favourite combinations. [For more trade deadline player analysis, follow the link.] (mar10)

4. Erik Karlsson returned to the Sharks’ lineup on Thursday after a 15-game absence resulting from forearm surgery. He wasn’t exactly eased into game action, logging nearly 26 minutes while recording a pair of assists. He seems to be bouncing back after a rough 2020-21 season, so get him back into your lineup. As well, his return could help the San Jose goalie situation, especially with minute-muncher Mario Ferraro also sidelined. Not that I want to be heavily invested in the San Jose goalie situation to begin with. (mar12)

5. Talk about being back, Jakub Vrana has finally returned to the Red Wings lineup, scoring three goals over his first three games of the season. Vrana has had a ferocious start to his career in Detroit, scoring 11 goals in 14 games dating back to last season. Obviously, Vrana owners would prefer he play on the top line with Dylan Larkin, but he may be productive no matter where he is in the lineup. (mar12)

6. Petr Mrazek might be okay if you’re chasing wins, but I don’t have a lot of faith in him preserving your goals-against average and save percentage. Whether to add him boils down to your team needs and other available options, but my default answer if you ask is probably going to be no. The whole Leafs team seems to have a major confidence issue defensively, which trickles down to the goalie even if they are normally psychologically able to shake off a bad goal. (mar12)

7. The Stars have signed Joe Pavelski to a one-year extension worth $5.5 million. Pavelski is proving that players in their late-30s can still produce at star levels, scoring at a point-per-game pace on Dallas’s top line with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Staying with the Stars is also better for his fantasy value than him possibly signing elsewhere as a free agent, as another team may not use him in a way that can generate as many points. (mar12)

8. Robin Lehner was reportedly seen using crutches, so barring a trade Laurent Brossoit will likely man the net for Vegas over the foreseeable future. Brossoit has just one quality start over his last four games, so he’s not an automatic wins replacement for a top-tier team. In fact, is Vegas still a top-tier team with all of their key injuries (Lehner, Mark Stone, Alec Martinez)? Looks to me like they’re a team simply trying to stay above the playoff bar right now. (mar12)

9. Trevor Moore has 29 points over his last 28 games – since the calendar flipped to 2022. In fact, that total leads the Kings over that span and entering Saturday, it was one point higher than Leon Draisaitl‘s over the same number of games. All it took for Moore was to be moved onto a different line, where his icetime has increased about four minutes per game and his power-play time over a minute per game. Yet, Moore is still rostered in only 9 percent of Yahoo leagues and 25 percent of Fantrax leagues. (mar12)

10. It would be nice to say that Rasmus Ristolainen's contract extension came out of left field, but I’ve been an NHL fan for too long. It really wasn’t that long ago that the Vancouver Canucks gave Tyler Myers his huge contract. The team has been outscored by 11 with him on the ice at 5-on-5 over the last three years, and that’s with a 0,921 save percentage behind him. It hasn’t been great. It isn’t that he’s awful, it’s just these are the kinds of contracts that just are… there. Ristolainen is not worth $5M a season, he never has been, and unless he overhauls his game, he never will be. But he is tall and hits a lot, so the Flyers just love him.

Anyway, cap league players will get some savings here as his AAV does come down. And he does post a lot of peripherals, as he’s sitting with 280 hits+blocks in 51 games on the year. I guess the lower AAV than his current contract means it’ll also be easier to swallow the fact he’s seen his points per game decline for five years straight. With little production, it’s all peripherals for that $5M AAV in cap leagues. It’ll be up to owners to decide if he’s worth it. (mar11)

11. Evan Rodrigues might be the key to the Penguins being a true Cup contender. At the risk of putting too much weight on his shoulders, he had 30 points in 33 games to start the year and six points in 26 games since. While percentages are not in his favour, he’s also ending up with far fewer scoring chances per 60 minutes, so the percentages dropping make sense. 

If Rodrigues can find his form from earlier in the season and form a truly great second scoring line alongside Evgeni Malkin, as was the case on Friday, that is game-changing for the Penguins. They could even use him on the third line to lengthen the lineup, as Phil Kessel did 5-6 years ago. Unless (until) they add pieces at the deadline, his performance is the difference between a top-heavy lineup and perhaps having three true scoring lines. So, yes, him turning his play around will be big for Pittsburgh, and he’ll get the chance alongside Malkin.

I wonder about this being a good place for fantasy. He won’t get top PP minutes unless there’s an injury, but a 50-point pace is still possible without them. Rodrigues could be a good speculative add for anyone needing depth help down the stretch, just be prepared to drop him again if he doesn’t pan out quickly. (mar11)

12. I am not a doctor, I only play one on Twitter, but Miro Heiskanen's diagnosis of mononucleosis doesn’t appear to be a short-term issue. As in, don’t expect him back next week or something. That could be a big problem for Dallas as Heiskanen was having an excellent two-way season, and was easily their most valuable blue liner. They are teetering on a playoff spot at the moment and a significant injury like this could really hurt, especially with how tight the race is.

For fantasy owners, not much can be done here. The guy who will take all the PP1 minutes is John Klingberg and he’s surely rostered in competitive leagues (though it never hurts to check). What I will say is that with Heiskanen out for the last week, both Jani Hakanpaa and Esa Lindell have seen ice-time increases (the former much more than the latter). Those guys thrive through peripherals, and more ice time is always welcome. Check for them on the wire in your multi-cat leagues, as Lindell is probably going to sneak some secondary PP time as well. (mar11)

13. Despite a bad year for the ‘Hawks, Brandon Hagel has really shown that he can be a part of the team’s future. He is up to 20 goals on the year and it’s partly due to his 20%+ conversion rate, yes. But 20 goals in 54 games is nothing to sneeze at and even 15% shooting would see him get to 20 goals comfortably this year. He has some more work to do on his offensive game, but he’s turning into a nice player for them. (mar11)

14. If you’re in a keeper league and not gunning for a championship this year, then now might be the time to look into buying Connor Hellebuyck. It’s one of the worst kept secrets in terms of statistical patterns/anomalies, but Hellebuyck seems to alternate good years and bad. It has been going on all the way back to when he entered the league in 2015, so we had better start using that knowledge to our advantage. (mar9)

15. One player who has broken out this year but that you may think is going to be overvalued going into drafts next season is Jesper Bratt. However, I think it would be pretty tough to overrate him at this point. We all know Jack Hughes has 100-point upside, and could be hitting 90+ next season as long as he’s healthy, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see Bratt right there with him at 90 points assuming the linemates stick together and can make it through a full season. Bratt’s impacts on the game are just ridiculous right now. (mar9)

16. Auston Matthews is up to 37 goals in his last 38 games, and has taken a big lead in the Rocket Richard race. That trophy is his to lose for the foreseeable future, but there is some worthy competition. Leon Draisaitl (39) and Chris Kreider (38), are currently tied for second behind Matthews in the goal race, but it’s Kyle Connor (36) down in fifth who intrigues me the most. Connor has excellent speed, hands, and shot, and I think if you’re putting money on anyone but Matthews to lead the league in goals over the next few seasons, it has to be Connor. (mar9)

17. Conor Sheary is up to a 50-point pace for the first time since his sophomore season on Sidney Crosby‘s wing, and coincidentally he just passed his breakout threshold earlier in the year. It may be strange for us to think of a 29-year-old middle-six winger hitting another gear at this point, but he could easily be a 50-point winger moving forward. (mar9)

18. The Islanders have gone through some brutal stretches this year, starting with that circus road trip to open the season. They didn’t play a home game until November 20th, and then went through an extensive COVID outbreak. It’s likely too little, too late, but that doesn’t mean it’s a lost season. Noah Dobson has been solid at both ends for the Islanders, and also given them a power-play quarterback they can look to for the future. His peripherals have seen a bit uptick, along with his ice time, and that’s really making him a valuable fantasy asset. We’ll see what the team looks like next year, but he seems to be at the top of the depth chart in many regards now. (mar8)

19. I saw a tweet not long ago that was something along the lines of Jason Robertson being better than Kirill Kaprizov through their first two seasons. I wasn’t so sure, and then Robertson posted back-to-back hat tricks. Alright then. Of course, scoring six goals in two games doesn’t mean anything other than a player scored six goals in two games. But it does give us a reason to look a bit deeper into what he’s done in his two seasons.

I think the first thing I want to look at is his impact on Roope Hintz. The young centre has looked excellent over most of the last two years, looking every bit the number-1 centre the team needs. Of course, looks can be deceiving, which is why we use numbers to back up those assertions. [Please follow the link for the full analysis.] (mar8)

20. It has been a real weird year for Oliver Bjorkstrand. Remember the start he had? Feels like forever ago but he did begin the season with 19 points in 19 games, including six goals and over three shots per game. He slowed down a bit as we approached Christmas, when the league was being torn up by COVID, with four points in five games before his break. But then his team had some games paused, he went on the COVID list, and he didn’t play for three weeks. He had a brutal January, with five points in 13 games, landing fewer than two shots per game. Fantasy owners were getting nervous, but since the All-Star Break, he has 12 points in 15 games, scoring seven goals. Not shooting a ton, but he’s also skating about 16:30 a night, or about three minutes less than earlier in the season.

My belief is that the young team doesn’t have a reliable centre after Boone Jenner, and with Bjorkstrand not skating much with him of late, it’s been a jumble of centres and wingers. That, with the lost ice time, will hurt, but he’s still having a good fantasy season overall. Over his last three seasons, he’s averaging 30 goals per 82 games. There is a lot of fantasy upside here, but he needs more help around him, and he needs more power-play time. (mar8)

21. I’m still reeling from the Nick Schmaltz seven-point game last week. Ian had plenty to say about that game here, but it’s just too impactful to slip right by me without mention.

If this guy can put his injury woes behind him, he’s just entering his prime at 26 years old. And although his Breakout Threshold should have began 100 games before it actually did (he’s now at 340 career games), I find that when there is an exception to our BT guideline it’s almost always due to frequent injuries. In this case, Schmaltz missed much of 2018-19, played all of 2019-20 and most of last season (missed the last four games with a head injury) before missing 19 games this season (UBI).

Seven-point games don’t grow on trees, so I’m sold on Schmaltz’s ability. But I’m also firm on his reliable injuries. So for now I consider him a player who will give you 65 points in 70 games, with upside for more if, as I said above, he can kick the injuries. (mar7)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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