Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 –Who is the better own in a keeper, Rasmus Dahlin or Tony DeAngelo?

All I can say is what a difference a season has made for both, as in 2020-21 DeAngelo was sitting on the sidelines as persona non-grata, while quite a few were starting to second guess Dahlin's "can't miss" label. Fast forward to now, and DeAngelo has been at or just below the point per game level all season, while Dahlin has climbed back to what was expected of him.

Who's better in a keeper? Given the positive steps Buffalo has taken this season, and the fact they have a team which is likely to get even better in the coming years, it'd be difficult not to go with Dahlin. Still though, DeAngelo is only 26 and likely will have a number of productive years still to come. Given that he's an RFA after this season, he'll likely stick with Carolina, a team which is better offensively than Buffalo now and figures to be still the better scoring squad for at least several more seasons.

What I worry about though is what DeAngelo will do when he isn't playing for his next deal. By that I mean if we look at the last time he had a great season, it was 2019-20 and lo and behold he was playing for a new deal. But once he had a big contract in his pocket, trouble started. No question DeAngelo will again earn a sizeable deal after how he's fared this season, and it likely will dwarf the two-year contract he inked with New York after 2019-20. If he felt emboldened to show his true colors after he signed that deal, one can only imagine what could be in store this time. Yes, people can mature and move past issues they had as a younger player; however, one need only look at Evander Kane to see that sometimes leopards indeed don't change their spots.

Trying to find player comparables for Dahlin is difficult, as dating all the way back to 1990-91 Quinn Hughes is the only other defenseman to have two seasons averaging .66 points per game or better by age 21. The problem is Hughes is only 22 now, so we aren't able to see into what the future might have in store for Dahlin, except for the fact that Hughes is on pace to have his best season yet and seems to be only getting better. Still, he's a tad below where DeAngelo is, so the expectation should be – at best – similar for Dahlin.

With Dahlin, the "risk" is he takes a few more seasons to reach where DeAngelo is, assuming he does get to that level, which I believe is realistic though given Dahlin's talent plus the upward trajectory of the Sabres as a team. The "risk" with DeAngelo is he either eases of the gas pedal once he has a fat contract, or he feels emboldened enough to make off ice waves again. But if DeAngelo has truly turned over a new leaf, then given his talent and his great "spot" on a great team, he could be a 75+ point d-man for at least a handful of seasons. Ultimately though, unless a team is in 100% win now mode, I think Dahlin should be the choice. He could be a truly great player, and losing one's grip on someone like him would be a tough pill to swallow. Meanwhile, owning DeAngelo comes with enough ifs as to make him the runner-up in this close contest.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team, points-only keeper starting 10F, how should Jesse Puljujarvi, Clayton Keller, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Travis Konecny, and Anthony Mantha be ranked?

Mantha is more than two years older than any of the others and has entered Certified Band-Aid Boy territory, which likely derailed what could have been a promising career. Yes, if/when he gets healthy there should be a spot waiting for him in the Washington top six; however, he's probably not going to be on PP1 until such time as the current crop of veterans are gone or past their primes, and by then the team likely will be in the midst of a rebuild, hurting whatever value Mantha would have. Those things all being said, if he finds a way to somehow stay healthy soon he could produce 60+, but I'd be hesitant to project him for more.

Dubois looked like he was having a full-on breakout after emerging with 23 points in his first 25 games this season. But as I predicted, that wasn't to last. Still, he might fall into the 400-game breakout threshold range, as not only does he have a larger frame but he also was in the NHL early, so his learning curve isn't the same as other 23-year-olds. He's also upped his SOG rate quite a bit in 2021-22, and one would think that as he ages and rounds further into form, Mark Scheifele eventually will begin to slow, though that could take several years. The consolation is Winnipeg is a deep enough team as to have a great top six, so even if Dubois is relegated to the second line at ES, he'll still be skating alongside talented players, plus even as he's slowed he's maintained his spot on PP1.

Keller is playing great hockey, especially in view of Arizona not being a very deep team. As I've said, sometimes it's better to be an unquestioned top talent on a lousy team than it is to be one of many on a stacked offensive team like St. Louis or Florida, as in those cases there are odd men out, while Keller is getting all the top line time at ES and on the PP that he can. That having been said, Arizona isn't expected to turn things around any time soon, so although that means Keller won't have anyone threatening his "spot" it also suggests there won't be others coming to bolster the team as a whole. That, in turn, might limit his upside.

Konecny is on his way to establishing career bests in ice time and SOG rate, yet his scoring is not very good, or at least it isn't in view of lofty expectations. Konecny's problem seems to be that if he plays with other talented forwards he tends to get lost in the shuffle; however, when he's the best player on his line he can't carry things enough to help his numbers. There is still hope he can turn into a solid player; however, more and more I feel like he's someone who's unlikely to top out at better than 70 points.

Pool Party is the wild card. He's played quite a bit alongside Connor McDavid this season; but the results have been hot and cold, with little in between. At times he was relegated to the third line, where he did nothing. Plus, he's been on the outside looking in when it came to PP1, unless there was an injury to someone like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Zach Hyman. The concern is no wing has ever stuck with McDavid, or, for that matter Leon Draisaitl, for multiple seasons, with it being mostly a revolving door. The same also was true for the most part with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, as between lack or chemistry or lack of money to pay to top wingers, those two never had a go to guy alongside them for years and years, with the exceptions of James Neal, Phil Kessel, and Pascal Dupuis, to whom I'd compare Hyman, plus Jake Guentzel, to whom thus far Puljujarvi has not shown he's comparable. Still, there is jackpot potential.

Given all this, how do they actually rank? I have Mantha last, as I see him as at best a 60-point player at his peak, and that's assuming injuries don't cut short his career. Konecny is probably second to last, as he's not someone I can picture topping 65-70 points given what we've seen from him thus far.

After those two it's less clear. The safest bet for the top pick is Keller given what he's doing now. But due to the state of his team he might be stuck in the 75- to 80-point range for some time. Puljujarvi's inconsistency is concerning; but he's still only 23 and is a bigger player, who thus might need until game 400 to truly show what he's made of. The same is true for Dubois, although he's already seemingly locked into a stacked Winnipeg top six. In the end, I still probably put Keller first, as he's got the lowest floor plus a still high ceiling. Dubois probably is slotted second, with Puljujarvi just behind him, as both of those two could pay huge dividends down the road, or they might never pan out as great as hoped.

Topic #3 – In a 14 team, keep 7 league starting 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2 Utility, 2G, plus with 4 bench spots and 1IR+ and counting W, L, SV, and SO as four of 11 total categories, how would these goalies be ranked for the short and long term: Robin Lehner, Jack Campbell, Petr Mrazek, Elvis Merzlikins, Cam Talbot, Ilya Samonov, Carter Hart, Jeremy Swayman?

I'll rank them; however, the bigger question is which of them, if any, are keepable in this league. We know the league starts 14 players, of which two are goalies, which does translate to one in seven, suggesting that it would be prudent for a team to consider keeping a worthwhile goalie. Here, however, the only one who I'd put down as a possible keeper is Lehner, given the fact that if he's healthy – sadly a big if – he's the unquestioned #1 on a top team. Yes, Campbell is a UFA to be and could be snagged by a team and given the reins as a #1; but given how he's fared of late and his prior career as a journeyman, I don't see him as keeper material. The rest of these guys either are not good enough or are too young to be given serious consideration as a keeper going into 2022-23.

How do they rank for the time being? Lehner, Hart, Swayman, Talbot, Campbell, Merzlikins, Samsonov, and Mrazek. If Mrazek had performed better or was less injury prone, he could have had a lot of value as the only Toronto goalie has signed beyond this season. But with how things have gone for him this season they probably won't feel comfortable with him as "the guy" and will end up signing another goalie as a UFA. Samsonov, as I explained my previous Forum Buzz column, his fared poorly in North America and his comparables based on his first three seasons of numbers are concerning to say the least. Campbell is likely costing himself millions as his performance slides, and he also might not be handed the keys to a team's kingdom as a result. Swayman is playing superb, but Linus Ullmark's deal is too large to have him pushed aside, at least not for the near future. Merzlikins is the chosen-one in Columbus, although his poor play might cause his team – like Toronto – to seek a veteran back-up this offseason who could push Elvis for starts. Hart remains Philly's golden boy; however, with the future of that team looking not so great he could be in for difficulties no matter how well he plays. Talbot is not playing too well, but he's a UFA after 2022-23, so chances are he ups his effort level.

Looking ahead three years, Swayman leaps to #1, followed by Hart. The rest I don't see as having major roles, except perhaps Samsonov if he somehow finds his game, which could happen given his age and what he showed in the KHL.

Topic #4 – Is Adrian Kempe for real, and how good can he be in a points-only cap keeper league?

Here's what we know about Kempe. Since 2017-18 his SOG rate and PP time per game have both doubled. Also, despite the arrival of Victor Arvidsson, Kempe has been tethered to Anze Kopitar and locked into PP1. Moreover, most of the young talent set to make their marks with LA are either centers or, if shifted to wing, would not be the "sniper" type that Kempe is.

On the other hand, he's doing all this in a contract year, which raises at least back of the mind concerns, plus, since this is a cap league, there's the likelihood that he'll next be earning at least double what he's being paid on his current deal. His SH% also is considerably higher than his norm, although looking at those who've scored more goals than him thus far this season, just as many have higher SH% numbers as do those who have less. One big concern, however, is that his secondary assists rate is a sky high 72.7%. That surprises me, as one would think a player who has a scoring touch would have more primary assists, because if his shots aren't resulting in goals they're leading to them; but apparently that's not the case, and it raises red flags.

Looking at his IPPs, although they're not above the 70% mark I like to predict a player will be very good to great, they're not far below, which is reassuring given his higher quality linemates this season. Plus, he did hit the 70% mark overall twice in prior seasons while not paired with good players, so it did show he has a nose for hitting the scoresheet.

Chances are he'll get paid enough to lock him into the top six, probably still playing alongside Kopitar for the immediate future but with a chance to be paired with some of the younger King pivots once they start to hit their stride, as Kempe will have just turned 26 when the puck drops on the 2022-23 season. What does the future hold? Good luck has smiled upon him enough this season – when he's also playing for a new contract – as to not have me confident that he will continue to see his scoring rise much, if at all. Rather, I see him as perhaps topping out in the 60-point range, give or take a few, with an asterisk being of course if LA explodes offensively then Kempe boat will be lifted by the rising tide. I find it difficult to envision him being able to hit 65 points down the road, although by the same token I feel he's a safe bet for reach 50 in most seasons, provided his deployment stays similar to how it is now. Think of Kempe as a younger version of Brendan Gallagher.

Topic #5 – In a league which starts 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, 1U, plus has 3 bench and with skater categories and scoring of: G – 3 pts, A – 2 pts, PPPt – 1 pt, SHPt – 2 pts, SOG – 0.5 pt, HIT – 0.5 pt, BLK – 0.5 pt, which four of these seven players should be kept: Mitch Marner, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, David Pastrnak, Cale Makar, Brayden Point, and Mika Zibanejad?

Right off the bat Makar is a slam dunk. In this column I rarely speak in absolutes, as often things can depend on the number of keepers, the cap, the categories, or one or more other factors. But I'll say this with no hesitation whatsoever – no matter what the league, if you have a chance to keep Cale Makar you do so. End of story. He's an amazing individual talent to begin with, and on top of that is in a superb situation. That adds up to him being a fantasy powerhouse. To help hammer that home, he's about to have his second point per game season in his first three campaigns. The last defenseman to do that was some guy named Paul Coffey, and if that's going back a little bit too long for your memory, do yourself a favor and go see how his career turned out. Yes, Makar is the easy first keep.

After that, it's time to consider a two for one trade, as unless this is an eight team league chances are guys here could help another team which might not have as great options for their keepers. I'd see about trying to trade two for Andrei Vasilevskiy or Igor Shesterkin, as the team could likely benefit from a goalie, and they're almost at Makar-like levels.

Since I'm not sure if there will be a trade and, if so, who will get moved, I'll cover things in case two more or three more keepers are needed. Right off the bat, these players are close enough that I think the ultimate decisions will depend largely on the categories, which skew toward goal scorers, shooters, and guys who hit. Pasta and Svechnikov are monsters in the league. And yes, I'm aware that Pasta has become only a point per game player apart from Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand; however, he still shoots a ton, hits a good bit, and is the sniper of the group. Svechnikov has taken a big step this season, and he figures to only get better once his ice time inches upward. I think he needs to be a keeper too.

The last spot – assuming there isn't a trade – is where it gets tough. Zibanejad probably is not a keep, as he's failed to rise back to the level of a couple of seasons ago and is the oldest of the others being considered. Aho has made a nice leap this season and is finally showing he can be more than a point per game guy. But I don't like that his ice time is as low as it is. I feel like Carolina is a balanced team, which is good for winning but not necessarily for fantasy. I realize that will affect Svechnikov too, but he's skating for roughly two minutes less than Aho is now, so he has more room for organic growth there than Aho.

That leaves Marner and Point. In the Forum thread Marner was a pick by many, and it's hard to argue with that. Still, Point has started to pick up steam, scoring 29 points in his last 27 games and he's yet to play a full season with Nikita Kucherov since 2019-20. Point also provides a nice balance of goals and assists, plus he also hits and shoots a fair amount. He's sneaking back up on people, who only think he shows up for the playoffs.

Thinking about this more, I think the guys to trade are Marner and Pasta, as they have huge name value. I feel like Point has more in him than what we've seen in the last few regular seasons, such that it won't be a steep drop off to keep him instead of one of those two, who, unlike Point, should be able to fetch one of those two elite goalies. In sum, the keepers are either Makar, Svechnikov, Point, and Vas or Shesterkin, or, if no trade is done, then Pasta and Marner for the last two spots.

Topic #6 – In a 12 team, keep 10 league with G, A, W(2), SO(2), OTL scored and 12F, 6D, 2G starting, a team in first place in the league has narrowed its list of keepers to the following. Who doesn't make the cut?

F- Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Johnny Gaudreau, Patrick Kane, Jake Guentzel, Elias Pettersson, Max Pacioretty
D- Victor Hedman, Kris Letang, Morgan Rielly, Tony DeAngelo
G- Frederick Andersen, Thatcher Demko, Tristan Jarry

First off, I can see how this team is in first, as in a league where 120 players will be kept in total one could argue this squad could end up with most if not all of its keepers being top 50 caliber. When that is the case, plus a team is in first, the thought has to be to do some trades.

It's possible one or more trades can be made now, if this is a roto league and its leads in the categories are large enough to keep the top spot locked down, or if this is a H2H league and the team(s) with whom trades are made are not going to make the playoffs. Worst comes to worst, the trade(s) can be made in the offseason; however, sometimes teams are less eager to pay full value for players when the season isn't ongoing. Still, this team is so stacked I can't see how it would be unable to make deals.

Guys I'd look to trade are those who could get you proper value yet are unlikely to improve and without whom the team can still get by. Not seeing the rest of the roster makes this more difficult, but names that jump out are Tristan Jarry, Tony DeAngelo, and Patrick Kane. Each has done enough to solidify his value, yet has little to no risk of improving, and, in fact, could even get worse. After all, Jarry has looked shaky at times in the second half, Kane is great but with Chicago set to get worse he'll have a hard time maintaining his scoring level, while DeAngelo, who I covered extensively in responding to Topic #1, was playing superb before he got hurt, but who's to say he won't ease off the gas pedal once he signs a new fat contract, or perhaps be emboldened by the guaranteed funds so as to have his off-ice issues rear their heads again? Turn those three into one player, and that will make the cuts easier.

Assuming the three for one trade happens, two more cuts need to be made. For starters, I'm not holding Pacioretty, who's started to have injury issues and is not best suited for points only leagues. The next one is tough, but it's probably Letang. I just covered him in Goldipucks, where I noted that he's not only managed to stay healthier these past three seasons than he had since back when he first entered the league, but his metrics suggest he should he scoring at closer to a 60 point level. He's also far better suited for multi-cat leagues. The other option is Pettersson, who until recently looked like he was on the way to being a colossal disappointment, but who's apparently connecting the dots again. I still worry that it might not last; but as we saw with Patrik Laine's turnaround this season, it's not wise to bet against players who are supremely talented, as they tend to figure things out even if there are some early speed bumps.

To review, my approach would be trade Jarry, DeAngelo and Kane for one player, preferably a defenseman. Then drop Pacrioretty and Letang. As I say to squads that have to make tough decisions like this, they're the cost of being a winning team and if the team was able to win once it should still be able to do so again even after being unable to keep its core.

Topic #7 – In a 19-team league with categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, GAA, and SV% where 13-15 players can be kept for up to $60, with any kept player costing 10% more each season, and then there is an auction draft for unprotected players, a team is contemplating a trade where it would give up Alex Ovechkin ($9.70), Carter Hart ($2.60), and Cale Makar ($3.20) for Igor Shesterkin ($2.40) and Roman Josi ($8.10). The team is not intending to keep Ovi and figures Josi would provide near the value for Makar over the rest of this season, but wouldn't be kept for next year. Should they make the deal?

What this boils down to, essentially, is if trading away Makar is worth it to get Shesterkin, who also happens to be 33% cheaper in cost. The thing is, while Josi would likely give the team only a minor drop off from Makar over the rest of the season, what about losing Ovi? How would his absence be covered? That seems to me to be a big void for the rest of this season, even if, as noted, Ovi would be too expensive to be kept for next season.

As for Makar vs. Shesterkin, it's all about the categories. Yes, two of the league's six categories are related to goalies; however, none factor in how much/often a goalie plays. That's a big deal, as although indeed Shesterkin is on pace to have perhaps the best season from a goalie dating back to at least 2000-01, a lot of that has to do with wins and saves, on top of SV% and GAA. Yes, there have only been nine instances in those 20 seasons of a goalie, like Igor this season, playing 35+ games while posting a GAA under 2.00 and a .930+ SV%, but among them are Brian Elliott and Dwayne Roloson. If we reduce the games played number to 20, the number more than doubles to 19 and the likes of Aaron Dell and Alex Stalock make the list.

In other words, if we don't need to factor in volume of play, it's less difficult to find goalies with very strong numbers in GAA and SV%. Accordingly, there seemingly is no benefit to the fact that Shesterkin is putting up these amazing GAA and SV% numbers while also playing lots of games, what with no scoring for wins, saves, or shutouts. As such, although Shesterkin is still every bit the superb goalie he is, and his future looks to be as bright as any goalie who's come onto the scene in a while, in this league a lot of what he brings to the table is, for lack of a better word, wasted. In contrast, although Makar's outstanding PPPts wouldn't count either, what would is his plus-minus, where he's firmly entrenched in the top ten in the entire league, to go along with his amazing scoring, which I already covered above. Plus, although Shesterkin would indeed be 33% less expensive for the team to keep for next season, both he and Makar are cheap enough for the gap not to be consequential.

Unless I'm missing something, and more than GAA and SV% count, I'm not making this trade. In this league with these categories Makar is just too valuable and irreplaceable, more so than Shesterkin. Let this also be a reminder that when it comes to winning your league, categories matter and can change the relative value of players considerably.

Topic #8 – What does the future likely hold for Dawson Mercer?

For starters, he's on New Jersey, which looks to be poised to be a very good team soon, thanks to a bevy of young talent at forward, Mercer included. Moreover, New Jersey didn't need to keep him at the NHL level, but chose to do so because they felt it would help the team and/or he was ready to play at the NHL level for good. Both are definite positives.

His results have been a bit up and down, as he emerged with 12 points in 16 games, but he also had stretches of one point in nine games and one in six. What I like though is he's had eight games with two or more points. While that does mean he's not very consistent, it also shows he can be explosive. It reminds me of Drake Batherson last season, who had 34 points in 56 games, but ten games of two or more points. Now I'm not saying that Mercer will make a leap next season like Batherson has in 2021-22; however, when a young player steps up and produces more than just a handful of elite games, it portends good things in the near-term.

You know what else there is to like about Mercer? Of his 34 points, a measly three have come by way of secondary assists. That means he has 11 times as many goals and primary assists as he has secondary assists. If Mercer was a pure sniper, then I might be concerned, as that could mean he's just a goal scorer and not much else, ala Andrew Mangiapane or Chris Kreider; but Mercer has nearly 50% more assists than goals, so what this shows is he has a scoring touch but also looks to be shaping up as a set up guy.

Everything is not perfect though, as his IPP is below 60%; however, some of that is attributable to playing with talented other forwards. Also, if/when he does get more secondary assists in the normal course, his IPP should rise.

For 2022-23, I can see Mercer scoring roughly 55 points, with a shot at 60+ if New Jersey vastly improves offensively. By the time he hits his breakout threshold though, the Devils should be firing on all cylinders and Mercer, whom I presume should be a top-six staple by that time, could be above a 70- to 75-point pace. Aside from Jack Hughes and Alexander Holtz, he's the forward on the Devils I'd want to own.

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