Ramblings: Josi’s Career Year; New Contracts for Francouz, Pavelski & Ristolainen (Mar 16)
Alexander MacLean
2022-03-16
One thing I have realized in house-searching in the Toronto area is that Fantasy Hockey actually can prepare you very well for a lot of real-life scenarios. Need to submit an offer, haggle on price, and know when to cut bait on a house? Trading has you covered. Need to know how to do research under the hood, manage schedules, and reading the fine print? I have learned all these things and more just from being a fantasy manager in competitive leagues with some other great managers.
On the flip side, in real life if you're better with spreadsheets, sales, or research, then play to your strengths in fantasy hockey as well.
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Michael Clifford gave his take on the Tyson Jost/Nico Sturm trade here, and while I mostly agree with him that there isn't a lot of shifting of the fantasy landscape as a result, I do wonder whether there's a chance that Jost gets a bit of a look in the top-six with the Wild. The former first-rounder really hasn't shown a lot of offensive upside at the NHL level, however, Frederick Gaudreau really shouldn't be a sure thing to stick with Kevin Fiala and Matt Boldy, while Ryan Hartman is slowing down of late. Hartman may still be a good fit with Kirill Kaprizov on the top line, but his grip is loosening, as his shot rate has dropped in each quarter, his scoring is down from Q2 to Q3, and his ice time has dropped from 20 minutes per game to just 18 in that same span.
There's no guarantee that even if Jost gets an opportunity on one of the top two lines that we would be able to thrive there, but as Hartman, Gaudreau, and countless others have shown us over the years, sometimes you just need the opportunity.
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For the second time this season, and the 25th time in NHL history, a goalie has posted a shutout in his NHL debut. This time is was Erik Kallgren's turn as the Auston Matthews-less Maple Leafs blanked the Stars. Kallgren stopped all 35 shots he faced, and has bought the Leafs a brief respite from their goalie woes of late. The former seventh round draft pick (2015-ARZ) was signed by Toronto less than a year ago after putting up a solid season, and an excellent playoff run in the SHL. He doesn't have the upside to grab a full-time job with the Leafs when everyone is healthy, but like Joseph Woll, Kallgren can be relied upon in spot-start duty when called upon.
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Sticking with the Leafs, here's an interesting thought regarding which prospect may have the inside track to play a few games closer to the end of the season:
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Roman Josi has now set career highs in goals (17), assists (51), and points (68), and still has 22 games left to play. Looking at his advanced stats and luck metrics, it's surprising that none of them stand out as extremely out of line. Josi has always been an excellent offensive defenceman, but it's all just coming together this year where the team is scoring around him, the power play is clicking, and his underlying numbers are all on the higher end for once. If you own him in a dynasty, obviously you should be looking to sell him high either at the deadline or in the offseason if you can get the right return for the 31-year-old. However, he's not someone you need to be pressured into giving away if you're being lowballed, as he does have a lot of mileage left, and the numbers really aren't all that unsustainable. Pacing for 60+ points for the next few years is extremely realistic.
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Looking at a few of the extensions signed of late, there are a few things we can glean.
Pavel Francouz – Goalies can either be very tricky to project, or it's super clear. There is so much volatility depending on which goalie starts more often for a team, and even then, it depends on how a goalie may perform that season as they tend to fluctuate more than skaters. On the flip side, teams generally only carry two goalies, so it can be a lot easier to project timeshares and the general value of each of the two. In Colorado, Francouz's extension would seem to spell the end for Darcy Kuemper, as either the Avs win the cup and he is too expensive to re-sign, or they don't win the cup, and they are less inclined to bring him back again seeing as Francouz is cheaper for similar numbers.
What this means for Francouz is that he will either be the main starter, or Colorado will find someone else to bring in as a platoon option with him. There's no reason the Avs should be looking at an expensive, top-tier option when you consider what it would cost in a trade, on top of what that player would then cost against the cap (further diluting the available funds for the rest of the roster). In short, Francouz should be an excellent value goalie next season, and he has been a little under the radar thus far this year due to injuries. If you can manage expectations and not need him healthy the entire year, he could be an amazing value. His current record is 10-3-3, with a GAA of 2.46 and a sv% of .920. Both in the top-15 of the league. A $2 million price tag for a projected 40 starts of excellent numbers is value that's tough to find anywhere else.
Joe Pavelski – The biggest thing that the extension signals for Pavelski is that he won't be moved at the deadline. A deadline move may have actually hindered his performance, so he's now someone you can buy with confidence at your own fantasy deadline. He now also comes with some cost-certainty for next year at a price that drops a little with his possible age-related performance drop. He's still pricier than you might like for a 37-year-old, but his skills are not based on his foot-speed, and he has elite hands and hockey-sense around the front of the net and in the slot. That combination will keep him performing well for your fantasy team not just this spring, but for the next few years as well.
Rasmus Ristolainen – The Flyers have been grounded so far from their pre-season expectations that I'm not even sure they know where to go from here. It appears that management is trying to take them back a few decades, as the physicality is about the only thing that Ristolainen really brings on the ice. Regardless of whether you're a fan of his or not you cannot deny that he is an exceptional producer in the bruiser categories. He puts up nearly four hits per game, his blocks are the highest they have been in five seasons, though his shot rate has been dropping in each of the last five years. With the Flyers closer to the bottom of the standings than the top, it's not too surprising that Risto's volume stats without the puck are higher than those requiring his team to have the puck. Something to keep in mind.
Looking at the length and value on the contract, you do wonder about Ryan Ellis, and how healthy he may be as he tries to work his way back from an injury that has robbed him of all but four games this year. Surgery is being considered there, so we really don't know what next year will look like. It also does call into question the long-term future of Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim with the team. One of them could be moved by the deadline, though more likely in the offseason, as part of an attempt to re-mold the roster.
While mentioning Sanheim, for his fantasy value, he really needs to get traded somewhere that will give him some power play time. He has averaged only 22 seconds per game with the man-advantage this year, but has the vision, and puck skills that would serve him well running a power play.
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Michael is always on top of some of those hot streamer options, and the Isles look like a decent option for the rest of the week. They remain with the fewest games played in the league, playing just their 57th game tonight, with only Minnesota under 58. On the other end of the spectrum, it may be time to dump your Ducks in one-year leagues, as they have already played 63 games. Only the Kings and Knights are close with 62.
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Find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.
Cheers!