Ramblings: Updates on Korpisalo, Boqvist, Krug, and Arvidsson; Blues Reinforcements; Robertson’s Hart Case – March 24

Michael Clifford

2022-03-25

It has been a very rough season in net for Joonas Korpisalo, posting just an .877 save percentage in 22 games (17 starts) on the year. That kind of play would be acceptable on the penalty kill, not as an overall average. There seems to be a reason for that, as the Columbus Blue Jackets said he's been playing through an injury, and this was accompanied with it:

The season makes a lot of sense if he's been playing through injury for a while now. He's rarely been a consistent performer since his rookie season, so there are a lot more questions to answer here besides just 2021-22. It'll be interesting to see what the Jackets do in the offseason. The netminder is a UFA and Elvis Merzlikins is signed long-term. Does Korpisalo want to go somewhere he could be a full-time starter? Not sure how many spots like that even exist for him.

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In better news for the Blue Jackets, it appears as though Adam Boqvist is on the verge of returning:

All told, he was having a decent start to the season with 19 points in 40 games to start the year. That was on the back of 20% shooting, sure, but he was also just skating 17 minutes a night. It seems like he's been in the league for a while now but it's just his third season, he doesn't turn 22 until August, and has fewer than 120 regular season games under his belt. He is a very good puck mover and once he starts putting it all together consistently, he will be a very good playmaking/transition defenceman for the Jackets.

His problem in the fantasy realm is Zach Werenski. He is signed long term with a monster cap hit and is pretty good offensively in his own right. He will get the PP1 minutes and unless they run a 3F/2D unit, being relegated to secondary PP minutes with this roster is going to be tough sledding. He typically doesn't bring much in peripherals – or hasn't yet – so it may be some time before he's a viable fantasy option in multi-cat leagues. Points leagues are a different matter, but he also needs a lot more ice time, too.

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Though Patrice Bergeron had been skating with the Bruins in practice and at game-day skate, he wasn't cleared by doctors for the game on Thursday night. Jack Studnicka was back in his place in the lineup.

There is always concern here when things like a potential infection are present. Boston is likely just playing it ultra safe with their top centre. Their next game is at home tomorrow to the Islanders.

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An update on Torey Krug:

These week-to-week injuries are always tricky. It surely won't be this month, but is it by the end of the regular season? A couple weeks earlier? Sometime in the playoffs? At this time of year, we won't get much clarity on the injury status of players from playoff teams. It's just the way it is.

Nick Leddy has jumped to the top power-play unit in his stead but it's a wonder if he'll have much fantasy value. There are probably good reasons he was the infrequent PP1 for the Islanders by the end of his tenure and couldn't wrangle the role from a rookie with the Red Wings. Then again, I've been wrong quite a bit. At this time of year, fantasy owners are desperate and there are worse ideas for potential power-play points.

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Both Robert Thomas and Vladimir Tarasenko were back in the lineup, skating on the third line, for the Blues on Thursday night. Both had recently missed time with injury.

St. Louis has had a very uneven year but on the whole, they're the fifth-highest scoring team in the league. They have eight players with at least 40 points on the year and there are still 20 games to go. That is also with none of those eight players missing fewer than four games but Ivan Barbashev.  They have six forwards with an 82-game pace exceeding 70 points, which speaks volumes about the depth of the roster.

Of course, from a fantasy perspective, we'd prefer Vladimir Tarasenko skating 20 minutes, and not 17, and Jordan Kyrou at 18:45, not 16:45. With that said, there has been lots of fantasy goodness here this year and with the roster mostly healthy, that should continue – their next 10 games include Philadelphia (on Thursday night), Vancouver twice, Arizona, and Seattle.

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The Rangers had some significant line changes at practice on Thursday:

One point I've seen made is that the Rangers lines are going to be fluid. The forward pairings of Zibanejad/Kreider and Strome/Panarin are likely rock-solid, but there has been a rotating cast around them all year. With the introduction of a couple new forwards, and some guys coming back from injury, it's unlikely full three-man combos stay together for long stretches unless they gel quickly. What I mean is that Frank Vatrano could have high short-term value and low long-term value. At least as far as the rest of the season is concerned.

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Max Pacioretty was officially a game-time decision for Vegas on Thursday night. He has been struggling with injuries all year and, well, that's sort of been the Vegas story this season.

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The injury train in Vegas keeps rolling as Laurent Brossoit missed Thursday night's game due to injury. The team is saying he's been working through an injury – hey that sounds familiar – and it's gotten to the point where he can't even be a backup for the team. That doesn't sound good but like I said earlier, we won't get firm updates from the teams. It seems Logan Thompson is the guy for the time being, though Robin Lehner may not be that far from returning.

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The Los Angeles Kings got some good news on the injury front as Viktor Arvidsson returned on Thursday night, resuming his role on the second line. This is another team that has just been brutalized by injuries, though theirs have typically been all on the blue line. Regardless, this is a big boost for the team's scoring potential and not a minute too soon for fantasy owners.

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Tampa Bay absolutely melted down in a 3-2 loss to Boston on Thursday night. David Pastrnak tallied a hat trick for the Bruins, but scored two of his goals with his team down 2-1 with 12 minutes left. Considering this was a game without Bergeron, and Boston absolutely mopped the floor with Tampa Bay, not a great sign for the Bolts. They've now lost six of their last eight games in regulation, though in fairness, almost all of these games over the last three weeks have been on the road.

Pastrnak had eight shots, two PIMs, and three hits, with a plus-2 rating in this game. Just an outstanding fantasy effort.

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The new-look Florida Panthers took a 4-3 win in Montreal during last night's action. Claude Giroux had a pair of helpers and four shots in the victory, while Ben Chiarot had an assist, three shots, and three blocks in his first game as a Panther. Not a bad debut for those guys. Even Robert Hagg got an assist on Aleksander Barkov's first-period goal.

Jake Allen did all he could in net, stopping 38 of 42 but it's clear this Florida team is just a juggernaut. They will be fun to watch in the playoffs.

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Roope Hintz and Nino Niederreiter both scored twice in the Carolina/Dallas game that went to a shootout. For Nino, he's now one goal shy of his second straight 20-goal season, and the sixth of his career. That is the kind of depth scoring Carolina will need a lot more of, from more than Nino, when they get to the playoffs.

Jason Robertson (more on him later) and Joe Pavelski assisted on both Hintz goals. Scott Wedgewood saved 44 of 47 before the shootout.

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The NHL awards talk has heated up of late and I just wanted to chime in about the Hart Trophy. Sure, Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Igor Shesterkin, Roman Josi, and a few others are all in the mix, some heavier than others. One name I want to throw out there: Jason Robertson.

His first problem is having missed eight games so far. When a player is going to finish a season under 75 games, he better have been absolutely highlight-reel-esque every night. With 58 points in 54 games, that doesn't really fit the bill. We have to admit that he's a very longshot out of the gate, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been incredibly valuable.

Let's just start with the numbers for Robertson on this Dallas team:

  • First in points/60 minutes at 3.57. Across the league, that is nestled between Leon Draisaitl and Mikko Rantanen.
  • First in goals/60 minutes at 1.91, clearing the next-closest teammate (Roope Hintz) by nearly a half-goal every 60 minutes. Across the league, he is fourth in this regard, behind only Auston Matthews, Filip Forsberg, and Chris Kreider.
  • Per Evolving Hockey, he's sitting with 19.4 goals above replacement (GAR) this season. It is a number that tries to encompass everything a player does to help a team win, whether offensive/defensive play, penalties drawn/taken, power-play prowess, and so forth. The number itself doesn't tell us much in a nutshell, so let's add context: it's nearly 40% higher than his next-closest teammate (both his top line mates). But again, that doesn't give us the right context because he's played fewer games than both. On a per-60 basis, he has generated 56% more GAR than the next-closest teammate (Hintz). League-wide, his per-60 number is the highest of anyone that doesn't play for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
  • From HockeyViz: expected goals for the top line decreases by 30%, compared to the league average, when Robertson is moved off the trio. Conversely, the expected goals of the team rises slightly when Robertson isn't skating with Pavelski/Hintz. All that is to say there's some small-sample evidence that Robertson is driving the bus on the Dallas top line.

I could keep going but I think we're getting the picture here. Robertson has been nothing but absolutely superb all season long. His problem is skating 18 minutes a night and not 20:30 like Matthews or over 22 minutes like McDavid. Fewer minutes means fewer points, a problem for a guy that has already missed several games.

Nonetheless, it's pretty tough to argue that Robertson hasn't been one of the best forwards in all of hockey this year. When we think about where Dallas is in the standings with him, it isn't hard to imagine where they would be without him.

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