Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. It was quite the week in the NHL as far as trades are concerned, even if the NHL’s trade deadline day itself wasn’t as busy as in some recent seasons. Dobber had you covered all on his own on Monday and did a fantastic job breaking down all the fantasy takes for the relevant deadline deals. You can find all the trade impact pieces linked here, while the complete list of deals leading up to this year's trade deadline is here.

The first big name to be moved on Monday was Marc-André Fleury, who was sent from Chicago to Minnesota. The Wild then sent Kaapo Kahkonen to San Jose in a separate trade for Jacob Middleton. Dobber had his breakdown of these trades here. In fact, kudos to Dobber on the job he did yesterday, as things got busy towards the end of the day.

Fleury has had a very up-and-down season this year, as he’s been known to do, on a very up-and-down Chicago team. The Wild clearly needed to make a change in net but it was surprising to see this one go through. This probably kills any value Cam Talbot had for the rest of the season.

I am very interested to see how Kahkonen fares in San Jose. That team has completely fallen apart defensively this year and it’ll be very hard for anyone to look good back there. Not sure how it gets better in the next year or two, either, given the absurd costs of the many anchor contracts they have. He may get some run as a true starter, but it may be behind a very bad team. (mar22)

2. On Monday, Dobber also commented on some more minor deals via his weekly Ramblings:

Ottawa trades Nick Paul to Tampa Bay for Mathieu Joseph. Joseph is solid return. He just turned 25, kills penalties, and has upside in the low 50s if he can play with skilled linemates. Whereas Tampa gets a huge forward (6-3, 224) who gets similar production but is decent for faceoffs. Paul has been a strong defensive forward this year. Compare the two players here.

3. Prospect Jack McBain was traded by the Wild to Arizona for a second rounder. This is a great spot for him because the Coyotes are not a deep team – and that includes their farm system. Here is McBain's scouting profile. He dominated the NCAA this year (his senior year).

4. Marcus Johansson has been traded by Seattle to Washington. The last time he was in Washington, he set his career high (58 points). But as is often the case – that was a contract year. Now 31, he won't be touching 45 points again. Unless he pulls a David Perron and decides that in his 30s is the perfect time to break out. Daniel Sprong is part of the package going to Seattle, and is a bit of a dark horse to be another Colin Blackwell-type. But he would need sweet situations with top linemates.

5. The Oilers have acquired Derick Brassard from the Flyers. At time of trade, he was having a great year in terms of production, however a 'great year' is a 42-point pace. So not so great. And his metrics are terrible. High puck luck with over 12% 5on5 S%, and his expected goals metrics are 45.3% which is about as bad as I've seen. He sees tons of PP time but only has two PPPts. This is likely just a depth move for Edmonton, and a cheap one (Philly retains half of his salary).

6. Drew Doughty might miss the rest of the regular season with what is believed to be a hand injury. Since Doughty’s injury in early March, rookie Sean Durzi has been logging the bulk of the power-play minutes for the Kings. Durzi is rostered in just 3 percent of Yahoo leagues and 32 percent of Fantrax leagues, so he’s worth adding in many league formats for those who need blueline scoring help. I mentioned last week that I added Durzi as a Thomas Chabot injury replacement, so I felt the need to bring him up again.

Just keep in mind that the Kings have a bunch of defensemen sidelined beyond Doughty, including Matt Roy, Sean Walker, and Mikey Anderson. With Durzi’s role on the Los Angeles depth chart unknown next season, this opportunity may not carry forward. That may be strange to say about a 23-year-old rookie defenseman, but it speaks to the Kings’ depth and how they’ve been able to weather the storm with all these injuries.

Another new first-unit power-play d-man to keep an eye on is Flyers' Cam York. The rookie blueliner has three assists over his last two games, including an assist on Friday. None of these assists have been on the power play, but four of York’s eight points on the season have been with the man advantage. Right now, York is getting power-play minutes over more experienced options such as Keith Yandle, Ivan Provorov, and Travis Sanheim. York is readily available in Yahoo league with just 1 percent rostership (28% in Fantrax). (mar25)

7. Sean Monahan was healthy scratched on Friday, as well as Saturday. He was probably due for it, since he’s gone 14 games without a point and is a team-worst minus-16 on a Calgary squad full of league leaders in that category. With a cap hit of over $6 million through next season, Monahan should also be considered a strong buyout candidate this summer. An injured hip from last season might still be slowing him, but a fresh start elsewhere without the expectations of a large contract might also help. (mar25)

8. It has been a very rough season in net for Joonas Korpisalo, posting just an .877 save percentage in 22 games (17 starts) on the year. That kind of play would be acceptable on the penalty kill, not as an overall average. There seems to be a reason for that, as the Columbus Blue Jackets said he’s been playing through an injury and will require surgery.

The season makes a lot of sense if he’s been playing through injury for a while now. He’s rarely been a consistent performer since his rookie season, so there are a lot more questions to answer here besides just 2021-22. It’ll be interesting to see what the Jackets do in the offseason. The netminder is a UFA and Elvis Merzlikins is signed long-term. Does Korpisalo want to go somewhere he could be a full-time starter? Not sure how many spots like that even exist for him. (mar24)

9. In better news for the Blue Jackets, it appears as though Adam Boqvist is on the verge of returning. All told, he was having a decent start to the season with 19 points in 40 games to start the year. That was on the back of 20% shooting, sure, but he was also just skating 17 minutes a night. It seems like he’s been in the league for a while now but it’s just his third season, he doesn’t turn 22 until August, and has fewer than 120 regular season games under his belt. He is a very good puck mover and once he starts putting it all together consistently, he will be a very good playmaking/transition defenceman for the Jackets.

His problem in the fantasy realm is Zach Werenski. He is signed long term with a monster cap hit and is pretty good offensively in his own right. He will get the PP1 minutes and unless they run a 3F/2D unit, being relegated to secondary PP minutes with this roster is going to be tough sledding. He typically doesn’t bring much in peripherals – or hasn’t yet – so it may be some time before he’s a viable fantasy option in multi-cat leagues. Points leagues are a different matter, but he also needs a lot more ice time, too. (mar24)

10. It'll be week to week for Torey Krug (upper body). These week-to-week injuries are always tricky. It surely won’t be this month, but is it by the end of the regular season? A couple weeks earlier? Sometime in the playoffs? At this time of year, we won’t get much clarity on the injury status of players from playoff teams. It’s just the way it is.

Nick Leddy has jumped to the top power-play unit in his stead but it’s a wonder if he’ll have much fantasy value. There are probably good reasons he was the infrequent PP1 for the Islanders by the end of his tenure and couldn’t wrangle the role from a rookie with the Red Wings. Then again, I’ve been wrong quite a bit. At this time of year, fantasy owners are desperate and there are worse ideas for potential power-play points. (mar24)

11. St. Louis has had a very uneven year but on the whole, they’re the fifth-highest scoring team in the league. They have eight players with at least 40 points on the year and there are still 20 games to go. That is also with none of those eight players missing fewer than four games but Ivan Barbashev.  They have six forwards with an 82-game pace exceeding 70 points, which speaks volumes about the depth of the roster.

Of course, from a fantasy perspective, we’d prefer Vladimir Tarasenko skating 20 minutes, and not 17, and Jordan Kyrou at 18:45, not 16:45. With that said, there has been lots of fantasy goodness here this year and with the roster mostly healthy, that should continue – their next 10 games include Philadelphia (on Thursday night), Vancouver twice, Arizona, and Seattle. (mar24)

12. The Rangers lines are going to be fluid. The forward pairings of Zibanejad/Kreider and Strome/Panarin are likely rock-solid, but there has been a rotating cast around them all year. With the introduction of a couple new forwards, and some guys coming back from injury, it’s unlikely full three-man combos stay together for long stretches unless they gel quickly. What I mean is that Frank Vatrano could have high short-term value and low long-term value. At least as far as the rest of the season is concerned. (mar24)

13. The NHL awards talk has heated up of late and I just wanted to chime in about the Hart Trophy. Sure, Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Igor Shesterkin, Roman Josi, and a few others are all in the mix, some heavier than others. One name I want to throw out there: Jason Robertson.

His first problem is having missed eight games so far. When a player is going to finish a season under 75 games, he better have been absolutely highlight-reel-esque every night. With 58 points in 54 games, that doesn’t really fit the bill. We have to admit that he’s a very longshot out of the gate, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been incredibly valuable.

Let’s just start with the numbers for Robertson on this Dallas team:

• First in points/60 minutes at 3.57. Across the league, that is nestled between Leon Draisaitl and Mikko Rantanen.
• First in goals/60 minutes at 1.91, clearing the next-closest teammate (Roope Hintz) by nearly a half-goal every 60 minutes. Across the league, he is fourth in this regard, behind only Auston Matthews, Filip Forsberg, and Chris Kreider.
• Per Evolving Hockey, he’s sitting with 19.4 goals above replacement (GAR) this season. It is a number that tries to encompass everything a player does to help a team win, whether offensive/defensive play, penalties drawn/taken, power-play prowess, and so forth. The number itself doesn’t tell us much in a nutshell, so let’s add context: it’s nearly 40% higher than his next-closest teammate (both his top line mates). But again, that doesn’t give us the right context because he’s played fewer games than both. On a per-60 basis, he has generated 56% more GAR than the next-closest teammate (Hintz). League-wide, his per-60 number is the highest of anyone that doesn’t play for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
• From HockeyViz: expected goals for the top line decreases by 30%, compared to the league average, when Robertson is moved off the trio. Conversely, the expected goals of the team rises slightly when Robertson isn’t skating with Pavelski/Hintz. All that is to say there’s some small-sample evidence that Robertson is driving the bus on the Dallas top line.

I could keep going but I think we’re getting the picture here. Robertson has been nothing but absolutely superb all season long. His problem is skating 18 minutes a night and not 20:30 like Matthews or over 22 minutes like McDavid. Fewer minutes means fewer points, a problem for a guy that has already missed several games.

Nonetheless, it’s pretty tough to argue that Robertson hasn’t been one of the best forwards in all of hockey this year. When we think about where Dallas is in the standings with him, it isn’t hard to imagine where they would be without him. (mar24)

14. The trade of Artturi Lehkonen to Colorado serves a few purposes for them. In the short-term, it gives them someone to slot on the second line in the absence of Gabriel Landeskog. Not that they’re in a fight for a playoff spot or anything, but it gives a bit of security in case Calgary makes a push for tops in the Western Conference.

Secondly, it helps lengthen the lineup when Landeskog is back. Lehkonen looks slated to skate on the second line until then but should move to the third line when the captain is healthy. It is a big boost to a third line that Colorado hasn’t really had all season long.

As for Lehkonen’s fantasy value, I’m not sure how much of a hit it takes, even if he’s on the third line. The Avalanche tend to play their top-3 lines heavily and their fourth sparingly. That means he should keep getting around 15 minutes a night, about what he was getting in Montreal, when Landeskog is back. Hopefully, it’s status quo as a depth option for fantasy leagues. (mar23)

15. The league did invalidate the trade, Evgenii Dadonov is going back to Vegas. Or staying. Whatever. 

Could the awkwardness of Dadonov returning to the team that tried to trade him provide some motivation? The saga of the missing no-trade list turned out to be the top story of the trade deadline, with Dadonov returning to the Golden Knights’ lineup on Thursday night after a brief stay as property of the Anaheim Ducks. For his trouble, Dadonov was reassigned to Jack Eichel‘s line while receiving first-unit power-play minutes. He responded with a power-play goal and two assists in that outing, giving him six points in his last three games entering Saturday action. Not bad for a player that Vegas seems ready to move on from.

Dadonov may still end up being the odd man out once either Mark Stone or Alec Martinez is activated. A post-deadline, in-season trade for Vegas to clear cap space would end his season. Yet there’s some short-term value here while the Vegas lineup still isn’t at full health (Max Pacioretty and Reilly Smith are also sidelined). It’s a bizarre situation, but it’s happened because the Golden Knights have bitten off more than they can chew in their quest for a Stanley Cup. (mar25)

16. The Dobber Prospects team, namely Peter Harling, have put together their 2022 NHL Draft dynasty rankings. For those in dynasty leagues – present company included – it is important to be up to speed on the incoming players. It is also important to delineate real-world value from fantasy value, and Peter and the team get a head start on that. I have it bookmarked to read over the weekend, and I suggest anyone with even a passing interest in rookies give it a read. (mar23)

17. Players have had big performances since the mid-season classic? There are a handful that stick out. For example, Kyle Connor: This is partly a function of Winnipeg having a lot of postponed games to make up, but Connor has been otherworldly production-wise for a while now. He has 37 points in his last 24 games going back six weeks, averaging just under four shots per game. He has 10 PPPs in that span, too. Just an unbelievable tear he’s been on as the Jets thrash around to keep their playoff hopes alive.

What’s more is just how consistent he’s been. He has just three games in that span without a point, never went a game without a shot, never went more than two consecutive games without a goal (that happened once), and had multi-point efforts in just about half of those games. Just a superb run from one of the league’s most underrated players. (mar23)

18. The Noah Dobson Breakout Season rolls along. It wasn’t as if he was struggling earlier in the year, but he was doing much better in peripherals than in flat-out point production. Up until Christmas, a span of 24 games, he had just 10 points, but had 49 shots, 32 hits, and 50 blocks. Over two blocks and over two shots per game, with a healthy amount of hits, can paper over the production issues.

As the rest of the Islanders team came alive in the second half, so did the blue liner. He has 19 points in his last 22 games, with nine of those points coming with the man advantage. For peripherals, he had 61 shots (2.8/game), 12 hits, and 37 blocks. The drop in hits/blocks makes sense when we consider that the team has been playing much better, which means fewer opportunities for blocks and hits. We will exchange that for a guy pacing 70 points every 82 games.

This has been a true breakout season for Dobson, and the fact the team was so bad until the holidays might depress his ADP next year. Might. (mar23)

19. Igor Shesterkin showed this week that he is human, allowing five even-strength goals on 24 shots to the Devils. Entering Friday action (a 5-1 win over the Penguins), it was only the third time all year that he had allowed more than four goals in a game, most recently being over five months ago now. 

Shesterkin’s career high in games played (in any league) is 35 starts, and that was from last year in the NHL, and he is already on start 43 this season. The Rangers may rest him a little more down the stretch, so his volume could take a slight hit in trying to keep his rate stats level. (mar11)

20. Some quick hits on recent signings:

Karel Vejmelka & Anton Forsberg (3yrs @ ~ $2.75M)– Both look to have locked in a fair share of the starts on their respective teams next season with these contracts. Ottawa should be an improved team overall, so Forsberg will likely provide more immediate value. If Vejmelka can get rid of his consistency issues (that takes a lot of time for a goalie) then he provides the higher upside.

Hampus Lindholm (8yrs @ $6.5M) – This is higher than my model has him projected, a little higher than I think he’s worth overall, and he’s also a player that brings more in real life than to your fantasy lineup. If you own him next year it had better be as one of your later defencemen, and not at all in a cap league.

Jake DeBrusk (2yrs @ $4M) – The Bruins needed to lock up DeBrusk in order to give some cost certainty to other teams that may want to trade him, however no move materialized. There is still some good upside with DeBrusk, but it seems like he needs to go elsewhere to be fully given the proper opportunity, and just to get into the right mindset to really flourish. With the Bruins, it’s status quo, but if/when he is traded, we could see a small uptick in production.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi (8yrs @ 4.82M) – After offer-sheeting Kotkaniemi away from the Canadiens, the Canes doubled down on him, locking him up long term at a more reasonable number than his offer-sheet number. This is a great bet for both sides, as the Canes get cost-certainty on a player that hasn’t yet peaked, while Kotkaniemi cashes in despite seeming to stall in his development a little more than might be expected from a former third overall selection. (mar11)

21. Moritz Seider is an absolute tank, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him up over 200 hits at his peak. Fantasy gold there. Also great to see in Detroit, Jakub Vrana (remember him?!). There hasn’t been much fanfare around his return to the lineup, so it’s worth checking in on whether he’s an available free agent or possibly someone reasonable to acquire in a trade at this point. He’s up to 13 goals in 20 games with Detroit since the trade that brought him there at last year’s deadline. (mar11)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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