Top 10 Next Potential $10-Million Players

Tom Collins

2022-03-28

One of the more frustrating aspects of cap fantasy leagues is when one of your players signs a contract that is an overpayment as soon as it is signed.

Most of these contracts are serviceable enough in your league, but any player making at least $10 million deserves a long look at whether they are worth keeping them. After all, depending on your league setup, it may be better to have a Timo Meier rather than a Mitchell Marner when taking into account the salaries.

When I did a similar column three years ago, only three players had a $10 million cap hit. Now, 13 players make $10 million a season, with Aleksander Barkov joining that list next season. If you increase the salary range, starting next year, 33 players will make at least $9 million.

In one fantasy cap league I am in made up of Dobber forum members, one trick I have learned in the past year is that you want to trade non-elite players about a year or so before their big-money contracts are due. After all, you get more value trading Sean Couturier when he’s scoring 70 points making less than $5 million a year, than from Sean Couturier scoring 70 points while making almost $8 million. Same goes for Artemi Panarin. Making $6 million while posting 87 points in Columbus will net you a massive return. Scoring a 100-plus point pace with the Rangers while making $11.6 million is tougher.

This means in fantasy leagues, you want to be estimating players’ contracts that are a couple of years away and potentially trade them before they sign their massive deals.

Below are the top 10 players who could soon sign for $10 million a season.

10. Trevor Zegras

Unless they are elite, it is really difficult for a player coming out of their ELC deal to grab a $10-million deal, but if there’s anyone in the current crop that could do it, it would be Zegras and the next player on this list. The Calder candidate has been impressive this season, and highlight-reel goals and assists help add to the aura (and the contract) of a player. Only five Ducks are signed past 2023 (Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg, Max Jones, Cam Fowler and John Gibson), so the team will have lots of money for Zegras if it wants a long-term, big-money deal when Zegras becomes a free agent in a year’s time.

9. Jason Robertson

A restricted free agent this summer, it’s not likely that Robertson will sign a $10-million deal right away. However, I can envision this contract being a two or three-year bridge deal. This would bring Dallas to closer to the end of the albatross contracts of Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, which will make them easier to trade (although they both have full no-movement clauses that would have to be waived) or to buy out. The 22-year-old Robertson is already the best player on the Stars, but he may have to wait a few years until he is paid like one.

8. Connor Hellebuyck

There are only three netminders signed for next year that are making at least $6.5 million (Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevski). Most teams prefer not to overspend on a goalie, but if there’s one goaler that might hit the $10 million mark, it would be Hellebuyck (I could add Igor Shesterkin to this list, but I’d like to see him have one more great season first, and he’s not a free agent until 2025). Hellebuyck has been the reason the Jets were so competitive in recent years, but he couldn’t cover for that team’s defense any longer. He still has another two years left on his current deal, but he might find a team that is willing to overpay for a goalie when he is a UFA in the summer of 2024.

7. Johnny Gaudreau

Gaudreau would easily make any list of the top surprises of the season. He was third in league scoring heading into Sunday’s slate of games and is on pace for a career-high 114 points (and only the third time he’s had a point-per-game pace). His plus-49 is tied with teammate Elias Lindholm for best in the league and is one of the best marks of the past 30 years (and Gaudreau has a good chance to have the highest if he finishes with at least a plus-61). His 3.2 shots per game are the highest of his career and he already has 20 power-play points. He’s a UFA this summer at the age of 28, and it wouldn’t take much to imagine one team giving him a $10-million deal.

6. Sebastian Aho

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The Habs did Aho a major favour when they signed him to a qualifying deal a few years back, as it means that Aho will be a UFA in 2024 at the age of 26. That’s going to cause his value to skyrocket from the $8.46 million he is averaging now. Aho isn’t as flashy as some of the names on this list, but he’s a clear leader of the Hurricanes and has hit an 80-point season in each of the last four campaigns.

5. Mark Scheifele

It’s easy to forget now, but a lot of fantasy GMs soured on Scheifele at the start of the season. Serving a suspension for the first game, plus dealing with Covid that cost him some games, Scheifele had eight points in his first 16 games. Now he has 54 in his last 45 games and is back to a point-per-game pace. Scheifele isn’t a free agent until the summer of 2024, but think about where the Jets might be then. Blake Wheeler will be a 37-year-old free agent, Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers are signed past that date and Hellebuyck will be a free agent at the same time. Scheifele will be 31 years old, but he could still command a hefty salary if he continues to produce the next two seasons.

4. Evgeni Malkin

This one will depend on whether he hits free agency or not this summer. If he re-signs in Pittsburgh, then he’ll probably take a discount. If he hits the open market, there will be a few teams that will be willing to offer the 35-year-old a massive dollar amount for three or four years. The oft-injured Malkin is still a beast when he plays, but you have to count on at least 15 games missed a season. He would immediately improve any team’s power play and would enhance everyone around him.

3. David Pastrnak

The Bruins forward has another year left on his contract, but he’s due for a significant increase from the $6.67 million that he is currently making. Since the 2016-17 season, Pastrnak sits fifth in goals, ninth in points, third in power-play goals, fourth in power-play points and fifth in shots. He’s a consistent producer and is always a threat for the Rocket Richard trophy. He’ll only be 27 years old when his contract is due for renewal, so he’ll still have quite a few more great seasons left at that point.

2. Nathan MacKinnon

It may be strange to think about it now, but when MacKinnon first signed a seven-year deal paying him $6.3 million per season, some thought that was an overpayment and too long a term for a player that was being labelled as a bust. Those takes did not age well, as MacKinnon has been one of the elite players of the last half-decade. He has one more year left on his deal, and while he said a few years back he would take another discount to stay with Colorado, a $10 million deal would be considered a discount for him. He has an 82-game pace of 113 points this season, his highest yet, and his worst of the last five years was a 99-point pace. That’s pretty solid consistency.

1. Jonathan Huberdeau

If I had a vote for the Hart trophy, Huberdeau would be top of my list. He was fourth in the league in points going into Sunday’s action, but maybe even better is how great he has made his linemates. Anthony Duclair has become a 70-point player alongside Huberdeau while Sam Bennett is on pace for more than 50 points for the first time in his career. Huberdeau is on his fourth straight season with an 82-game pace of at least 90 points, and this season he’s on pace for 114. His cap hit is $5.9 million, but with Aleksander Barkov recently signing a $10-million per year contract with the Panthers, it’s only logical that Huberdeau will get the same deal.

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