Saturday’s Game Picks: Leafs Should Score Lots

Flip Livingstone

2022-04-02

I hope you've been following along closely, hockey fans, because your picks prognosticators here at Dobber Hockey are starting to heat up a little bit, which hopefully translates into more cash in your pockets.

We mentioned last week that we should be in for an exciting stretch of the NHL schedule as the postseason draws increasingly near, and the past seven days' worth of action has been nothing short of sensational. Four more Saturday's left before things get real serious, so let's get this paper.

Can both Flip and Vlad stay hot? Read on and find out. Nine games on today's board with plenty of good spots to make some loot. Good luck today with all your bets and enjoy the action.


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Flip’s Picks

2021-22 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 9-5
Silver: 5-9
Bronze: 9-5

Side bets: 21-19

Total Saturday Record: 44-38-0

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Gold Pick
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers – Pick: Maple Leafs (PL -1.5) -110

Can you really ever mention the Philadelphia Flyers without mentioning how bad their goaltending is year in and year out? It's like mentioning the Maple Leafs potential for a Cup run without discussing their need to win a first-round playoff series first. Both are depressing conversations, to be sure. However, things are much more positive in Leaf Land these days with Toronto reeling off impressive wins in three-straight games sitting firmly in a postseason spot.

On the other hand, you have the Flyers moving in the complete opposite direction, a squad that is allowing way too many goals-against once again to leave Philly sitting only six points up on the lowly Seattle Kraken and rebuilding Montreal Canadiens for dead last in the league. This is a really tough spot for a Flyers team that owns a 3-6-1 over its last 10 going up against a Maple Leafs group playing some of its best hockey of the season.

Regardless of what goalie is holding down the blue paint tonight for Philly, it's sure to be a long evening going up against a Maple Leafs forward group which has registered 18 goals over the past three games. Martin Jones' last two starts for Philly = nine goals against, two losses. Carter Hart's last two starts = 10 goals against, two losses. I think you can pick up what I am putting down here.

Any way you slice it, if you're the Toronto Maple Leafs right now, your best and only option for playoff success is to keep winning. Simple, right? The opportunities for two points with the season winding down will not come much better than this for Sheldon Keefe's crew. Expect another solid performance from a Leafs group that should be fired up with the return of number one netminder Jack Campbell, who will get the start tonight in his return from a rib injury.

Maple Leafs continue to roll with another big win. Leafs on the puckline for my Gold Pick of the day.

Silver Pick
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Boston Bruins – Pick: Bruins (PL -1.5) -135

The Boston Bruins got their man at the deadline, dealing for longtime Anaheim Duck rearguard Hampus Lindholm and the move has already seemingly paid off. Not only did the 28-year-old veteran immediately sign a long-term contract extension keeping him in black and gold for eight seasons after this one, Lindholm is looking comfortable stabilizing Boston's backend while registering two assists, 11 shots, and a plus-three rating in nearly 23 minutes of ice time.

Combine Lindholm with the steady play of rookie goaltender Jeremy Swayman, and it's no shock to see the Bruins in the top 10 of basically every important defensive category while touting an 8-2-0 record of their last 10 games. Factor in the Columbus Blue Jackets currently mired in a nasty five-game losing streak and we have the making for a blowout situation for a Boston group knee-deep in a dogfight for Atlantic Division playoff positioning.

Columbus struggles on the road and they look downright awful right now while the complete opposite can be said for the Bruins. Boston is a great home team (21-11-2 at TD Garden this season) that is firing on all cylinders. This feels like one of those spots where I might get wild and put down a very sizable wager. Bruins steamroll in this one by at least two goals, my Silver play of the day.

Bronze Pick
Auston Matthews (Anytime Goalscorer) -120

I mentioned the great spot for the Maple Leafs in the section above, so that means it's shooting season for the league leader in goals and just the fourth Leaf ever to hit 50 in a season in Auston Matthews. Number 34 is on some kind of tear, posting 13 goals and six assists for 19 points during his current 11-game streak.

Matthews' recent performances have also played a huge part in the Maple Leafs' resurgence over the past two weeks and right now there are not many lines as dangerous as Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Michael Bunting. That's bad news for a Flyers team that's allowed the seventh-most goals against this season and gives up the fourth-most shots-against per game at 34.1.

This is a special season for a truly special player in Matthews and you cannot help but feel that he's not done just yet in terms of establishing career-high benchmarks in goals, assists, and points in what is already a career season for him in all three of those categories. Expect another big night for the Leafs powered by Matthews and his top-line teammates against the defensively-challenged Flyers. Auston Matthews (anytime goal) is my Bronze selection of the day.

Side Bets

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St. Louis Blues @ Calgary Flames – Pick: Blues +215

Minnesota Wild @ Carolina Hurricanes (OVER/UNDER 6.5) – Pick: UNDER -160

Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at outlets such as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.

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Vlad’s Picks

Gold Pick
Montreal Canadiens @ Tampa Bay Lightning – Pick: Lightning (-2.5)

Yes, I will shamelessly go for the low-hanging fruit as my gold pick this week. And no one can do anything about it. I just need some dubs alright? I'll try to spice things up next week. To be fair, that 2.5 spread does complicate things quite a bit. It's no small feat in the NHL to outscore the opponent by three goals. But, it's clear that Montreal's honeymoon phase with its new savior Marty St. Louis is over. Although, after a pretty fruitful trade deadline clearance, it's hard to put the fault on either St. Louis or the players. It's certainly not Emil Heineman or Edmonton's second-round pick that are going to win you games right now.

If that wasn't enough, the game is also being played in Tampa. The Lightning have lost only 10 games out of 31 at home this year, four of those in overtime. They're coming off their fourth win in a row yesterday, a strong 5-2 victory over Chicago, and should only add up to that performance. After having some of their best players go through scoring slumps, you should see Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Alex Killorn show up with a real killer instinct.

Silver Pick
St. Louis Blues @ Calgary Flames – Pick: Blues

Right now, St. Louis is not as comfortable with its playoff position as it would like to be. With 15 games to go and only four points separating them from the hungry Vegas Dadonovs in ninth place, they need to get something more out of their Canadian road trip than two losses in two days. Not unlike what most people started expecting midway through the season, Ville Husso seems to have won his spot as St. Louis' go-to guy for important matchups. He had to take over for Jordan Binnington after seeing his teammates go down 4-1 in the first period and was able to bring some life back to the squad, almost completing the comeback while stopping 25 shots out of 27. He should follow that up with another strong performance tonight in Calgary.

Speaking of Calgary, they're praying that their smothering offense can still rack up goals as we're getting into the later stages of the season. While they've been able to count on Jacob Markstrom to be a reliable netminder this year, the Swede ranks fifth in games played amongst goalies with 53. His backup, Dan Vladar, has only seen the ice 16 times so far. It can't be easy for any 32-year-old anywhere to keep up the energy come April and save your team in critical games like this night in and night out.

Bronze Pick
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers (Over/under 6.5) – Pick: Over

Guess who's about to be the first player to reach the 60-goal mark tonight. YES it's Auston Matthews. I'm just kidding, of course, but it's remarkable to see the Arizona native go. He is currently on a four-game goal streak, and he should go off tonight in Philly for his fifth one. This is also my now weekly reminder that I think he should win the Hart Trophy.

What makes this pick really tempting for me is looking at the goalie matchup. Jack Campbell versus Carter Hart. Is there a more lackluster duo in the league at the moment? Hart has allowed 24 goals in his last six games, and Campbell is coming off an injury that's sidelined him for almost a month now. Expect an entertaining output of goals tonight in this game.

Side Bets

Dallas Stars @ San Jose Sharks – Pick: Ducks (-1.5)

Los Angeles Kings @ Winnipeg Jets – Pick: Jets

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Boston Bruins – Pick: Bruins (-1)

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Starting Goalies

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UVIS BALINSKIS FLA
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22.2 RICKARD RAKELL SIDNEY CROSBY ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER
18.8 BRYAN RUST EVGENI MALKIN MICHAEL BUNTING
12.2 VALTTERI PUUSTINEN JESSE PULJUJARVI NOEL ACCIARI

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