Ramblings: Prospects Making Their Debuts; Players To Watch or Avoid at Next Year’s Draft Table (Apr 12)
Alexander MacLean
2022-04-13
If your league stats run through to the end of the regular season, you may want to check your stats/settings to make sure that you can now include the WPG/SEA game that has been rescheduled from today to May 1st due to inclement weather in WPG. I'm not sure if Yahoo or other platforms will extend to include it, but Fantrax will provide your commissioner the option.
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Reading through Scott Wheeler's prospect notebook from the past few weeks, Mason McTavish caught my eye, as both Wheeler and another source were raving about his impact on the game and how he was a man amongst boys in the OHL. With the retirement of Ryan Getzlaf, and the trade of Rickard Rakell there is a spot on a scoring line for Mason McTavish next year. He has creativity, plus plenty of scoring ability in close and an NHL ready mind and frame. He's my way-too-early pick as rookie of the year next season.
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I'm off tonight at my mother-in-law's, celebrating her 50th 29th birthday, so I won't be able to provide any updates on the key NCAA developed players making their NHL debuts. I'm sure you can find their boxscore stats and tons of eye-test impacts from their first games. Michael already gave some thoughts on Power, Beniers, and Johnson yesterday, but there are a few others that may be relevant for dynasty leagues as well who as of Tuesday afternoon look like they will be in the lineup. I will direct you to their DobberProspects profiles because the mini-sample at the end of the NHL season when the players get an NHL trial can really vary for different players, so read the scouting reports and try to keep the bigger picture in mind. It's always easy to overreact to these things.
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I wanted to go through a few players whose second-half paces or current hot/cold streaks are worth noting before they get forgotten over the summer.
Players to keep an eye on:
Noah Dobson – I pegged him in the midseason guide as a played primed for a big second half based on a few of his numbers trending in a positive direction and boy has he delivered. In the third quarter, he put up 21 points in 24 games, with 10 of those on the power play, and a whopping 70 shots to boot. He has the ability to put up those kinds of numbers over the course of a season, though it may be a bit streaky next year until Barry Trotz is likely replaced for 2023-24 when his contract expires.
Chandler Stephenson – Playing on a line and producing with Jack Eichel is an exceptional spot for the soon-to-be 28-year-old. He has 11 points in his last seven games, and hasn't even lost his faceoff volume in the lineup shuffle. He will be overlooked in Vegas again next year, but he's on pace to top 60 points this season, and could very easily do so again next year.
Conor Garland – Getting better deployment early in the year, Garland was putting up great numbers. His minutes decreased as the year went on, but they are back up over the last dozen games and it's no coincidence that the points have jumped back up too. The recent production can also be partially attributed to Elias Pettersson finding his game again, which should have a lasting effect next season on Garland's continued production.
Jakub Vrana – After missing a large chunk of the season rehabbing from a shoulder injury, but since he returned at the beginning of March, and especially in the last 10 games, Vrana has put up nearly three shots a game, and more than a goal every other game. He is also playing at nearly a point per game pace despite only seeing 15 minutes of ice time per game. As that stands to increase over the next few years (and it will), his production stands to follow suit.
Rasmus Andersson – After slotting in behind Noah Hanifin and Oliver Kylington as offensive defencemen go on the Flames to start the year, Andersson has really picked things up in the second half. Since the mid-way point, the former second-round pick has 24 points in 34 games, with nearly two shots per game, and 23 minutes of ice time per game (nearly three minutes of which is with the man advantage). He's still 120 games away from his breakout threshold as well. He should provide huge draft value next season in points-focused leagues.
Adrian Kempe – The Kings are having one of the quietest seasons of all NHL teams, and maybe it's just me, but I hear almost nothing about them. Anze Kopitar is having a solid season, and their young defencemen are stepping up in the absence of Drew Doughty, but the real unexpected star has been Kempe. The 25-year-old is flying past his previous career highs, and it's especially notable in the second half. He was a steady 0.5 points and 2.5 shots per game through the first three quarters of the season, but the last ten games have seen him put up 11 points and four shots per game. His ice time is steadily rising, but none of that is going to really be remembered by any of your fellow drafters next fall when they look and see an overall 50-point pace. If he's healthy next year I think 70 is more likely than 50.
Players to turn a critical eye towards:
Dougie Hamilton – The big free-agent signing for the Devils has not been the same since returning from a broken jaw at the mid-way point of the season, and has even gone downhill from quarter three to quarter four despite the team around him putting up excellent offensive numbers. For the first time since Hamilton's second year with the Flames, he is seeing more defensive minutes than offensive ones, and his power play time is the lowest it has been in three seasons. Damon Severson has also been seeing a large chunk of power play time, and with both Ty Smith and Luke Hughes looking to get a slice of that pie, Hamilton may end up getting pushed out a little towards a more defensively responsible role. His shot volume is still elite with over three per game, but it is dropping slowly too. He's not the same skater as a Roman Josi, so I do wonder about his longevity as a top-tier fantasy defenceman.
Anthony Duclair – One thing to note about Duclair is that he is somehow a ridiculous plus-minus influencer. I know it can be a very wonky stat, but year after year on both good teams and bad, with elite linemates and poor ones, Duclair consistently puts up the best plus-minus of his running-mates. That being said, he has hit a bit of a slump in the last month, and especially since Claude Giroux arrived. What jumps out is that Duclair is seeing over two minutes of power play time with the top unit for the first time all season, but he's not producing. His ice time is up, he's on a line with Art-Ross leader Jonathan Huberdeau, and yet… the numbers are going down.
It feels like Duclair has been around forever, but he's still only 26. He's currently on pace for nearly 70 points, and I'm getting the sense already that every Florida playing is going to be bumped up people's draft lists come September, just like the Penguins wingers like Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz were in the peak Crosby years. However, we can't expect 70 points out of Duclair, in fact 55-60 might be on the higher end of what I am comfortable projecting him for next year, so don't find yourself reaching for him with high expectations.
T.J. Oshie – Last year Oshie tied his career high with a 67-point-pace, and despite being 34 years old when drafts came along, was drafted as though he could repeat that performance. He has struggled of late, and is now on pace for his lowest output of his career. His ice time is down under 17:30 for the first time since his rookie year, his shots per game are the lowest they have ever been as well. Oshie has never finished a season under a 50-point pace before in his 15-year career, and has never shot under 10%. He is on pace to finish with his only season ever in double-digit minuses, and the declining ice time shows that the coach also sees that he just isn't keeping up as well nowadays.
Goalies – Lastly, do yourself a favour next year and don't draft goalies early. We went into the season with the undeniable top-four of Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, Robin Lehner, and Darcy Kuemper. Only Kumeper (4) and Vasilevskiy (8) are ranked in the top 15 of standard Yahoo leagues (W/GAA/Sv%/SO). Jakob Markstrom is number one, and he was drafter outside the top 100, same with Tristan Jarry at number six, and Jeremy Swayman at number 10.
Then there's the headache for those of us that drafted any of Jack Campbell, Vitek Vanecek, Sergei Bobrovsky, or Vasilevskiy. All of them have been absolutely awful in the second half, and they are killing fantasy seasons. In two of my dynasty leagues I am running identical tandems of Pavel Francouz and Karel Vejmelka, and they're putting up better numbers than those high-end names right now. Goalies are random to begin with, and then the good ones that get played more get tired down the stretch, or they get injured. The investment risk is just way too high for it to be a viable strategy in the long-term year over year.
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Stefan Noesen has some limited NHL experience and seemed to be out of the league for good, but his historic season in the AHL may spring him into another NHL contract. He’s the kind of player that can thrive in the right situation, but he will need all of the lottery numbers to line up to make it work. If I’m an NHL GM I’m at least offering a PTO next fall, if not a two-way deal.
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Find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.
Cheers!