Frozen Tool Forensics: Roster Winners and Losers
Chris Kane
2022-04-15
Depending on your fortunes and your schedule you might be eliminated from contention, finishing your finals week, or maybe pushing through to the end of the season. This is always a tricky time to produce content as everyone is in such a different place. My goal this week is to highlight a few roster changes that are relevant heading into the weekend and the rest of the season, but also may be worth monitoring for those teams headed to the playoffs.
Even at this late stage in the game, players are still getting new and different deployment, sometimes for good, sometimes for ill. I grabbed two different reports comparing player's time on ice, one for the last week, and one for the last month to get an idea of what is happening now and what has changed over the last couple of weeks. Frozen Tools makes this really easy by allowing you to set custom date ranges, set a minimum number of games (I used three over the last week), and specify skater position (we are only looking at forwards today). I exported the reports and combined them to get all of the necessary data in one place. We will be focused on percentages as opposed to straight time on ice in the reports as actual time in play states can fluctuate based on the number of penalties drawn, overtimes, etc.
(Note: All data is as of April 14.)
First up we are looking at which players have increased their even strength share the most. For this look I added an additional filter of 15 total minutes. I wanted to focus on players that were likely reasonably fantasy relevant and a player who gets 10 minutes isn't going to cut it, even if they have increased from five.
Last Week | Last Month | Change | |||||||||
Name | Pos | Team | %TOI | %PP | %EV | %TOI | %PP | %EV | %TOI | %PP | %EV |
VASILY PODKOLZIN | L | VAN | 26.7 | 30.2 | 29.5 | 21 | 13 | 23.6 | 5.7 | 17.2 | 5.9 |
JACK ROSLOVIC | C | CBJ | 37.1 | 43.5 | 34.9 | 30.6 | 36.8 | 29.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.6 |
JUHO LAMMIKKO | C | VAN | 26.3 | 1.2 | 28.7 | 22.4 | 1.2 | 23.5 | 3.9 | 0 | 5.2 |
RYAN DONATO | L | SEA | 28.1 | 46.2 | 30.1 | 24.9 | 45.1 | 25.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 4.3 |
GUSTAV NYQUIST | L | CBJ | 35.9 | 59 | 31.1 | 31.4 | 62.8 | 27.3 | 4.5 | -3.8 | 3.8 |
Some exciting developments here. First up in Vancouver, Vasily Podkolzin is skating with JT Miller. Podkolzin's deployment has shifted over the course of the season, but it has bumped up for the last three games. He has even gotten a few shifts on the power-play though it has been inconsistent. It has translated to three points and six shots over his last three games. Juho Lammikko is much less exciting, as his bump in deployment is to the third line where he barely meets the 15-minute threshold.
Over in Columbus, Jack Roslovic and Gustav Nyquist are playing on a new look first line with Patrik Laine. Roslovic has six points and 11 shots in his last two games, so it appears to be agreeing with him, (skating over 21 minutes a night would do that though). Nyquist has five points in his last four to go along with eight shots, and has skated over 20 minutes in his last three. A big loser in this situation is Oliver Bjorkstrand who now appears to be residing on the third line, though is still getting top power-play usage.
Last but not least Ryan Donato. Donato has been bouncing around the Kraken lineup all season. Given the lack of scoring punch the Kraken have mustered this season, you would think Donato might have been given a shot in the top six prior to now, but here he is. He has been skating on a top line with Jordan Eberle and getting over 17 minutes a night in three of the last four games. In Seattle's last game he saw over 18 minutes with (potential future star) rookie Matty Beniers. They have played together in the past, and certainly had some chemistry with Beniers setting up a Donato goal for Benier's first NHL point. Donato had a bit of run going even prior to his new deployment so is now up to five points in his last six games.
Next up: changes in power-play deployment.
Last Week | Last Month | Change | |||||||||
Name | Pos | Team | %TOI | %PP | %EV | %TOI | %PP | %EV | %TOI | %PP | %EV |
TRAVIS BOYD | C | ARI | 29.2 | 71.7 | 25.3 | 26.8 | 36 | 26.5 | 2.4 | 35.7 | -1.2 |
ALEX CHIASSON | R | VAN | 27.3 | 66.9 | 25.5 | 20.6 | 31.4 | 21.8 | 6.7 | 35.5 | 3.7 |
PAUL STASTNY | C | WPG | 29.9 | 68.2 | 28.6 | 29.9 | 32.9 | 29.8 | 0 | 35.3 | -1.2 |
ARTTURI LEHKONEN | L | COL | 26.3 | 68.7 | 23.1 | 26.6 | 40.9 | 25.4 | -0.3 | 27.8 | -2.3 |
MARCUS FOLIGNO | R | MIN | 28 | 48.9 | 26.2 | 27.1 | 21.6 | 27.1 | 0.9 | 27.3 | -0.9 |
So Travis Boyd is suddenly getting a lot of power-play time, but the unit is Travis Boyd, Nick Ritchie, Nick Schmaltz, and Matias Maccelli, which does not inspire a lot of confidence.
Hoping back to Vancouver for a moment, Alex Chiasson is getting even-strength time with JT Miller (and Podkolzin) and top power-play time. He is definitely very interesting with seven points in his last four games and 16 shots over that time period.
Paul Stastny is also interesting playing with Nikolaj Ehlers at even strength and on what seems to be the top power-play at the moment. The caveat here is that this is all without Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, and Wheeler at least could be back any time. While they are out though, Stastny appears to be taking advantage with five points in his last three games and 13 shots over his last four games.
Like with Stastny, Artturi Lehkonen is getting a temporary boost with the absence of Gabriel Landeskog, and Nazem Kadri. He has been on the top power-play unit in Colorado and on what is maybe a second like with Valeri Nichushkin and JT Compher. He has three points in his last four, but hasn't been converting as much as we might expect given his deployment.
Marcus Foligno isn't too exciting here. He is getting more power-play time yes, but it is on a second unit that hasn't been particularly successful. Joel Eriksson Ek remains on the top unit with Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy, and Kirill Kaprizov.
And just quickly – and look at some players who have been falling recently
Last Week | Last Month | Change | |||||||||
Name | Pos | Team | %TOI | %PP | %EV | %TOI | %PP | %EV | %TOI | %PP | %EV |
VALERI NICHUSHKIN | R | COL | 28.7 | 81.5 | 24.7 | 34.3 | 76.9 | 31.1 | -5.6 | 4.6 | -6.4 |
CAM ATKINSON | R | PHI | 22.1 | 45.1 | 19.5 | 28.4 | 50.4 | 25.7 | -6.3 | -5.3 | -6.2 |
JORDAN GREENWAY | L | MIN | 19.5 | 12.7 | 21.2 | 23.6 | 4.9 | 26.4 | -4.1 | 7.8 | -5.2 |
EVAN RODRIGUES | L | PIT | 19.6 | 35.5 | 19.2 | 23.9 | 29.9 | 24.3 | -4.3 | 5.6 | -5.1 |
DERICK BRASSARD | L | EDM | 13.2 | 6.5 | 15.1 | 18.5 | 19.6 | 20.2 | -5.3 | -13.1 | -5.1 |
Nichushkin was hurt by the further injuries in Colorado, losing much of his deployment to first Andre Burakovsky at even strength, and then Lehkonen on the power-play.
Evan Rodrigues has a chance to gain some time back with both Bryan Rust and Evgeni Malkin potentially out again. Both should be short term though, as Rust has a non-Covid illness, and Malkin a four-game suspension.
Last Week | Last Month | Change | |||||||||
Name | Pos | Team | %TOI | %PP | %EV | %TOI | %PP | %EV | %TOI | %PP | %EV |
DEREK GRANT | L | ANA | 25.9 | 0 | 25.4 | 28.3 | 25.4 | 26.3 | -2.4 | -25.4 | -0.9 |
EVANDER KANE | L | EDM | 30.4 | 17.2 | 33.6 | 31.8 | 42.1 | 33.5 | -1.4 | -24.9 | 0.1 |
DYLAN STROME | C | CHI | 33.8 | 51.4 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 67.6 | 33.1 | 0.1 | -16.2 | 0.6 |
KAILER YAMAMOTO | R | EDM | 27.5 | 19.6 | 28 | 28.3 | 35.7 | 28 | -0.8 | -16.1 | 0 |
BARCLAY GOODROW | C | NYR | 22.6 | 0.3 | 22.8 | 26 | 16 | 24.7 | -3.4 | -15.7 | -1.9 |
Two notes here: Both Evander Kane and Kailer Yamamoto have lost significant power-play time. Edmonton appears to be running essentially two units with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Zach Hyman seems to be getting the first crack, and then Jesse Puljujarvi the second. This is definitely subject to change as Kane and Yamamoto were getting a lot more time last month.
Dylan Strome hasn't lost power-play deployment so to speak. He is still getting time on a unit with Patrick Kane, Taylor Raddysh, and Alex Debrincat, but Chicago seems to be splitting unit time a lot more evenly lately and the second unit of Kane, Jonathan Toews, Kirby Dach, and Lukas Reichel is seeing a lot more time. It is leading to an overall loss of power-play time, plus he isn't playing with Kane anymore at even strength. All in all, not great news for Strome.
That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.