In my Ramblings on Tuesday, I talked about some predictions I made before the season and whether they panned out or flamed out. I want to go into this a bit deeper, looking into my methodology and the players we really, really missed on.
For season-long rankings, I use something called Standings Gained Points (SGP). I first heard of it from reading a fantasy baseball book by the author Tanner Bell, though I'm not sure he was the first to think of it. All SGP does is tell us how much a certain player can help in a certain category, based on replacement-level production for a given fantasy league. Then we tally how much they can help us when looking at the contributions across all categories. We are going to look at the three positions (C/W/D) and the misses therein. As always, it's important to learn lessons from mistakes, and that's the whole point of these exercises, right? We'll be using Yahoo rankings and getting some secondary stats from Natural Stat Trick.
Brayden Point (My preseason ranking: 15th among centres by SGP)
While we could blame some of this on injury, his 82-game pace is still just 73 points. Barring an absolute nuclear tear, he won't come close to finishing top-15 among centres, and wouldn't if he were to play 75 games, either. The funny part is, the biggest concern about his multi-cat profile was a lack of hits, and he could pass (72) his total from the previous three seasons combined (78). The issue seems to be his individual points percentage (IPP), or the rate at which he garners a point when Tampa scores with him on the ice. He is under 55% at 5-on-5 this year, after not finishing under 66% in any of his last four seasons. I imagine we'll be drafting him highly again next year, but maybe this isn't a true-talent 90-point centre. (I think he is, but deeper digging is what the summer is for.)
Sam Bennett (My preseason ranking: 17th)
Bennett was one of the players I was considerably higher on than most people heading into 2021-22. Part of it was the turnaround in shot rate when getting to Florida, and part of it was his likelihood of staying in the top-6 with top PP minutes. While he stayed in the top-6, he did not stay on the power play, and it has led to just 8 PPPs. He still had a very good fantasy season, but the lack of PP production capped his upside. One has to wonder if he gets the role next season or not. When it comes to power-play roles, don't count chickens for non-elite players.
Sam Reinhart (My preseason ranking: 28th)