Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Now that the 2021-22 regular season has ended, the temptation is for poolies to ease off the gas pedal and not think about hockey for a while, like what some NHLers on non-playoff teams are likely doing. Speaking of teams not competing for the Cup, the three skaters being covered here (Clayton Keller, Troy Terry, Brock Nelson) are on such squads, making their data all the more crucial to note since come next season it'll have been longer since you've seen them play than those who are still lacing up their skates. Stop now to consider which one had a 2021-22 that was too hot, versus too cold or just right. Then lock in your choices to see if you're on your A game by correctly guessing all three.

Clayton Keller (67 games, 28G, 35A, 177 SOG, 11 PPPts, 20:08 TOI, 2:53 PP, 67.9% PP%)

A season after being picked seventh overall, Keller scored 65 points for a team that tallied a mere 208 goals, second worst in the NHL. Keller's next three campaigns saw him post less impressive scoring rates in the 47- to 52-point range, leading some to wonder if he'd be able to fulfill his immense talent while stuck in the hockey wasteland that is Arizona. Just when folks might've resigned themselves to Keller disappointing, he awoke this season to the tune of 63 points in 67 games. Was it just a desert mirage? No; in fact signs point to Keller being able to use 2021-22 as a stepping-stone to even better seasons to come.

First off, Keller emerged with just four points in his first 11 games, meaning he went on to tally 59 points in his next 56 contests, which would've translated to a full season pace of 86. Also, in the 15 games Keller missed, Arizona managed just 33 goals, for 2.2 per game, versus 2.58 in the contests in which he appeared. That underscores how integral he is, plus how well he produced despite his team's woeful offense, which was the worst in the league (2.51 goals per game overall). Yes, Arizona isn't likely to get much better next season or perhaps in the near term. Even still, things shouldn't be as bad as they were in 2021-22, not only given how they fared when he did play, but also since the team's cumulative goals per game was 2.60 in the prior seasons since Keller became an NHL regular.

Something else notable is Keller took the ice for 67.9% of the team's PP minutes. Despite this, he didn't manage even one PPPt per every six games, thanks in large part to Arizona's 13.9% PP conversion rate being among the ten worst of all NHL teams over the past five seasons. And looking at the other 35 forwards who appeared in 40+ games this season and saw a higher percentage of their team's PP minutes than Keller, just two – Boone Jenner and Oliver Bjorkstrand – failed to average at least one PPPt per every four games played, and they were both outside of the top 30. Moreover, the two teams with worse PP conversion rates than Arizona were Montreal and Philly, and they had three players (Nick Suzuki, Mike Hoffman, Cole Caufield) and one player (Claude Giroux, before he was traded) with higher PPPt/game rates than Keller's despite a worse team PP% and playing a lower percentage of their team's PP minutes. Keller's PPPt rate clearly was unsustainably low.

Sticking with the PP, Keller, even though he missed 15 games, still finished with the 89th most PP minutes among all NHL forwards; yet his 11 PPPts ranked him only tied for 110th, with only Jenner, Travis Konecny and Jordan Eberle tallying fewer PPPt despite more PP minutes, further proving Keller was snake-bitten on the man advantage. Lastly, Keller's PP IPP was 61.1%, after having been 70-72% in three of his previous four seasons, meaning he was slighted at least a couple of PPPts even amidst the team's struggles. Add that to the at least handful of PPPts he should've received based on what players on other teams who took the ice for many PP minutes, including four on teams which fared worse on the PP, and Keller likely should've tallied roughly 20 PPPts in his 67 contests on this year's Coyotes squad.

Something else that's notable about Keller is his SH%, which was 7.0% in 2018-19, 9.2% in 2019-20, 11.3% in 2020-21, and 15.8% this season more than doubling in the span of three campaigns. How did this occur? Shot selection, as Keller went from 17.5% of his SOG in 2018-19 taken from 0-15 feet, to 18.4%, to 22.5%, to 26.5%. So his progression is not only logical but it's more likely that his SH% will either hold steady or continue to rise. That's key, as he fired only at 2.64 SOG per game, a rate which can definitely can rise in the normal course, as SOG per game was an area in which Arizona not only ranked dead last this season but worst among any NHL team dating back to 2014-15. In fact, Keller averaging 2.64 SOG per game for a team which fired only 25.9 per game meant he was taking over 10% of his team's shots when playing. Given that more than two thirds of teams averaged 30+ SOG per game, Arizona should be able to see gains in that area, and a rising tide should lift Keller's SOG boat, which also should increase in the normal course, leading to goals/points.

As far as metrics, Keller's overall IPP was below not only what it was in his successful rookie campaign but also another as well, so we know he can do better in that area. His secondary assist rate of 37.1% was a tad below his career average of 41.2%, so that shouldn't affect things. But due to his team's struggles, he only had an OZ% of 47.0%, which was far below his career average of 61.8% and, in turn, can only go up from here, likely by a lot.

Although owning players on high scoring teams can be great, in some cases the offense is so spread around that other than top stars you can't be sure who'll benefit. In contrast, teams that struggle offensively still can and do yield solid fantasy assets, like Keller, who are the best of their best and accordingly receive all the ice time they can handle. Keller showed in 2021-22, despite serious challenges posed by the team he was on, that he can be a very good fantasy asset. If anything, he should've done even better and things for his team can't get any worse, signifying his 2021-22 was TOO COLD and giving him a rating of 2.0, as I'd expect him to produce in the 85+ point range in 2022-23 provided Arizona does get even a slight bit better, and he could peak at 100+ if/when the team truly rounds into form.

Troy Terry (75 games, 37G, 30A, 192 SOG, 15 PPPts, 18:14 TOI, 2:03 PP, 45.4% PP%)

After playing 33-48 games for the Ducks in each of the past three seasons and sporting a scoring rate in the range of 26-34, Terry seemed to be at risk of not living up to the lofty expectations that accompanied him after a successful college campaign and point per game AHL tenure. On the cusp of hitting his 200-game breakout threshold this season, Terry exploded, storming out of the gates with 22 points – 12 of them goals – in his first 17 games this season. But then he cooled, with only 45 points in 58 subsequent contests. Is the real Terry who we saw in games 1-17, or the less impressive player thereafter? The answer is, somewhere in between, i.e., near where he finished for the season.

Looking at Terry's numbers, what of course jumps out is his shooting percentage, which, at 19.3% seems to be high. Is it really that elevated, all things considered? Apparently yes, as going back to 2000-01 and looking at prior 82 game seasons, a total of just four other wingers appeared in 70+ games while, in the same campaign, scoring 35+ goals while not posting point per game numbers but sporting a 19.0% SH%: Milan Hejduk, at age 24, Loui Eriksson, at 23, and Brad Boyes and Thomas Vanek, both at 25. So all four were roughly at the same stage of their careers as Terry, making for good comparisons. What happened to them thereafter? Hejduk had several seasons where his scoring rate was in the 60- to 75-point range, Eriksson hit 71+ in each of his next two campaigns, Boyes posted 72 the following season, but never again topped 55, and Vanek had three 61+ point seasons. While what Terry did this season was a rarity, and may mean he has less of a chance of becoming truly elite, comparables suggest it doesn't necessarily signify he should do worse.

Shifting to IPPs, Terry's this season – both overall and on the PP – were over the 70% mark I equate with a player who has a good shot at sustained fantasy success. Yes, in past seasons his IPPs were low even as he played with worse linemates, and it's often the case that before players break out one can get a better sense that they're "for real" because although not a lot of offense was happening while they were on the ice, whatever there was they were a large part of it via high IPPs. With Terry's IPPs spiking as his quality of linemates vastly improved, and while he's still young, there is less concern about worse IPPs in the past.

What of Terry's secondary assists percentage, which was 50%? It is true that among 18 players who finished more goals this season, only Jason Robertson and Chris Krieder had more secondary assists than primary and Kreider is widely regarded to have overachieved; but Robertson is considered an up and comer. Plus, Terry's ratio of goals to assists was close to those of Alex DeBrincat and Jake Guentzel, which is pretty nice company in which to find oneself. In other words, by being a player who scores a lot, but also posts a fair number of assists, Terry's secondary assist rate being above 50% is perhaps somewhat less alarming.

Going back to Hejduk, in the more than a decade he was on fantasy radars, his cumulative average PP time per game was 3:39, or 1:36 more than Terry received this season. Part of that is due to time having gone to Ryan Getzlaf, who's retiring, and Rickard Rakell, who was dealt in March. Even still though, the highest average PP time per game for a Duck forward this season was 2:38 per contest for Trevor Zegras. Part of that is due to Anaheim having finished 27th in the league with 2.67 PP opportunities per game; however, even if that wasn't the case the team seems to favor not leaning on one PP unit substantially, making it so even if Terry is gifted added minutes due to his improved play and those other two no longer being in the picture, it's not clear he'll substantially bolster his scoring in that area. And even if he does, what might happen is his 71.4% IPP on the PP could shrink, as it was perhaps a by product of playing with lesser talented Ducks players, and once he's on the top PP unit he'll be with the best of the best on the team and could find PPPts harder to come by, as in the last 17 games where Terry logged more than half his team's man advantage minutes he managed a mere 2 PPPts, versus 13 in his other 58 games.

What also can't be ignored, though, is Q4 was the first quarter where Terry played primarily with phenom in the making Trevor Zegras, and the result was 15 points in 16 games and a SOG rate of 3.5, versus 2.6 overall. That is likely a preview of things to come, and as such some of the concerning numbers/metrics might become moot.

Terry's breakout season has given poolies as many questions as answers. For every bit of good news it seemed like there was an area of possible concern. But I've found when that is the case things tend to balance things out, resulting in a status quo. Plus, concerns about Terry also have to be considered in the context of him just hitting his breakout threshold, meaning he still could get better, as should his team, with him being a prime beneficiary. So despite some red flags, I see enough encouraging data to suggest Terry's 2021-22 was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.75. I'd look for Terry to produce in the 70s until/unless the Ducks become a top team, which might enable him to top 80.

Brock Nelson (72 games, 37G, 22A, 171 SOG, 14 PPPts, 17:40 TOI, 2:15 PP, 53.3% PP%)

Also a former first round selection, Nelson didn't make it to the NHL until he was 22; and by the time his fifth NHL season had ended, his career best stood at a mere 45 points. When the Barry Trotz era started in Long Island in 2018-19, Nelson came alive even as the team's offense was downplayed, first with a 53-point pace, then 65, and now – after a blip last season – a career best 67-point scoring rate. Has Nelson officially arrived, such that can we count on him to do this well going forward? No, he overachieved; and once the Trotz era comes to an end, perhaps as early as this offseason, he'll almost assuredly be deemphasized.

Even more so than Terry, Nelson's SH% for 2021-22 jumps off the page, and the result was not only Nelson easily posting a career best in goals, but it being the first time ever he had more goals than assists, and the difference was significant (37 vs. 22). Had Nelson's 21.6% SH% instead been what it had been over his career entering this season, namely 12.2%, his goal total would've been 21 instead of 32. Although it's always possible at least some of those missed shots may have been repackaged as assists, if none did then his scoring rate would've dropped to 49 instead of 67.

What's more, in the history of the NHL there've been just four instances of a center who finished a season with 35+ goals despite not averaging 0.9+ points or 2.4 SOG per game (Nelson's was at 2.38), with it last happening way back in 1992-93. Of the four, two never again had a season of even 60-point production, while the other two – who were age 20 and 21 when they met the criteria – did have subsequent success. Given Nelson's age, not to mention his elevated shooting percentage, his goal total seems all the more unsustainable.

What also can't be ignored is Nelson's offensive zone starting percentage, which had been 45-48% in four of his last five seasons, climbing to 56.4% in 2021-22. Part of that likely had to do with Nelson faring better, making it a chicken and egg situation. But if he doesn't do as well – and from what we saw above he probably won't – chances are his OZ% would drop again. Moreover, the lone season of the last six where his OZ% was higher than that range was in 2020-21, when Nelson had his worst output during the Trotz era. Chances are this number will drop again either in the normal course or due to Nelson coming back to earth.

Nelson's IPPs are also elevated, with his overall IPP having been between 66% and 68% in three of his last four seasons, but 71.1% for 2021-22. His IPP on the PP, despite not being very high at 56.0%, still marked the second best rate of his career, with it being 46-50% in four of his last five seasons. That's a low rate; and one has to figure Nelson's PP time is at risk of drying up, especially under a new coach, as youngsters like Oliver Wahlstrom and Kiefer Bellows are ready and able to take on bigger roles, and even Kyle Palmieri and Zach Parise, who've enjoyed significant past PP success, could regain PP1 time.

Let's also not ignore that the Islanders, despite lofty preseason expectations, failed to make the playoffs. That could mean the end of the Trotz era despite him being under contract for one more season. If that was to occur, it's difficult to look past the fact that Nelson never posted more than even 45 points before Trotz took the helm, whereas Mathieu Barzal, who doesn't even turn 25 until later this month, went from a superb 85 point rookie campaign the season before Trotz was installed, to season scoring paces of 62-72 since then. Barzal likely would thrive upon a return to a more wide open offense, whereas Nelson, who's a strong defensive center, presumably would go back to a role more similar to what he did before Trotz entered the equation. In other words, we can't think of Nelson as the second coming of Sean Couturier, who escaped the middle six to become a top line star, as for a new look Islanders there's no question Barzal would be the focal point.

Nelson morphing from mediocre player to semi-star over the past few seasons has been a nice feel good story. It's likely nearing its end though, not only as Nelson – who'll turn 31 the first month of next season – ages and due to him having unsustainably higher scoring in 2021-22, but also because of the impending exodus of Barry Trotz, with a new coach all but assured to lean heavily on Mathieu Barzal and to have Nelson go back to a middle six role plus also possibly lose his PP1 gig. All things considered, Nelson's 2021-22 was TOO HOT and he gets a rating of 8.75. Now is likely be the time to trade away Nelson in keepers, lest you get stuck with him once his goal scoring comes back to earth, which should happen no matter what, and his role returns to that of a defense first center, which either will occur for 2022-23 if once Barry Trotz is fired, or by no later than 2023-24 because Trotz is under contract for just next season.

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Questions for Mailbag

My monthly mailbag is in a couple of weeks and still has plenty of room for questions. To get questions to me, you can (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, (2) send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.