Ramblings: Leafs, Wild, Oilers Take Series Leads; Bruins Win One; Pavelski Didn’t Disappoint (May 6)

Ian Gooding

2022-05-07

After three games, no team is up 3-0 in a series. Should we be surprised given the way that teams are evenly matched nowadays? That being said, there were some lopsided scores, particularly in the later games.

Bruins 4, Hurricanes 2 (Hurricanes lead series 2-1)

Replacing the struggling Linus Ullmark in net for Game 3, Jeremy Swayman made 25 saves in backstopping the Bruins to their first win of the series on home ice. Swayman was making his first career playoff start, and you'd have to think he'll start Game 4 as well.

The Bruins' Production Line was reunited after being split up partway through the regular season, and it seemed to pay off. Brad Marchand scored a goal and added two power-play assists to lead all Bruins scorers. Marchand had struggled a bit during April, at one point being held without a goal for 11 games and recording just two assists over a nine-game span. Expect the top-line stack to continue, which will be great for Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak, but not so much for other Bruins forwards.

Pyotr Kochetkov also made his first career playoff start in Game 3, stopping 24 of 28 shots in the loss. Kochetkov, the 36th overall pick in the 2019 draft, came to North America after the KHL season ended and had posted some solid AHL numbers upon arrival (15 GP, 2.09 GAA, .921 SV%). He is only 22 years old and is reportedly still learning English, and the playoffs are not something either he or the Canes expected him to experience this season, so we have to cut him some slack if this start was less than ideal. There's a good chance Antti Raanta could be in net for Game 4, but at least the future appears bright for Kochetkov (Dobber Prospects profile).

Scary scene during the second period of this game, as the penalty box attendant needed medical attention after a pane of glass behind him fell (watch here). Hopefully this gentleman is okay. And folks, please don't hammer on the glass when you're at a hockey game. A completely unnecessary incident that delayed the game.

Maple Leafs 5, Lightning 2 (Leafs lead series 2-1)

Jack Campbell had an up-and-down regular season, but he seems to be finding his game at the right time. Campbell stopped 32 of 34 shots he faced, making impressive saves such as the following:

It's worth mentioning that over 10 career playoff games (all with the Leafs), Campbell has a 1.97 GAA and .931 SV%.

Ilya Mikheyev scored two empty-net goals to cement the win. Pierre Engvall assisted on both of those goals and finished the game with three assists total. Mikheyev also finished the game with six shots and five hits.

Wild 5, Blues 1 (Wild lead series 2-1)

Following a hat trick in Game 2, Kirill Kaprizov scored another goal and added an assist in Game 3. That gives him five points, a plus-4, and nine shots over his last two games. The Wild have been bringing the offense overall over those last two games, scoring 11 goals.

Following his near-hat trick in Game 2, Joel Eriksson Ek also scored another goal and added an assist in Game 3. Eriksson Ek also has five points, a plus-5, and eight hits over his last two games.

Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 29 of 30 shots in earning the win. He has allowed just three goals over his last two games. After Game 1's loss (four goals on 31 shots), Cam Talbot seemed like an option for Game 2. However, the Wild did not trade away a second-round pick (first-round if the Wild advance to the conference final) so that Flower could wilt on the bench.

Adding injury to insult for St. Louis, Torey Krug left Game 3 in the first period with a lower-body injury. Craig Berube said that Krug would be re-evaluated tomorrow, which puts his availability for Game 4 in jeopardy. The Blues are already without Nick Leddy and Robert Bortuzzo, so an undermanned defense will not be ideal while they are trailing in the series.

Oilers 8, Kings 2 (Oilers lead series 2-1)

The Edmonton Oilers continue to score, piling up 14 goals over the last two games. The crazy part is that it's not necessarily Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, although they finished Game 3 with two points each.

Evander Kane is en fuego. After a three-point third period in Game 2, Kane followed up with three goals in Game 3. The hat trick goal was with less than a minute left and the outcome already decided, but they all count. Kane was everything you'd want in a multicategory player in Game 3, recording a plus-3 with nine shots and eight hits. That's what you'd call a high-event player.

Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins each scored a pair of goals while adding an assist. Hyman took six shots, while Nugent-Hopkins took five shots. Nuge's two goals were in the span of 81 seconds.

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Evan Bouchard recorded a pair of assists in Game 3, giving him five assists over his last three games. He has also taken nine shots in the series so far.

Even Cody Ceci got in on the action, recording three assists with a plus-4.

Mike Smith was stellar in net again, stopping 44 of 46 shots following a Game 2 shutout. No one is laughing at him right now.

McDavid has two points in each of the three games in this series, so he's more than pulling his weight in playoff pools. Were you expecting a five-point game or something?  

Cal Petersen replaced Jonathan Quick in the Kings' net after Quick allowed four goals on 17 shots. Quick has allowed a combined 10 goals over his last two games, which calculates to two really bad starts. I know Quick has a long history as the Kings' starter, but don't be surprised if it's Petersen starting in Game 4.

In other news, Casey DeSmith is out for the remainder of the playoffs following core muscle surgery. It looks like it'll be more Louis Domingue in this series, as Tristan Jarry doesn't seem ready to return. At least this series is shifting back to Pittsburgh for two games. You're in a good spot if you picked Rangers skaters in your playoff pool.

With the regular season now in the books, I'll take this opportunity over the next few days to look back at my season predictions. Specifically, my selections for player to rebound and player to disappoint. It turns out that I was correct on one but incorrect on the other. Yesterday, I wrote about my correct pick of player to rebound in Frederik Andersen. Today, I'll come clean about the incorrect choice I made in Joe Pavelski as a potential bust.

There were several reasons not to be bullish about Pavelski heading into the season. Pavelski's age (37), somewhat unexpected rebound to a near point-per-game level, and high shooting percentage (18 SH%) could all be cited as reasons for a decline. I had even received feedback during the offseason to move Pavelski off the Top 100 Roto Rankings. (I decided to keep him there, even though I was skeptical about it.)

Even with a lower shooting percentage (12.5 SH%) and a lower PDO (from 1042 to 1013), Pavelski managed to improve on his 2020-21 numbers with a point-per-game pace (81 PTS in 82 GP). He maintained a similar shots-per-game pace, while his goal total only increased by two while playing in 26 more games. The key was increased icetime with one of the top lines in the league with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Each of those three players recorded a minimum of 72 points, while no other Stars managed to crack 50 points.

What you think about Pavelski going forward will depend on when you think his age-related decline will really hit. It was thought to have occurred in 2019-20, when he scored just 31 points in 67 games, his first season in Dallas. Pavelski appeared to need time to adjust to a new system in Dallas, but it has worked out just fine. If you draft him next season, pay attention to the line combinations, as moving off that line could have an adverse impact on his fantasy value.

I will take credit for correctly projecting Connor McDavid for the Art Ross and Auston Matthews for the Rocket Richard. Since numerous other writers forecasted the same in the season predictions, neither is a major surprise. Once the remaining award winners are announced, I will compare the actual winners to my projections.

I have to throw this in at the end. The donut story is way too funny.

Get your DFS picks and game bets in early today, as Saturday's first game (Florida/Washington) starts at 1 pm ET. Look for our DFS articles to appear shortly, if they haven't already.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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