Ramblings: Canes, Bolts, Oilers Advance; Top Picks Meier, Tarasenko (May 14)

Ian Gooding

2022-05-15

In a day jam-packed with Game 7s, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Edmonton all advanced while Boston, Toronto, and Los Angeles will all hit the golf course. Let's run down the three games that were played.

Hurricanes 3, Bruins 2 (Hurricanes win series 4-3)

After being acquired from the Blue Jackets, Max Domi scored two goals in 19 games with the Hurricanes. He finished the regular season cold with just a single point (one of the goals) in his final five games. During the first six games of the series, he had just two assists and was averaging between 8 to 12 minutes per game. Not exactly a player that stood out until Game 7.

In Game 7s, unexpected heroes can emerge. Domi was Carolina's savior in Game 7, scoring a pair of goals and adding an assist with a plus-3 and three shots. He played just 12:55 in this game and has seen almost no power-play time during the playoffs. Yet his deployment with Vincent Trocheck and Teuvo Teravainen at even strength seems favorable when it comes to picking up points.

The Hurricanes will now face the winner of the Rangers/Penguins series, with Game 7 to be played tonight.

Is this a captain simply thanking his teammates for the season, or is there something more to this? Patrice Bergeron's contract is set to expire, so the most significant offseason question for the Bruins is what he decides with his future. A Bergeron loss would have a huge ripple effect on the Bruins from long-time wingers Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak all the way down the lineup because the captain will be so difficult to replace. If Bergeron returns, he definitely has some mileage left, even at age 36.

Lightning 2, Maple Leafs 1 (Lightning win series 4-3)

If you're a diehard Leafs fan waiting for a playoff series win, let alone a Stanley Cup, the wait will last at least one more season. If there's any solace for Leafs fans, it's that they seemed to match the Lightning punch for punch in this series, and they may have even been the better team. These were two evenly-matched teams that went to a Game 7, even though it will seem like another missed opportunity for the Leafs. Even though the Lightning are widely considered to be weary from two Stanley Cup runs, they are still the two-time defending champions and not an ideal matchup for the Leafs. I'm sure you'll be able to find hundreds of opinion pieces about what the Leafs should do next, so I'll leave it there.

This Game 7 also had its unexpected hero in Nick Paul. Acquired from the Senators at the trade deadline, Paul scored both Lightning goals – the first two playoff goals of his career. The second goal can be described as straight-up effort that silenced the Scotiabank Centre crowd just a few minutes after the Leafs tied the game at 1.

The Lightning move on to face the Florida Panthers in an all-Florida matchup – a rematch of their first-round series last season that Tampa won 4 games to 2. Winning that series might be a more arduous task this time, as Brayden Point left this game with a leg injury. Point could not put any weight on his leg as he skated off the ice in the first period. He attempted to give it a go with one shift in the second period, but he was simply in too much pain to continue.

If you ever need to clinch a series, call Andrei Vasilevskiy. He has allowed just one goal in his past six series-clinching games. Yes, shutouts in all of his previous five series-clinching games. In Game 7 he stopped 30 of 31 shots he faced, only allowing a Morgan Rielly goal. Even if the Lightning appear to be on the limp with Point and maybe even Nikita Kucherov, they have the goalie they need to at least challenge for a threepeat.

Speaking of Rielly, he had a solid series with three goals and three assists. None of the Leafs' big guns were absent offense-wise, as all of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares finished with at least six points over the seven games.

Oilers 2, Kings 0 (Oilers win series 4-3)

Connor McDavid… who else? With a goal and an assist in Game 7, McDavid had six multipoint games over this seven-game series. He's once again the playoff scoring leader with 14 points. Yet his biggest point was the insurance marker that gave the Oilers a 2-0 lead.

The Oilers were without a doubt the better team in this game, outshooting the Kings 41-29. Mike Smith wasn't tested as much as Jonathan Quick, but he finished the game with a 29-save shutout. For much of the season, you probably didn't think he was capable of winning a playoff series, but he posted five quality starts in the seven games.

In anticipation of Cal Petersen becoming an NHL starting goalie, have we in fantasy leagues been too hasty to write off Quick? The veteran Kings goalie was outstanding in this game, stopping 39 of 41 shots he faced. Maybe Petersen takes the reins for good next season, but Quick still has one season left on his contract with a slightly higher cap hit ($5.8 million) compared to Petersen ($5.0 million). Four of the seven games were quality starts for Quick.

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With the Kings eliminated, Dustin Brown has officially played his last NHL game. A solid career as the captain of two Stanley Cup-winning teams with a possible jersey retirement in his future.

We are now halfway to a Battle of Alberta in the next round. Edmonton will face Calgary if the Flames can defeat Dallas tonight. One challenge the Oilers will face is the status of Leon Draisaitl, who missed the morning skate and did not appear 100 percent throughout this game despite assisting on Cody Ceci's goal. Draisaitl is dealing with a possible ankle injury.

Continuing my 2021-22 season review from a fantasy perspective, I'll be discussing the best picks that I made in this season's drafts (keeper decisions not included). No Connor McDavids here, as picking him first overall because you think he'll be the top scorer in the league doesn't take a ton of skill. I'm thinking more about players that were lower in the rankings that far surpassed their draft-day value. Not necessarily sleepers, although they could have been. But I think you'll agree by now that these players should have been picked much higher than they were.

This is simply a continuation from yesterday, when I wrote about two more of my top picks and what went right with them. Next week I'll come clean with my worst picks, which should be loads of fun to talk about.

Timo Meier

Unbelievably, Meier had an ADP of just under 150 in Yahoo leagues and was drafted in only 16% of Yahoo leagues. Eventually that was corrected to over 90% of leagues once fantasy teams discovered that Meier was not only having a comeback season, but he was also having a career season. Meier did not lead my own particular fantasy team in goals or assists, but he still turned out a near point-per-game season with 76 points in 77 games along with a career-high 35 goals. Moreover, only Auston Matthews and Alex Ovechkin took more shots than Meier (326), while Ovechkin and J.T. Miller were the only players with more points who also recorded more hits. (Meier finished with one fewer point than Chris Kreider, but with more hits.)

Meier has always been a shooter, but never at the level that he demonstrated during 2021-22. His 4.2 SOG/GP was a full shot higher than his previous career high, a season in which he took 250 shots (2018-19). That shot total enabled the career high in goals without having to rely on luck for any of his advanced stats. Meier was also aided by three minutes of additional icetime per game as well as first unit power-play time.

Now that he's had the kind of season that he's had (#20 rank in both my Yahoo leagues), Meier won't sneak up on anyone in next season's drafts. He won't be drafted among the elite because he is not an elite scorer. But don't wait on him for too long in multicategory leagues.

Vladimir Tarasenko

I was lucky enough to draft Tarasenko on two of my teams. Both times I was able to draft him after pick 100, and in both leagues, he delivered better value than I expected. His thrice-repaired shoulder was a major hurdle in his return to form, enough so that the Seattle Kraken passed on an opportunity to pick him in the expansion draft. The rumors that he had requested a trade and would remain unhappy in St. Louis also didn't help. Yet in this spot I needed a right wing, and he was the player who could deliver the highest ceiling at that position in that spot.

On a Blues team that is low-key deep in scoring, Tarasenko delivered a career-high 82 points. With a sixth career 30+ goal season, Tarasenko proved that his shoulder is now just fine. Not only that, but Tarasenko added some more playmaking to his weaponry with a career-high 48 assists. Tarasenko being paired with Robert Thomas also seemed to help both, as Thomas emerged with a point-per-game breakout season of his own. Tarasenko averaged about half a shot less than he did during his five consecutive 30+ goal seasons, but the added assist total seemed to offset that to some degree. 

The moral of the story? Don't bail on a player just because of an injury. Obviously this won't be the case for every player, but sports science has come a long way in the past few decades. What seemed like a diminishing asset during the offseason now appears revitalized.

Enjoy the two additional Game 7s today! Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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