Ramblings: Panthers Advance; Two More Series Go 7; Top Picks Miller, Kreider (May 14)

Ian Gooding

2022-05-14

The three Game 7s today/tonight might be the most fun you'll have as a hockey fan all season. The exception, of course, might be if you are a fan of one of the six teams involved, where instead you will be on pins and needles all day.

On Friday, you had to settle for three Game 6s, two of them resulting in Game 7s to be played on Sunday. That brings a total of five Game 7s for your weekend. If you haven't been entertained at some point during these playoffs, what about now?

Rangers 5, Penguins 3 (series tied 3-3)

A Chris Kreider point shot with just a minute and a half in regulation gave the Rangers the lead, with an Andrew Copp empty-netter securing the victory and a Game 7 at Madison Square Garden on Sunday. The game-winning goal was definitely a shot that Louis Domingue wanted back.

Both Kreider and Zibanejad scored a pair of goals for the Blueshirts. Zibanejad picked the right time to score his first two goals of the series, while he also added two assists and six shots on goal. Kreider also took six shots on goal.

Igor Shesterkin's struggles in this series have been well-documented, and he looked like he was in trouble again after allowing two first-period goals. However, he finished with a win with 31 saves on 34 shots. Shesterkin has allowed at least three goals in five of the six games in this series, so he hasn't been able to bail out the Rangers the same way he had in the regular season. The cherry on top for the Hart Trophy finalist in Game 6 was this well-earned assist on Kreider's goal.

Sidney Crosby missed this game with a concussion, which meant that Evgeni Malkin moved up to the top line with Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust. Crosby seems questionable at best for Game 7.

Domingue has allowed at least four goals in four of the five games that he has started in this series. Tristan Jarry has been skating, so could we see him start the do-or-die Game 7? Jarry last played a month ago, so my money is still on Domingue starting Game 7. The injuries and the recent momentum might be too much to overcome for the Pens in Game 7, but anything can happen.

Panthers 4, Capitals 3 (Panthers win series 4-2)

What can you say about Carter Verhaeghe during these playoffs? There was some concern that he wouldn't be able to play in this game after he missed the morning skate. Yet not only did he suit up, but he also scored the overtime winner to advance the Panthers to the second round for the first time since 1996.

Verhaeghe also chipped in an assist on Claude Giroux's goal, giving him 12 points (6 G, 6 A) over the six-game series. He is in a tie with Connor McDavid for the playoff lead in points. If the Panthers advance deep into the playoffs, many winning playoff pools might include Verhaeghe. Perhaps he flies under the radar with Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau the main attractions on the Florida roster, yet Verhaeghe has been on a 60-point full-season pace over his two seasons for the Panthers.

Giroux finished the game with a goal and two assists. He has goals in back-to-back games.

To make room for Verhaeghe, Anthony Duclair was a healthy scratch for this game. Duclair has no goals and two assists with just one shot over his five playoff games.

T.J. Oshie scored a power-play goal with just over a minute left in regulation and the goalie pulled to send this game to overtime. Oshie did his part to try to stave off elimination, taking seven shots and recording six hits.

The Panthers now await the winner of the Toronto/Tampa Bay series in their Game 7 showdown.

Stars 4, Flames 2 (series tied 3-3)

If Dallas can pull off the series upset, I will give props in advance to game picks writer Vlad Zorila. He was the only Dobber writer on the panel with the courage to pick the Stars in this series, and he did so in seven games. Guys like me got sucked into picking Calgary in 5 after their outstanding regular season. Dallas has shown more resilience than perhaps we thought they were capable of.

Jake Oettinger, again. The Stars goalie made 36 saves, a total equaled by his counterpart Jacob Markstrom in this game. Oettinger has allowed more than two goals just once in this six-game series, which gives him six green checkmarks for quality starts on Frozen Tools. He's throwing cold water on the Flames in your playoff pool.

Here's Markstrom's best save of the game, which looked like a sure power-play goal for Dallas.

Johnny Gaudreau might be an easy target for why the Flames haven't been able to close out this series. After the Stars' empty-net goal, Gaudreau looked particularly frustrated among Flames on the bench. Yet he did pick up an assist in this one, giving him six points over six games.

Good news for Canucks fans: "Bruce There It Is" will be returning to Vancouver next season. It doesn't quite sound like Boudreau and new Canucks management are all on the same page regarding the direction of the team. Yet Boudreau not returning would have been a PR disaster, not to mention that it would have placed undue pressure on a new coach to demonstrate quickly that he would be a better option. Given the one-year contract status, Boudreau will probably be on a short leash should the Canucks perform below expectations. But coaching in the NHL is hardly a secure job anyway.

Fantasy-wise, there's no change to anyone's value, as Canucks forwards who thrived under BB should continue to do so. Unless, of course, his focus at the direction of management shifts to something more defensively-oriented.

The Ted Lindsay Award finalists were announced on Friday. In the process, Elliotte Friedman might have broken some huge trade news. I predict Tyler Myers and Oliver Ekman-Larsson for Connor McDavid. Two pretty good defenseman who will help the Oilers blueline… what says you?

Continuing my 2021-22 season review from a fantasy perspective, I'll be discussing the best picks that I made in this season's drafts today and tomorrow (keeper decisions not included). No Connor McDavids here, as picking him first overall because you think he'll be the top scorer in the league doesn't take a ton of skill. I'm thinking more about players that were lower in the rankings that far surpassed their draft-day value. Not necessarily sleepers, although they could have been. But I think you'll agree by now that these players should have been picked much higher than they were. Two players today, and two more tomorrow.

From last week, my top three waiver-wire pickups of the season. Not necessarily the three best, but my three best. Same idea below. Next week I'll have my worst picks, which should be loads of fun to relive.

J.T. Miller

Miller's ADP in Yahoo was 52, while I was able to pick him at 60 (at the end of the 5th round, with the first four rounds keeper selections). Miller outperformed that expectation, leading this particular fantasy team in assists (67), points (99), and power-play points (38). Further adding to his value, Miller had more hits (172) than any player in the top 50 in scoring. That type of multicategory coverage was why he was ranked #11 in both of my Yahoo leagues. His 1.24 PTS/GP is also by far a career best for him, having reached the point-per-game mark only once before.

Miller's underlying metrics have remained consistent, so there's no reason to assume a major downturn aside from the fact that reaching 100 points is not an easy accomplishment. Miller's numbers since being traded to Vancouver have increased mainly because he is receiving more icetime. With the Rangers and Lightning, Miller had generally ranged between 14 to 17 minutes as a full-time player. However, he has averaged at least 20 minutes per game in his three seasons with Vancouver. As a result, his shot total has increased by a shot per game (2.6 SOG/GP in 2021-22) while he was a sub-2.0 SOG/GP player with his previous two teams.

I will defer making any projections for Miller until we know where he will be playing next season. Miller will be on the final year of his contract, and he could be traded if he and new Canucks management cannot agree on an extension. Miller was the Canucks' most valuable skater last season, so he's not a player the Canucks can risk losing for nothing in free agency. A return for Miller could set up the Canucks very well, as they also need to figure out a way to replenish a thin prospect base. Miller may not have as prominent a role on another team as he has with the Canucks, which is something else to consider.

Chris Kreider

If you drafted Kreider at around his 152 ADP in Yahoo, you committed highway robbery on your league. The only other 50-goal scorers (Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Alex Ovechkin) were drafted well ahead of Kreider – perhaps all even in the first round of 12-team league drafts. Kreider's 26 power-play goals also led the league, while Ovechkin and the aforementioned Miller were the only players with more points who also recorded more hits.

To say Kreider's 50-goal campaign was unexpected would be an understatement. He scored 20 goals in 50 games last season, which isn't bad but is only a 33-goal pace over a full season. Kreider's goal total increased simply because his shot total did too, as he averaged over a shot per game more in 2021-22 (3.2 SOG/GP) over 2020-21 (2.0 SOG/GP). He actually averaged less power-play time per game in his 50-goal season than the previous one, but he averaged a slightly higher percentage of his team's power-play minutes. The Rangers' 25.2 PP% (4th in the NHL) was a major reason as well.

I've pointed this out before, but Kreider led the league in tip-in goals (17). No other player scored more than nine. Last season he scored six, which was tied for third. Being a consistent net-front presence has helped his goal total, as has playing lots of even-strength and power-play minutes with Mika Zibanejad. No player may have been aided more by the coaching change to Gerard Gallant than Kreider. That's a good sign for his numbers going forward, although scoring 50 goals again will be a major challenge for a player who had never even previously scored 30. Kreider does have six previous 20-goal seasons to his credit, though.

Enjoy the tripleheader of Game 7s today! Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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