Ramblings – Some Thoughts on the End of Round 1… (May 16)

Dobber

2022-05-16

On May 15 each year (i.e. yesterday), those with annual subscriptions – either Silver, Gold or Platinum – have their payments processed. I hope this didn't startle too many of you. I gave the heads up here last week and there is also an email sent out a few days prior. The items for 2022-23 are now in the shop available for pre-sale. The first item that will be released is the Fantasy Prospects Report, which will come out the afternoon of June 14.

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I felt that the Leafs were the better team in pretty much every game of the series, with the exception of about three different first periods. And while Jack Campbell was fine in Game 6 and great in Game 7, I do think Kyle Dubas' failure to upgrade goaltending over the past year was the Achilles heel in Games 2 and 4. The rest of the roster was great – probably Top 3 in the entire league this season. I hope, for the organization's sake, that they don't tear things apart. Address goaltending, upgrade the defense. If that costs a key forward, so be it. But try to do it without costing either of the Big 2. In the end, goaltending didn't save them in Games 2 or 4, and Alex Kerfoot cost them Game 6. That weird interference call cost them Game 7. Sure, it's interference but can you remember a play like this getting called at such a critical time?

Check it out if you didn't see it:

What was different in Toronto's loss this year as opposed to prior years, to me was their poise. Even when they were down 3-0, they played as if everything was under control. The passing was never panicky. Perhaps they were too relaxed. But Tampa was also poised, and that comes from winning two Cups. They've been there before and know how to shut it down when they need to. The Tampa – Florida series is going to be something. The Panthers have Toronto's offense, but they also have an experienced goaltender. But do you want to bet against the Lightning?

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It will be the ninth time in 26 years that the defending Stanley Cup Champions have a series against the President's Trophy winner. In those eight prior series, the Cup Champs have won four times and the President's Trophy winners won four times.

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I think Ilya Mikheyev makes for a sneaky buy-low in keeper leagues. He's signing somewhere else in the summer, since the Leafs can't afford to keep him. And wherever he signs, he'll see more ice time. A healthy season will see some surprising numbers. "Healthy" being the key term here.

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Nick Paul has 18 points in 28 games since joining Tampa Bay. As a big forward at 6-3, his Breakout Threshold is 400 career games. He's at 248 (regular season), so next season would be considered early. However, he got to the NHL late and is now 27. Depending on where he signs, I wonder if he could have a breakout next season? If he stays with Tampa, it's certainly possible. Not the highest upside, but he could score 20 goals, 45 points.

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The Kings were also eliminated and Dustin Brown has played his last NHL game, as Ian touched upon yesterday. To me, the Kings are on the tail-end of a rebuild and made the playoffs a year ahead of schedule. That obviously bodes well for the rebuild, and I think what pushed them over the top were three things: 1. The signing of Philip Danault 2. The trade for Viktor Arvidsson 3. The emergence of Trevor Moore. So yes, that entire line. What a bonus!

Jonathan Quick has one more year left on his contract at $5.8M. Do they buy him out and go after Darcy Kuemper? Joonas Korpisalo? The market on UFA goaltenders is slim this year – MA Fleury, Jack Campbell and Thomas Greiss are the other notables. Do they trust Cal Petersen to bounce back? Quick was hot and cold in the playoffs, with four Quality Starts, but it may have been enough to prevent getting bought out after he had such a horrendous second half to the season.

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Connor McDavid's 14 points tied the highest opening-round point total in 29 years. Mario Lemieux had 17 in 1992 and The Great One had 15 in 1987. For what it's worth, Sidney Crosby also had a 14-point opening round back in 2010.

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Crosby, Rickard Rakell and Tristan Jarry were each back in the Pittsburgh lineup for Sunday's Game 7. But it was too late. The Rangers became the first team in playoff history to have three straight comeback wins in elimination games within the same series.

But the win was under a cloud of controversy. Look at Marcus Pettersson's helmet get pulled off on purpose. And the NHL's rule about that requires Pettersson to get off the ice. So he did. And the Rangers scored:

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Jarry attended the postgame press conference with an ice bag taped around his right foot. So he played hurt.

It's hard to say what this Pittsburgh team will look like next season. Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Casey DeSmith and Evan Rodrigues are each UFAs. Malkin makes $9.5M and even at 35 you have to think he's going to match that on the open market. Then again, he hinted that he has enough money, so perhaps he takes a discount and stays. Rust at $3.5M has been a steal, so you know he's getting a raise. Somewhere. Letang makes $7.25M and at 35 he's still probably coming close to that number, depending on term. The Penguins pay four other defensemen over $4M, so keeping Letang will be tough.

Prediction: I can see Malkin and Rodrigues staying, while the other three go.

Rodrigues had a great postseason with five points in seven games.

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Mika Zibanejad had four points in five games to start the series, seven points in two games to finish it.

The Ranger acquired Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano near the trade deadline and both continue to pay off. Copp has seven points in the seven games while Vatrano has five.

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It was the Jake Oettinger show in Calgary in the final Game 7 of the first round. The Flames wanted this. They wanted it more than any team in that first round. Their complete and utter domination of the Dallas Stars in terms of possession, scoring chances and control in the offensive zone was something to behold. At one point it was 43-12 in shots (after regulation it was 52-23 and it ended at 63-28). But Oettinger was crazy-good. After seeing that display, I think he's going to be more than merely a 'star' goaltender.

But in the end, Johnny Hockey ended things in overtime. The Battle of Alberta is a go!

Roope Hintz was a surprise scratch for the game. Denis Gurianov drew back in. Gurianov has had a very disappointing season, taking a step back after two promising campaigns. He saw the lowest ice time on the Stars.

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See you next Monday.

2 Comments

  1. James 2022-05-16 at 01:38

    Pettersson was not required to leave the ice surface. A player is allowed a reasonable amount of time to leave tbe ice or put his helmet back on. If engaged in the play, the rule allows a player to finish the play. He also rode Laff into the back of the net which mayyyyy be interference….just sayin….

    • Dobber 2022-05-16 at 12:56

      That is true. No idea why he didn’t grab his helmet and put it back on.

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