Top 10 Surprise Players Under 30
Tom Collins
2022-05-16
Someone once said that “Sometimes what you’re looking for comes when you’re not looking at all.” For fantasy hockey, that expression would probably more like “Sometimes what you’re looking for comes from where you’re not looking at all.”
This basically means that you can always find gems at the draft, through trades and on the waiver wire. Each NHL season gives us plenty of surprise players, but with goal scoring up this season, it seems as if there are more than ever before.
But first, I would like to apologize in advance for this column. There are a lot of excellent names that were left off this list. I already broke the top-surprising players into those over the age of 30 (last week) and those under 30 (this week). I could have made a top-30 list, and I still would have missed some.
I mean, J.T. Miller posted 99 points, smashing his previous career high by 27 points, and he’s not here. Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk both hit 100-plus points, while linemate Elias Lindholm had 82 points in 82 games, and none of them cracked the top 10. Kirill Kaprizov and Jonathan Huberdeau had monster seasons, but it wasn’t enough. Underrated player Damon Severson took over the Devils’ power play and finished with 46 points, but nope, he’s not here either.
This was one of those lists where if you gave me two more days, I’d probably have a different top 10. A week from now, maybe another completely different list of 10 players. That’s just how many great seasons there nobody saw coming. You could convince yourself that one player deserves it over another, and then change your mind depending on the next tweet you read.
This was without a doubt, one of the toughest lists I’ve ever had to rank.
Almost every fantasy GM had given up on Gostisbehere, even though last year he had a 40-point pace. Going to Arizona didn’t seem like it would help him rebound, as the squad was expected to have trouble scoring, have a putrid power play and Jakub Chychrun would be the main defenseman on the top power-play unit. Although Arizona was the lowest-scoring team in the league and had the third-worst power-play, Gostisbehere did start the season on the top unit. He played all 82 games and finished with 51 points and 19 power-play points. He also finished with a career high in hits and tied a career high in blocked shots.
9. Devon Toews
I’ve talked about this a lot over the years, but when you are looking for potential surprise players before the season begins, you are looking for a player that is getting plenty of opportunities. And that’s exactly what happened once Toews was dealt from the Islanders to the Avalanche for two second-round picks. His overall numbers may not seem as high as others, but he missed 16 games due to injury. He had 57 points in 66 games, which would put him on pace for 71 over 82 games. That’s pretty impressive considering he doesn’t get much power-play time with Cale Makar on the team. Toews also set a career high in plus/minus with 52 (which led all dmen), shots (2.4 per game) and power-play points (12, double his previous high of six) while averaging 25:22 per night.
8. Jesper Bratt
Bratt is one of those rare players whose numbers have consistently been better almost every season, with 2019-20 being the line exception. He finished with 26 goals and 73 points in 76 games, all career highs. He averaged 2.6 shots per game, also the best of his career. He also had a career high 18 power-play points. While some of that success came from playing with Jack Hughes, he also had success alongside Dawson Mercer, Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha and almost anyone else the Devils lined him up alongside.
In last week’s column, I talked about how Jacob Markstrom was near the bottom of most draft lists as he was the 27th goalie taken on average in Yahoo pools. Well, Jarry was almost as low, selected on average in the 10th round, the 22nd goalie taken off the board and somehow behind Kevin Lankinen. Jarry finished with a record of 34-18-6 with four shutouts. Among goalies with a minimum of 20 starts, Jarry finished top 10 in wins, saves, save percentage, goals against average and shutouts.
6. Jacob Trouba
Trouba may have had the most underrated fantasy season this year, especially in leagues that count any peripherals. Maybe that underratedness comes from all the great stories that came out of New York this year (Chris Kreider‘s 50 goals, Artemi Panarin‘s quest for 100 points, Igor Shesterkin‘s push for the Vezina, Adam Fox putting up 74 points, etc.). Not only did Trouba notch 11 goals and 39 points, but he had 88 PIM, 204 shots, 207 hits and 177 blocked shots. He is the only player in the league to have 150 blocked shots and 200 hits. I’m in a Yahoo league that counts goals, assists, plus/minus, PIM, power-play points, faceoff wins, hits and blocked shots. Trouba was so dominant in peripheral categories that he finished as the 19th-ranked player and fifth-ranked defenseman.
5. Jeff Skinner
Truthfully, I’m shocked that Skinner hasn’t had his age-30 season yet (he turns 30 years old today, so happy birthday Jeff!). It feels as if he’s been in the league for at least 15 years. It looked like he was pretty much done after signing that massive contract a few years ago, as he put up 37 points in 112 games (an 82-game pace of 27 points) over the last two seasons. This year, he surprised everyone by potting 33 goals and 63 points. He took 3.3 shots per game and had 11 power-play points. Still not worth the $9 million a year for the next five years, but he’s back to being fantasy relevant.
While many Blues were surprising this year, Barbashev was probably the least fantasy relevant of them going into the season. With a previous career high of 26 points, the 26-year-old would not have been on the radar except in the deepest of leagues. However, he was given an opportunity at the start of the season in a top-six role, and he excelled. He finished with 60 points in 81 games, but was also relevant in leagues with peripherals, finishing with 40 PIM and 160 hits. He also had nine power-play points after coming into the season with only one in his career.
3. Ryan Hartman
His point total may not be as high on this list as many others, but there’s no doubt about his shocking season. The 27-year-old has never put up more than 31 points in a season (his highest 82-game pace was 35), has only once been above two shots a game (back in his rookie campaign in 2016-17 with the Hawks), only once been above a plus-four (a plus-13 in that rookie season) and has never potted 20 goals in a season. A year ago, he had career highs in ice time at 15:04 and power-play time on ice of 1:09. So, he predictably destroyed all of those numbers this season. He finished with 34 goals, 65 points, plus-31, 239 shots (2.9 shots per game), 18:11 TOI and 2:21 PPTOI. He also had career highs in PIM (95) and power-play points (eight). I guess that’s what happens when you get moved to the top line with Kirill Kaprizov.
Marchment didn’t play in as many games as many others thanks to various ailments, but he made fantasy general managers giddy every time he was in the lineup. Despite averaging 14:07 of ice time per night, he finished with 47 points in 54 games. That’s a 71-point pace over 82 games. Even better, he finished with a plus-29, 53 PIM, 2.2 shots per game and 2.11 hits per game. That bodes well for him staying fantasy relevant for peripheral fantasy leagues next season, even if his offense dries up.
1. Timo Meier
I must admit I am a little biased with this one, as I traded for Meier in a dynasty league a few years back. While parts were involved, the main aspect was Taylor Hall for Meier and a first. This was back when Hall was still with the Devils, just a year after his Hart trophy. But I was hopeful that Meier could be the next great power forward. It took a couple of years, but he finally arrived this year. He finished with 35 goals and 76 points in 77 games. He also had 54 PIM, 326 shots (an average of 4.2 shots per game), 162 hits and 18 power-play points. He’s still only 25 years old, and according to the 400-game theory (basically, players of a certain size take 400 games to hit their breakout threshold), he should be just hitting his prime.