Ramblings: Postseason Injury News on Dumba, Doughty, Arvidsson, and More; Looking Ahead to 2022-23 – May 17

Michael Clifford

2022-05-17

As is the case each playoffs after teams are eliminated, we get a lot of information about injuries guys were playing through. Some are more serious than others, but there are always players that have been dealing with some nagging issue, and it's our chance to find out. Let's go through some of the notable ones.

Minnesota defenceman Matt Dumba played with something that is reminiscent (but not the same) of Patrice Bergeron years ago:

I'm not going to worry about the timeline of when this happened and when he could have been healthy. He only took three weeks off and was back for playoffs. Man, oh man.

Next, why Viktor Arvidsson was not a factor in the playoffs:

Anyone that has done the same can sympathize. Lisa Dillman would go on to say his timeline is 3-5 months, so it seems there's a reasonable chance of being ready for the start of the regular season.

While we're talking about the Kings:

That he might have given it a try in a month's time seems to indicate he'll be fine for training camp. Of course, we'll await official word from the team, or him, at some point in the offseason.

Brad Marchand was not immune to injury:

He will be having surgery on "something" though let's hope it's not major and he'll be back for training camp.

Staying with Boston, Matt Grzelcyk is also injured:

Being healthy for the start of next year is big for Grzelcyk, who is one of the better puck movers the team has on the blue line.

Vegas didn't get to the playoffs and part of it was injuries to Mark Stone. We got some clarity on this:

That he should be ready for camp is a real good sign. Back injuries are always tricky, though.

Those were the big injuries I saw mentioned yesterday. With eight teams left and a few more cleanout days to come as it is, there will be more to come.

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Vegas was all over the news on Monday as the Golden Knights fired coach Pete DeBoer. Dobber's analysis on that impact can be found here.

Not much to add to what Dobber said until we see who the replacement is. Whoever it is, they need to turn this power play around. In the three years under DeBoer, Vegas was 18th in goals/60 minutes at 5-on-5, which seems impossible with all the top-end talent they have. That average was dragged down by an injury-plagued 2021-22, but this team should perennially be in the top-10. Everything else should work itself out.

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Minnesota made an ELC signing:

A reminder that because of the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyouts, the team is losing $12.7M off the cap in 2022-23, and $14.7M in each of the two seasons after. They have roughly $7M in cap space but if they re-sign Kevin Fiala, that'll probably eat up almost all of it. If they don't, they lose arguably their best offensive player they have outside of Kirill Kaprizov. The next few seasons are going to be fascinating because guys like Wallstedt, Rossi, Boldy, and more are going to need to be near-stars for this team to come anywhere near contention.

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We had a wild weekend of hockey with five Games 7 on Saturday and Sunday. Depending on your allegiance, it was either a great weekend or a not-great weekend, though as a neutral fan, it was just a lot of fun. Let's take some time to go over the five teams bounced in those five games, the work they have to do this offseason, and a way-too-early outlook at the fantasy outlook for 2022-23. Let's start in the West. Cap data from Cap Friendly and player data from Natural Stat Trick and our Frozen Tools.

Los Angeles

Of all teams to lose their Game 7, Los Angeles has the most to look forward to, at least long-term. Yes, they have a core in Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, and Jonathan Quick that is aging. But Quick's contract has one year left and Kopitar has two. Doughty has several years remaining, but he also saw a rebound this year that could – could! – mean he'll still be worth a decent chunk of his $11M AAV for the next few seasons. Outside of them, there are middle-of-the-roster guys like Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson, and Matt Roy that all have at least a couple of years left. Trevor Moore has a year left and Alex Iafallo has three. They do have some restricted free agents needing a new deal, like Adrian Kempe (that'll be interesting), Gabe Vilardi, and Mikey Anderson. But they're all decent-to-good pieces to have to re-sign anyway. All that doesn't even include the impact their young guys like Arthur Kaliyev, Quinton Byfield, Sean Durzi, and Jordan Spence made throughout the year. Then there are more prospects to come, particularly on the blue line with Brandt Clarke (especially) and Helge Grans. All that is to say, despite a few hefty, aging contracts, this team seems to be in a good place both in the short-term and the long-term.

What makes this team exciting isn't just the young players, great second liners, and reliable veterans. It's the fact that they seem to be playing an entirely new brand of hockey, as compared to the previous 5-ish years. From 2018-21, Los Angeles was in the bottom-5 of the league in expected goals at 5-on-5 and that led to bottom-3 scoring. This season, the Kings were in the top-5 of the league in the same regard, but a league-worst 7% shooting had them 24th in scoring. It was an improvement in goals despite the worst conversion rate in hockey. If there is a rebound from Arvidsson and growth from Kaliyev, with good puck moving from the blue line, we could see a big scoring jump from this team next year.

The problem is a lot of people seem to have similar sentiments, in that the Kings are on the cusp of becoming a regular playoff team and/or contender. We will see if it inflates ADPs in September, but the skaters of this team won't be the weakness in 2022-23, and the West still doesn't look very strong outside the top couple teams. My early pick for a sneaky late-round-ish grab would be Kaliyev. He could take the Mika Zibanejad role in the middle of the power play. We'll find out in five months.

Dallas

This is a team that is caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Without a doubt, there are some young, er, stars to get excited about. We have Miro Heiskanen, who'll probably be a perennial Norris contender in very short order, and Jake Oettinger, who has looked every bit the goalie of the future this season. Roope Hintz will only be 26 years old in 2022-23 while Jason Robertson's second season might find him top-10 in MVP voting. It seems they have four core pieces at three positions that should be very good for at least another half-decade. It's a very good start.

On the downside, that's about all they have. Ty Dellandrea and Thomas Harley are their best chances at prospects making an impact, and that's about where it ends: Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin both looked very ineffective all season long and they're going to tie up nearly $20M in cap space for three more years; Radek Faksa had an awful season and they need him to bounce back in his checking role; Denis Gurianov doesn't seem to have the trust of the coaching staff and he'll be 25 years old; John Klingberg is on his way out the door; Esa Lindell's offensive ineptitude is proving not enough to make up for his defensive prowess. There are several issues here and though they have around $18M in cap space, Robertson, Oettinger, and Gurianov are all RFAs and need new deals. That'll eat up most of that space, not leaving them with much for free agency. With few impact prospects (if any), it's the trade market, or running it back with largely the same roster.

Dallas struggled to score outside the top line in 2021-22 and it doesn't seem as if things will improve in 2022-23. They might be able to have a similar season, scoring-wise, but that leaves them bereft of fantasy options outside the guys who were valuable this season. Seguin and Gurianov need to really step up for this team to have some secondary scoring next season.  

Toronto

Of all the Toronto series losses in recent memory, this one against Tampa Bay was the closest. The teams were neck-and-neck in expected goal share at 5-on-5 in their series, the goaltending was about even, and they were separated by one goal over seven games. This was a great team that ran into another great team, and such is life. The Big Five in Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly are all likely to return, and they have non-core guys like Alex Kerfoot, David Kampf, Michael Bunting, Jake Muzzin, T.J. Brodie, and Justin Holl under contract for at least one more year. They have nearly $8M in cap space, but they also have Ondrej Kase, Pierre Engvall, Rasmus Sandin, and Timothy Liljegren as RFAs. Assuming at least three of those guys come back, it likely means Jack Campbell and Ilya Mikheyev, both UFAs, are gone. Those UFAs might be big losses as Campbell showed well when he wasn't injured and Mikheyev was the team's most effective forward outside their Big Four. They need guys like Nick Robertson and Rodion Amirov to really challenge for roster spots next year.

All that is to say we should expect another offensive powerhouse in 2022-23. Outside of Mikheyev, almost all the important pieces should be back, and the Leafs were one of the top teams in the league in most regards. Goaltending is the big issue, and we'll see how they fill it, but there is a bevy of fantasy goodness here and that will be reflected in ADPs. They could make a splash in the trade market, but we'll see what they decide to do in the next few months. There is no reason to expect a significant drop off here. A full season from Liljegren could see him crack 40 points even without top PP minutes; I think his surge this year was real and portends great things moving forward.

Pittsburgh

This is one of two teams that is going to have big UFA decisions to make. All of the following are set to hit free agency: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Evan Rodrigues, and Casey DeSmith. They have $28M in cap space, but just signing Malkin, Letang, and Rust will probably chew up $20M-$25M, depending on length of contracts and all that. This is to say, the Penguins could see a big hit to their depth and, like Dallas, there aren't a bevy of high-end prospects beating down the door for roster spots. Pittsburgh has usually been able to replenish their depth over the last decade-ish, and that's what has kept them perennially in contention, but new ownership/management is a wrinkle in all this.

Too much here hinges on what happens with their top-end UFAs so speculating further seems futile. Their Big Three, if they return, will all be 35+, and the bus eventually has to run out of gas. This was a team that was just outside of the top-10 in scoring and there's no certainty they'll improve in 2022-23 given the roster shuffle that could happen. Again, too many moving parts to speculate for now, but they need some fancy roster management this summer.

Boston

The other team with big UFA decisions is Boston, and particularly Patrice Bergeron. To be clear, Bergeron was still an elite player this year and he did play more games (73) this season than in any of his prior three 82-game seasons. But he is getting close to 1400 games played, including playoffs, and sometimes guys just want to leave the game on their own terms. We'll see what happens.

That is a big decision because, obviously, the centre position was a glaring issue all year long. This was a team that went into the postseason with Erik Haula as their 2C, and no offense to Haula, but he's not a 2C on a contender. The other problem with Bergeron is they have little cap space – under $3M with Jakub Zboril re-signing on Monday – so they need to move money out if he wants to re-sign (that feels like Jake Debrusk's cue). That will limit what they can do this summer outside of trades or prospects taking roster spots. This was a middle-of-the-league team by goals for and losing Bergeron will not help. Maybe Fabian Lysell makes the jump but he's not a centre, their position of greatest need. This will be an interesting summer.

We should note that when David Pastrnak isn't playing with Marchand/Bergeron, the team scores nearly one fewer goal per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. A lot of the outlook of this team is adequately filling out their pivot positions, and we'll see how that goes this summer.

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