Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 –In an eight team league where forward positions don't matter, and categories counted are G, A, SOG, HIT, and PPPts, and 18 forwards are rostered by each team, how should these five players be ranked: Pavel Buchnevich, Roope Hintz, Patrik Laine, Josh Norris, and Brayden Point?

I'm sure the temptation of many will be to put Buchnevich last among this group of players who are more widely known or highly touted. But here's an interesting tidbit – Buchnevich is one of just two players (Tyler Bertuzzi being the other) who's played at least one game in six NHL seasons and seen both his points per game and SOG per game rates rise every single season. As surprising as it may sound, he's also the only one of the above group who bested the point per game mark for 2022-23. Still, he's already 27 years old and plays for a team which found significant success this season in rolling with three scoring lines, whereas each of these other four is seemingly locked into the top six and PP1. The good news is Buchnevich will likely continue to be able to play alongside talented forwards, including, even if not part of PP1, on the man advantage; but on the flip side, when he's getting barely 18:00 per game, picturing him doing better than he did this season is indeed difficult. Still, he's yet to not make strides from one season to the next, and he has natural room to continue to be able to do so, making it difficult to count him out.

Hintz was covered in a recent Goldipucks column, where I noted his stats seems less great this season than they are because of how dreadful he was out of the gate, with a measly one point in his first ten games. Hintz also is a PP dynamo, and Tyler Seguin's subpar play has made it easy for the Stars to anoint Hintz the #1 pivot in Dallas.

Laine rebounded nicely to put up his best goals per game rate since he was a teen, and this despite having nothing even remotely close to a #1 center on his team. Laine is an RFA, so he will be in Columbus either long term if he signs a lengthy deal, or for at least a couple more seasons until he can become a UFA. He's got arguably the highest ceiling but at the same time the lowest floor.

Point should be a lot better than he is given his team (Tampa Bay) and most frequent linemate (Nikita Kucherov); however, when it comes down to it he just hasn't – at least not in the regular season – factored into the scoring enough to likely fulfill lofty expectations that accompanied him after his monster 2018-19 and that then get reignited on what seems like an annual basis after he does great in the playoffs yet again. Point's IPP overall has been in the range of 65.6% to 69.4%, with the latter being his mark this season and a career high. Never once has he hit the 70% mark that I usually like to see before I declare that a player is going to be a truly impactful scorer. Still, the fact that he's stapled to Nikita Kucherov and unquestionably has talent on his own makes him probably have highest floor.

Norris has played the fewest games of the group by far and his goals, both overall and on the PP, as a center with this few games of experience puts him in a class with the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Steven Stamkos. He has star written all over him, although there is always a risk of someone like him falling short of expectations, especially with Tim Stutzle also a center who posted 31 points in his final 27 games and could usurp the top line pivot job.

Based on their upside reward, I'd rank them in this order: Laine, Point, Norris, Hintz, Buchnevich, while on downside risk (i.e., least risky first) I'd put them as: Point, Hintz, Buchnevich, Norris, Laine. Factoring in the league's categories I'd put them Point, Hintz, Norris, Buchnevich, Laine. So in all, I'll say Point, followed very closely by Hintz, then Buchnevich and Norris a notch below, and Laine bringing up the rear.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team, H2H (most cats wins) league starting 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1UTIL, 2G and with 4 Bench spots, plus categories of G, A, PPPts, SHP, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, SV, GAA, SV%, which five of the following players should be kept: J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad, Timo Meier, Moritz Seider, Kris Letang, Igor Shesterkin, Juuse Saros, Ilya Sorokin?

This team has, as keeper options, two – arguably three now that Barry Trotz has been fired – of the league's best goalies. Although goalies account for 15% of team's line-up, their categories are worth 33%. As such, with five total keepers, it seems keeping one is mathematically correct, whereas, two could be overkill and zero a bit risky. But would two in fact be overkill? Given the parameters, a d-man "should" be kept, as they comprise 36% of an active line-up. Still, although Seider holds a lot of promise and Letang is great in these categories and has remained healthy of late, I worry Detroit won't be good enough soon enough and Letang, at 35, is on borrowed time. In truth, they might not be of more value to a team than two of Shesterkin, Sorokin, and Saros.

Shesterkin would be a surefire keep, as he's best across the board. And now that Barry "goalie timeshare" Trotz is gone, Ilya Sorokin's value skyrockets. I'd put Saros on the block with Letang or Seider, to see if a top tier d-man – like Victor Hedman or John Carlson – could be obtained. What I fear though is other teams will be smart enough to know it would not be realistic for this team to keep all three of Shesterkin, Saros, and Sorokin, so they'll play hardball if this team tries to trade any of the three. That, if anything, makes me even more inclined to keep two, as they'll help more by staying on the team than they would in terms of what they'd likely fetch in trade.

Shesterkin and Sorokin are kept as two goalies. If Saros, plus one of Seider and Letang does not get the team a top tier d-man, then I wouldn't be too unhappy, as all three of the forwards that can be retained are superb in this league setup. Assuming no trade is made, I'm keeping Sheskerkin as well as Sorokin, plus Miller, Zibanejad and Meier.

Yes, it'd hurt not to go into the season with a defenseman; however, in a keep five league they'll be available to draft. If one is obtained via trade, however, the forward I'd opt not to keep is Zibanejad. Yes, Miller playing so far and above his usual output and as he nears his 2023 UFA status sends off alarm bells, but his shooting percentage is reasonable and his IPPs are not too far above his norms. Plus, Zibanejad seems to have settled into a point per game player only and is a notch below Miller in the multi-cat areas, making it so even if Miller comes back to earth he still likely would be valued above Zibs. In Meier's case, though he cooled as the season wore on, he is a stud in this league plus he plays wing, a less deep category than Zibanejad's center position.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team, H2H Cats league with skater categories of G, A, PPPts, +/-, SOG, GWG, and PIM, a GM is planning to keep Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, and Nikita Kucherov and is torn on who the fourth – and final – keeper should be: Kyle Connor, Matthew Tkachuk, or Roman Josi. Who makes the most sense?

Let's get out of the way that I agree with the three envisioned keepers. Makar is a keep in any league, any format, Kucherov showed as the season was ending that he's fully back to form, and Rantanen is a 100-point-floor player who fits this league very well.

Looking first at Josi, what we saw from him this season was downright superb, and made it two of the last three campaigns that he's been a great fantasy asset. But sandwiched in between was a season of 56-point scoring pace, and then there were the five immediately prior ones of 56- to 62-point scoring paces. Still, Josi's 2021-22 metrics were not very elevated, so presumably he has this in him again. Would it be impossible for a player to become a top tier fantasy asset at age 29, as Josi seemingly did in 2019-20? While it is true that the vast majority of the 66 d-men who played 40+ games in a season while, in the same season, averaging at least 0.8 points per game (i.e., a 65 point pace) dating back to 2000-01 had reached that level before age 29, take, for example, John Carlson and Victor Hedman. Prior to posting 68 points at age 28 in 2017-18, Carlson had never bested 55. Since then he's been a force. It's a similar situation with Victor Hedman, who did have a 72-point season at age 26 but then it wasn't until this season that he bested the 0.9 points per game mark. Brent Burns was 30 when he exploded for the first of his four amazing seasons. In other words, Josi could be following a script that, although atypical, is one several others have likewise followed of late. While I wouldn't be so bold as to predict Josi duplicating his output from this season, 70 points again is not out of the question.

Tkachuk likely was one of the most valuable players in this league for 2021-22, what with his great +/- plus very good PIM to go along with outstanding offense. Can he duplicate it? If the line of him, Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm stays intact I don't see why not, as even with them being the focal point of other teams' top defenses, the trio thrived. Yes, Tkachuk and Gaudreau need to be signed, but one would think they'd be crazy to "split up the band" when it's done so well.

As for Connor, he's a fine player, but his points and especially his PIM lag behind Tkachuk. And the Jets don't figure to improve much, if at all, beyond how they've been, making it so a rising tide is unlikely to lift Connor's boat. While Connor has had a more consistent career versus Tkachuk, I believe Tkachuk has shown enough, especially with these categories, to be a notch above Connor. As far as Josi vs. Tkachuk, I'm going Tkachuk due not only to his excellence in these categories but also the fact that Makar is already being retained on defence. Josi and/or Connor should be traded for draft picks if possible, as one or both should be able to fetch a decent return.

Topic #4 – In an 8 team, keep 9 (5F, 3D, 1G) league where 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2G start and the categories are G(3), A(2), +/-(1), PM(0.5), PPP(1), GW(1), S(0.4), W(4), SV(0.2), GA(-1), SO(2), a team that won the league this season is having a tough time deciding on its keepers mainly due to (a) not having any draft picks in rounds 1-5, and (b) the league's rule that if a player who was kept the prior season is not kept again, his team forfeits the draft pick in the round in which that player was kept. Given that rule, which of the following players should be kept (with those who were kept for 2021-22 and the round in which they were kept indicated as such)?

F – David Pastrnak (2nd), Jake Guentzel (2nd), Mikko Rantanen (5th), Jonathan Huberdeau (6th), Sebastian Aho (7th), Kevin Fiala, Timo Meier, Alex DeBrincat, Robert Thomas

D – Cale Makar (12th), Darnell Nurse (12th), Tony DeAngelo, Jakub Chychrun, Noah Dobson, Justin Faulk

G – Andrei Vasilevskiy (1st), Juuse Saros

Lastly, for players not previously kept, if the team kept them now then opted not to do so for 2023-24, the round penalty for each would be: DeBrincat (1st), Chychrun (2nd), Fiala (3rd), Saros and DeAngelo (both 4ths), Meier, Thomas, Dobson, and Faulk (all 12ths). Lastly, if two players who would be kept have the same associated round penalty, the GM would need to trade for an extra pick in that round.

Sometimes winning does paint one into quite a corner, as is the case here in that due to not having picks in rounds 1-5 it almost forces this team to keep – or trade – Vas, Pasta, Guentzel, as well as Rantanen because otherwise it would require them to obtain picks to pay the penalty for each. That is not ideal for sure, as it will cause this team to make keeper decisions not based purely on "normal" circumstances.

Let's get the easy stuff over with, which is Makar and Huberdeau being kept, as they're too good to consider not holding. In terms of other forwards, Meier, Thomas and DeBrincat are enticing due to their round penalties, but I don't think they're good enough to overcome the desire to make things easiest and least painful by keeping Pasta, Guentzel, Rantanen, and Aho, as if Aho was not kept that's mean no pick in round 7 in addition to none in rounds 1-5. It's not like these are bad players; they just leave this team with no realistic other options from where I sit.

For defense, I think Nurse is okay to not keep, incurring a relatively painless forfeiture of a 12th round pick. I like Dobson as a second rearguard keeper not only due to his upside with no more Barry Trotz but also his low price were he to somehow not pan out and isn't kept next season. After that it gets dicey, as I worry about DeAngelo reverting to the DeAngelo of 2020-21 which happened after he signed his last deal, and that one was for less money. While it's true he's one of fewer than a dozen current defensemen who could be a perennial 70+ point guy, he's also a big risk of shooting himself – and his fantasy owners – in the foot. If DeAngelo is kept and has another meltdown, it's a double whammy in the form of poor stats for 2022-23 plus the loss of a 4th round pick for 2023-24.

The solution is to use a goalie plus a non-retained skater to get another keepable d-man; and from the thread it sounds as if Fox would be available, which would be perfect. Yes, I think he overachieved, as pointed out in a Goldipucks column; however, he's still a 65-70 point downside defenseman and doesn't come with the risks DeAngelo does.

But who to trade? In this league with these categories, a well performing workhorse like Saros is arguably already as good as Vas now, and might surpass him. So I think that although Vas had a subpar season, he still has huge name recognition and is the one to trade. Plus, this way the team rids itself of the looming specter of losing a 1st rounder if/when Vas was ever not kept. Vas plus DeAngelo should be able to get Fox plus, I'd think, a draft pick or two in return. If need be, the likes of Meier, DeBrincat or Thomas can also be thrown in as sweeteners. Use all this to get Fox plus restock the draft cupboard.

Topic #5 – Dougie Hamilton's 2021-22 was definitely a disappointment versus expectations. Is it realistic to expect him to bounce back, or is his best hockey already behind him?

Although it seems like he's been around forever and the Devils are already his fourth NHL team, Hamilton still doesn't even turn 29 until next month. We need look no further than Roman Josi, John Carlson and Victor Hedman to see that d-men can succeed in their 30s in today's NHL. But will Hamilton rebound after what was indeed a subpar 2021-22? I say yes.

For starters, the last two times Hamilton changed teams he fared markedly better in his second season on his new squad, going from a scoring pace of 43 to 51 in Calgary then from 39 to 70 for Carolina. Although it is true the Devils have no shortage of capable defensemen, including Damon Severson, who had a career season in 2021-22 and will be playing for a UFA deal in 2022-23, plus Ty Smith, who remains highly regarded, Hamilton makes more than double what Severson does, and is signed through 2027-28, so New Jersey will do everything in its power to ensure Hamilton's success.

There's also the fact that as poorly as Hamilton performed this past season, he still shot the puck a ton; and although he actually lost the PP1 gig for a while, he had a considerably higher IPP on the PP this season than he did when he scored at a 70 point pace for Carolina two seasons ago. In stark contrast, however, his overall IPP was 37.5% after averaging 51.8% over his previous seven seasons. If his 2021-22 IPP would've 51.8%, his scoring pace would've been 55 points.

Also, even though Hamilton has averaged over 3.1 SOG per game in just the past five seasons and isn't even 30 years old yet, it turns out only one other defenseman (Rob Blake) dating back all the way to 1990-91 had five seasons of 3.1+ SOG per game from age 20-30. How did Blake fare at Hamilton's age and older? Quite well it turns out, as he had several more seasons where he had a 55-70 point scoring pace. Plus, Blake played a physical game, so injuries and that style took a toll as he got into his 30s, which won't be a concern when it comes to Hamilton, who's more of a finesse player.

Lastly, New Jersey is a team that only figures to get better in the coming years, what with Jack Hughes looking every bit a franchise center, Nico Hischier making a very solid #2 pivot, and the impending arrival of Alexander Holtz, not to mention some solid wingers already there. Things look as those they're going to get better soon for the Devils, with Hamilton set to be a major beneficiary as the top offensive rearguard.

Long story short, Hamilton's 2021-22 was worse than it looked due to unsustainably bad luck, plus past results suggest that he tends to fare considerably better after he's gotten his feet wet on a team. Add to that the favorable Blake comparison and the likelihood of New Jersey getting better, and I'd peg Hamilton as more likely than not to get 60 points next season, with a good shot at 65+.

Topic #6 – In a 14 team, keep 3, H2H league with categories of G, A, PPPts, PIM, TOI, +/-, SV%, GAA, W, SO, and with rosters of 19 skaters and 4 goalies, who should be kept from the following group: Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Hughes, Nazem Kadri, Andrei Svechnikov, William Nylander, Gabriel Landeskog, Aaron Ekblad, Ilya Sorokin?

First off, what can't be missed is the fact that goalie categories account for 40% of the scoring in this league and four are rostered. Nevertheless, I'm guessing it's very rare for any team to keep a goalie. But I'd argue that with Barry Trotz out of the picture, Sorokin would make my list as a keeper for the simple reason that I'd think he'd be better than at least three other choices. And that's what it boils down to when selecting this few keepers.

Who, then, would be the other two keeps? It has to be the best available guys, which means Kaprizov, Hughes, or Ekblad. Svechnikov, for all his hype, hasn't quite paid off; and without Hits or SOG he isn't a better option than the other two forwards, while Kadri would be great if we knew for a fact the 2021-22 Kadri would be what we'd get in 2022-23, except I see him as having made a huge UFA push and benefitting from the protection of playing on the same squad as a center like Nathan MacKinnon, who teams had no choice but to zero in on. As for Nylander and Landeskog, they're not in the same conversion as Kaprizov or Hughes.

Is Ekblad good enough to supplant one of the two forwards? It's tempting, what with his huge ice time and being the unquestioned top defenseman in all situations for a Florida squad that just became the first NHL team in over 25 seasons to average over four goals a game. But Ekblad also has missed time the past two seasons, raising concern of him becoming a belated Band-Aid Boy. Also, although Florida shouldn't be losing any of it's major offensive weapons this offseason, the last time a team did score over four goals a game was the 1995-96 Penguins, who averaged 4.41, only to see their total dip by nearly a full goal to 3.48 in 1996-97.

I think if Sorokin isn't kept, then it's fine to keep Ekblad. But if Sorokin is retained, and I think he should be, then go with Kaprizov and Hughes due to what they offer now and down the road.

Topic #7 – In a 12 team, H2H league counting G, A, +/-, PIM, ATOI, SOG, HIT, BLK, STP, W, SO, GAA, SV%, five players need to be kept, with the understanding that the league will undergo a complete reset after this season, meaning that no players who are kept this season can be kept when it comes to 2023-24. Given this, which five make the most sense to keep: Mitch Marner, Kirill Kaprizov, Kyle Connor, Zach Hyman, Trevor Zegras, Yanni Gourde, Viktor Arvidsson, Frank Vatrano, Frederick Gaudreau, Anthony Mantha, Jeff Carter, Roman Josi, Thomas Chabot, Justin Faulk, Hampus Lindholm, Damon Severson, Jacob Trouba, Brady Skjei, Bowen Byram, Juuse Saros, Jake Oettinger?

If this is the team's entire roster, then it means each squad will keep 22% (i.e., 5/22) of its players, which is not too high but also not too low of a percentage. Normally that might leave room for one risk/reward keeper; however, with a full league reset coming after this season there is no choice but to keep the best five players on paper. So for example, Zegras and/or Oettinger might've been options to keep if there was no reset; however, both are off the table here given the other options.

Forward seems easy, as the first three – Marner, Kaprizov and Connor – are the best of the bunch by far. Goalie is pretty cut and dry as well, with Saros being a skilled workhorse who will contribute across the board. Zegras and Oettinger could be put up for trade, but I doubt there would be any interested GMs given the 2023-24 reset, although with the way Oettinger has played and him all but assured to be the clear cut #1 in Dallas for 2022-23, a team may be willing to make a deal for him.

Defense is the only tough call. If there was a league that was tailor made for Chabot this would be it, as he's a TOI monster plus pretty solid in the other multi-cat areas. Still, even if Josi had performed at the same 56- to 62-point pace where he finished in six of his past eight seasons, he's right up there in TOI and maybe even a notch above Chabot in multi-cat areas. What we can't – and shouldn't – ignore is Josi's value being so elevated right now, and Chabot being a solid fall back, such that I think it would be negligent not to try and trade Josi while his value is sky high. Yes, as noted above, Josi could be following the playbook of the likes of Victor Hedman and John Carlson, who both took it to the next level starting at or near the age of 30. But they were – and are – on high scoring, up temp offensive teams, while Josi isn't, which, along with Josi's career best in SH% and overall IPP this season, individually and collectively make it more difficult to envision him replicating what he did. Do I think he can be a 60-70 point guy? I'd say more likely than not; however, his trade value, even accounting for skeptical other GMs, would be high, making it so he should be put on the block. If a good deal comes along, then I'd take it and be happy keeping Chabot, as with only 60 players being kept Josi could land one or more very solid draft picks, either alone or in combination with Zegras or Oettinger.

Topic #8 – In an 11 team, keep 12 (max 2G) roto league with rosters of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G plus 4 Bench and 2 IR, and categories of G, A, PPPts, GWG, SHP, HIT, +/-, PIM, BLK, GS, GAA, SV%, SO, a team is settled on nine of its keepers (Connor McDavid, J.T. Miller, Jason Robertson, Kevin Fiala, Elias Lindholm, Gabriel Landeskog, Dougie Hamilton, Connor Hellebuyck, and Igor Shesterkin) and has a final three narrowed to the following, with their 2020-21 rank in parentheses – Darnell Nurse (50th), Noah Dobson (93rd), Sam Bennett (100th), Bryan Rust (103rd), Robert Thomas (169th), ad Seth Jones (180th). Who should the final three keeps be?

First things first, I believe the nine presumed keepers are logical. Hopefully after having read the above regarding Hamilton it's clear he deserves a spot. As for the six, from the get go I'll say if Dobson was that highly ranked while playing in a Barry Trotz system, I think he's a must keep now that Trotz is gone and offense will be more of a focal point. Plus, keep in mind Dobson started slowly, with four points in 16 games, meaning he ended with 47 in 64, which would be a full season pace of 60 points…..in a Trotz system. Don't let him get away; he's a must keep.

On the other hand, even though Thomas too was better than he seemed due to his late season play (31 points in 23 games), I worry his upside is limited by playing on a team which, even if David Perron and/or Vladimir Tarasenko leave, rolls with three lines, preventing anyone from being a "the guy" player. And if Thomas was to falter, there's Brayden Schenn and Ryan O'Reilly signed to large deals who would push him aside. Add to that Thomas being woefully ill-suited to these categories, as evidenced by his ranking, and I think he's either trade bait or a non-keep.

Bennett is a tough one. Florida has a surplus of forward talent; but no one – other than broken down, buy out waiting to happen Patric Hornqvist – plays the "sandpaper" style of Bennett, making it all but assured he'll be on a top line to help prevent other teams from taking liberties with Panther stars, be it Jonathan Huberdeau and/or Aleksander Barkov. In addition to his "banger" contributions, Bennett's goal-centric scoring is actually helpful here, as there's GWG, although on the other hand not being on PP1 is a negative. Plus, as I noted, the last time a team averaged 4+ goals per game they scored nearly a full goal less the next season. In all, I don't see Bennett doing worse though; so if he was ranked in the top 100 and 12 are kept on 11 teams, then by the math it seems to make sense to keep him. But let's put him as a maybe for now.

Rust I don't like as a keep. Yes, maybe he and Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang all take less to stay in Pittsburgh; however, I think that's far from a guarantee. And unlike those other two, Rust has never had a big pay day so he might be lured away; plus, it's unclear if he can succeed without the likes of Malkin or Sidney Crosby centering him. I'll still put him as a maybe; but if it comes down to him and Bennett, I'm going with Bennett.

As for Nurse and Jones, never would I have guessed they'd be ranked over 100 spots apart. But the numbers are reality. What also is reality is the Blackhawks not being poised to do any better in 2022-23 than this season, making it so Jones likely will have a tough time improving. As for Nurse, maybe his 2020-21, rather than being a sign of him breaking out, was actually a mirage and he's only a point per every other game guy. But if he's that and still ranked 50th, I can't see a universe in which he's not kept.

Dobson and Nurse are keeps for sure. The other probably is Bennett given league settings, with Thomas and/or Rust being potential trade bait and Jones just a non-keep.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

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