Typically, I have informally added my salary projections to the end of a Ramblings article, but this time I wanted to put them out as a separate page to keep it a little cleaner. I have been working on contract projections since the fall of 2017, and it has been a big help to my own planning in fantasy leagues, on top of just being a fun bit of data to use for other discussions and articles.
My projections are done as an algorithm that I have set up as part of my cap league skater and goalie rankings. It would be impossible to project the cap league values of these players without an input, and as a result I have gotten to the point of refining this system where the output does a respectable job of projecting the cap hit of a player on their next contract at any moment in time. I have not found it at all important to be able to project the term on these future contracts, as those are generally easier to foresee, in addition to them having a negligible impact on the future fantasy value of a player. As a result, I only show the projected cap hit below. If you take a look at a few of the players though, it's nearly a given that the contracts given to the higher profile players will be longer term, while the depth and fringe lineup players will be shorter. In the middle, the players in their late 20s and early 30s get the term, while the older and younger players have to settle for the shorter-term deals.
There are a few players in here where the projection looks a little high off the bat, including Jack Campbell, Valeri Nichushkin, and Tony DeAngelo. The system is completely numbers based, so the risk with goalies that have a shorter track record, or players that bring along off-ice baggage (hello DeAngelo and Evander Kane) are harder to quantify. Nichushkin's case is interesting though, as he's someone that really had to simmer, and took a long time to develop. His jump this season is greatly leaning on his increased ice time. What that means is that if he does end up signing a fat contract on his way out of Colorado, is that the production should be able to be maintained, as his other underlying numbers all look normal. The only red flag is that the 27-year-old has played six full seasons now and doesn't have a year with an IPP even close to the usual 70% metric that we like to see from players that can drive their own line. It does make me think that a team without a lot of depth will try to lure Nichushkin away to anchor their second line, and he will struggle to produce in that kind of environment.
One player that jumps out to me on the opposite end of the spectrum is Yakov Trenin. Trenin is the centre on the Herd Line for the Predators, and was one of their best players in the series against the Avalanche. Trenin is only projected for a new deal at just above $1 million, and despite David Poile having a track record of being able to sign his RFAs to bargain contracts, even that seems a little low for an established third line centre.
Two contracts signed recently that my algorithm had some issues with were the Mark Giordano and Bryan Rust contracts. Both took discounts to stick with the teams they wanted to play for, and as a result they both came in about $1.5 million below where I had them pegged. It doesn't happen too often, but I could see a few other veterans such as Patrice Bergeron, Claude Giroux, and Ondrej Palat doing the same.
If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean. Comments are always appreciated.
Rank | Name | Age | Pos | Projected Cap Hit |
1 | Johnny Gaudreau | 28 | F | $10,564,900 |
2 | Matthew Tkachuk | 24 | F | $9,558,600 |
3 | Filip Forsberg | 27 | F | $8,394,700 |
4 | Nazem Kadri | 31 | F | $7,812,600 |
5 | Patrik Laine | 24 | F | $7,804,800 |
6 | John Klingberg | 29 | D | $7,021,900 |
7 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | 23 | F | $6,683,100 |
8 | Kris Letang | 35 | D | $6,556,600 |
9 | Josh Norris | 23 | F | $6,390,200 |
10 | Jack Campbell | 30 | G | $6,041,500 |
11 | Patrice Bergeron | 36 | F | $6,025,400 |
12 | Ondrej Palat | 31 | F | $5,961,100 |
13 | Brock Boeser | 25 | F | $5,955,400 |
14 | Valeri Nichushkin | 27 | F | $5,931,000 |
15 | Darcy Kuemper | 32 | G | $5,879,500 |
16 | Vincent Trocheck | 29 | F | $5,815,900 |
17 | Kevin Fiala | 25 | F | $5,768,900 |
18 | Ryan Strome | 28 | F | $5,749,100 |
19 | Jason Robertson | 22 | F | $5,441,700 |
20 | Tony DeAngelo | 26 | D | $5,434,700 |
21 | Evgeni Malkin | 35 | F | $5,209,200 |
22 | Jesper Bratt | 23 | F | $5,069,500 |
23 | Ville Husso | 27 | G | $5,029,800 |
24 | Noah Dobson | 22 | D | $5,002,800 |
25 | Jake Oettinger | 23 | G | $4,677,400 |
26 | Ilya Samsonov | 25 | G | $4,634,600 |
27 | Vitek Vanecek | 26 | G | $4,373,200 |
28 | Andre Burakovsky | 27 | F | $4,165,000 |
29 | Andrew Mangiapane | 26 | F | $4,155,500 |
30 | Adrian Kempe | 25 | F | $4,077,900 |
31 | Andrew Copp | 27 | F | $4,004,700 |
32 | Mason Marchment | 27 | F | $3,895,300 |
33 | Victor Olofsson | 26 | F | $3,885,900 |
34 | Dylan Strome | 25 | F | $3,868,800 |
35 | Claude Giroux | 34 | F | $3,811,800 |
36 | Evander Kane | 30 | F | $3,765,200 |
37 | Ben Chiarot | 31 | D | $3,707,100 |
38 | Lawson Crouse | 24 | F | $3,652,000 |
39 | Ilya Mikheyev | 27 | F | $3,466,800 |
40 | David Perron | 33 | F | $3,413,800 |
41 | Josh Manson | 30 | D | $3,289,100 |
42 | Rickard Rakell | 29 | F | $3,038,200 |
43 | Kaapo Kakko | 21 | F | $2,941,000 |
44 | Morgan Frost | 23 | F | $2,899,000 |
45 | Reilly Smith | 31 | F | $2,880,600 |
46 | Nino Niederreiter | 29 | F | $2,855,200 |
47 | Dominik Kubalik | 26 | F | $2,826,000 |
48 | Charlie Lindgren | 28 | G | $2,814,200 |
49 | Adam Boqvist | 21 | D | $2,735,200 |
50 | Marc-Andre Fleury | 37 | G | $2,685,500 |
51 | Kirby Dach | 21 | F | $2,676,800 |
52 | Ondrej Kase | 26 | F | $2,542,900 |
53 | Phil Kessel | 34 | F | $2,501,100 |
54 | Oliver Kylington | 25 | D | $2,447,200 |
55 | Kasperi Kapanen | 25 | F | $2,436,600 |
56 | Erik Brannstrom | 22 | D | $2,428,800 |
57 | Isac Lundestrom | 22 | F | $2,402,100 |
58 | Nicholas Paul | 27 | F | $2,388,600 |
59 | Artturi Lehkonen | 26 | F | $2,368,700 |
60 | P.K. Subban | 33 | D | $2,355,800 |
61 | Evan Rodrigues | 28 | F | $2,313,200 |
62 | Sean Durzi | 23 | D | $2,272,200 |
63 | Mario Ferraro | 23 | D | $2,243,600 |
64 | Kailer Yamamoto | 23 | F | $2,218,400 |
65 | Pierre Engvall | 25 | F | $2,197,500 |
66 | Martin Necas | 23 | F | $2,174,900 |
67 | Rasmus Sandin | 22 | D | $2,164,700 |
68 | Frank Vatrano | 28 | F | $2,143,400 |
69 | Max Domi | 27 | F | $2,133,700 |
70 | Sammy Blais | 25 | F | $2,129,700 |
71 | Pavel Zacha | 25 | F | $2,121,200 |
72 | Casey DeSmith | 30 | G | $2,101,900 |
73 | Eric Comrie | 26 | G | $2,051,900 |
74 | Jack Roslovic | 25 | F | $1,999,700 |
75 | Mathieu Joseph | 25 | F | $1,973,700 |
76 | Jesse Puljujarvi | 24 | F | $1,929,600 |
77 | Scott Perunovich | 23 | D | $1,898,700 |
78 | Mikey Anderson | 22 | D | $1,889,000 |
79 | Luke Kunin | 24 | F | $1,881,900 |
80 | Gabriel Vilardi | 22 | F | $1,872,100 |
81 | Nikita Zadorov | 27 | D | $1,791,200 |
82 | Alexandar Georgiev | 26 | G | $1,774,600 |
83 | Sonny Milano | 26 | F | $1,707,000 |
84 | Alexander Edler | 36 | D | $1,656,700 |
85 | Braden Holtby | 32 | G | $1,644,600 |
86 | Calle Jarnkrok | 30 | F | $1,570,000 |
87 | Justin Schultz | 31 | D | $1,547,600 |
88 | Rem Pitlick | 25 | F | $1,534,400 |
89 | Miles Wood | 26 | F | $1,511,600 |
90 | Nick Leddy | 31 | D | $1,504,300 |
91 | Marcus Johansson | 31 | F | $1,486,100 |
92 | Ilya Lyubushkin | 28 | D | $1,479,400 |
93 | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 23 | G | $1,474,200 |
94 | Vladislav Namestnikov | 29 | F | $1,468,000 |
95 | Tyler Motte | 27 | F | $1,465,000 |
96 | Chris Wideman | 32 | D | $1,434,500 |
97 | Jonathan Dahlen | 24 | F | $1,432,100 |
98 | Timothy Liljegren | 23 | D | $1,389,100 |
99 | Nicolas Roy | 25 | F | $1,383,800 |
100 | Chris Tierney | 27 | F | $1,318,700 |
101 | Kaapo Kahkonen | 25 | G | $1,318,400 |
102 | Andreas Athanasiou | 27 | F | $1,300,400 |
103 | Mikko Koskinen | 33 | G | $1,293,000 |
104 | Paul Stastny | 36 | F | $1,253,800 |
105 | Mattias Janmark | 29 | F | $1,248,800 |
106 | Ryan Lomberg | 27 | F | $1,240,000 |
107 | Denis Gurianov | 24 | F | $1,165,000 |
108 | Ian Cole | 33 | D | $1,160,500 |
109 | Michal Kempny | 31 | D | $1,143,200 |
110 | Yakov Trenin | 25 | F | $1,140,100 |
111 | Alex Formenton | 22 | F | $1,138,600 |
112 | Scott Wedgewood | 29 | G | $1,102,500 |
113 | Filip Zadina | 22 | F | $1,102,300 |
114 | Barrett Hayton | 21 | F | $1,064,200 |
115 | Owen Tippett | 23 | F | $1,050,100 |
116 | Erik Gustafsson | 30 | D | $1,049,500 |
117 | Derek Stepan | 31 | F | $1,005,000 |
118 | Martin Jones | 32 | G | $1,004,300 |
119 | Colin Blackwell | 29 | F | $997,200 |
120 | Ryan Poehling | 23 | F | $979,500 |
121 | Brett Kulak | 28 | D | $958,600 |
122 | Johan Larsson | 29 | F | $953,200 |
123 | Keegan Kolesar | 25 | F | $925,000 |
124 | Noah Gregor | 23 | F | $900,500 |
125 | Ryan McLeod | 22 | F | $885,400 |
126 | Ethan Bear | 24 | D | $884,900 |
127 | Noel Acciari | 30 | F | $872,800 |
128 | Jesper Boqvist | 23 | F | $872,500 |
129 | Juho Lammikko | 26 | F | $871,700 |
130 | Josh Mahura | 24 | D | $852,900 |
131 | Oskar Steen | 24 | F | $847,000 |
132 | Danton Heinen | 26 | F | $834,000 |
133 | Alex Galchenyuk | 28 | F | $827,800 |
134 | Dustin Tokarski | 32 | G | $822,700 |
135 | Sam Steel | 24 | F | $816,300 |
136 | Ryan Donato | 26 | F | $750,000 |
137 | Sam Gagner | 32 | F | $750,000 |
138 | Brett Howden | 24 | F | $750,000 |
139 | Vinnie Hinostroza | 28 | F | $750,000 |
140 | Maxim Mamin | 27 | F | $750,000 |
141 | Nico Sturm | 27 | F | $750,000 |
142 | Zach Sanford | 27 | F | $750,000 |
143 | Carl Grundstrom | 24 | F | $750,000 |
144 | Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 26 | F | $750,000 |
145 | Daniel Sprong | 25 | F | $750,000 |
146 | Tyler Ennis | 32 | F | $750,000 |
147 | Evgeny Svechnikov | 25 | F | $750,000 |
148 | Zach Aston-Reese | 27 | F | $750,000 |
149 | Mason Appleton | 26 | F | $750,000 |
150 | Sam Montembeault | 25 | G | $750,000 |
6 Comments
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Reilly Smith at 3M and Fiala not even at 6M.
Don’t think so.
Smith is interesting because everyone says he’s way overpaid at $5M, but at $3M he would be underpaid. It’s possible he ends up closer to $4M, but this is where the numbers have him and I don’t think it will be far off.
As for Fiala, he’s still an RFA, and I can’t see a world in which he gets over $7M, so I think something around $6M makes sense for him. Will be an interesting case for sure.
Copp at 2.5 is hilariously bad but for my salary Dynasty team I sure hope so!
Thanks for the laugh Stacey. Yeah there was actually an issue with Copp’s numbers between his time with WPG and NYR this year they weren’t processing properly. I’ve updated the chart and he’s now nestled in right at a projected $4M. I think that makes a lot more sense. Is that in the range of what you expected as well?
Hi Alexander, thanks a lot for providing these estimates! … one thing – just for convenience would be really nice if you threw in an RFA/UFA column if you were so inclined …
also I was wondering if you’d share any details about your model just out of curiosity (linear regression ? What were some key input variables? … ) no need to share if you’d prefer not of course …thanks again, all the best
Hey Joe, I definitely agree that a UFA/RFA column would make sense for future.
Really it’s one excel spreadsheet algorithm that I have tweaked over the years. All the usual stuff with age, position, and production, but also included are the Dobber upside and 3YP measures as well as some usage and other metric bits.
Cheers!