Hard at work on the Fantasy Prospects Report, which will come out the afternoon of June 14. It is the 16^th edition and has been an invaluable resource for keeper and dynasty leaguers. You can pre-order it here. So far, I'm really impressed with the fantasy-worthy prospects that have been filtering into the Dallas system. I assess and write up 16 of the teams (200 prospects or so) myself.

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Welcome to the last game of the second round…

Tonight, Carolina could become the first team to ever win two series in one postseason without having won a single game on the road.

The Rangers are 7-1 in their past eight Game 7s.

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Game 7 Trends

• The team that scores first is 142-47 (.751) in the 189 all-time Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (4-1 in 2022).
• Home teams own a 111-78 (.587) advantage in the 189 all-time Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (4-1 in 2022).
• Ninety-six of the 189 all-time Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (50.8%) have been decided by a one-goal margin, including four of five thus far in 2022.
• Forty-seven Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs have required overtime (24.9%). Home teams have a 25-22 edge in those contests (2-0 in 2022).

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On the weekend I bet a die-hard Leafs fan $50 that Toronto gets out of the first round next year. Call me optimistic, call me a homer. Whatever you want to call me. I do live just outside of Toronto and the Leafs are one of the teams that I root for (Pittsburgh and Edmonton the others – and currently I love what the Rangers have done and are doing). But I don't spend money/wager unless I believe it to be in my favor. This is why I prefer keeper leagues over dynasty leagues. Because I'm a coward. Give me a shot in your one-year league and I might win. Give me a shot in your dynasty league and I will definitely win three to five times out of 10, depending on the competition. That's why I prefer those leagues – give me a few chances and absolutely I'll get it right.

So I'm as conservative with my betting as it gets. I saw a Toronto team that spanked Tampa Bay, other than in four out of 22 periods. I saw a Leafs team that made Andrei Vasilevskiy into a mere mortal – to the point that Tampa fans were questioning why he wasn't performing anymore. Turns out Vasilevskiy is just fine, as you saw him shut down the top offensive team in hockey in the very next round. But Toronto solved him, and I don't think they need to do anything different with their roster. Offer Tampa Bay this option: Either play the Leafs again in a best of seven for the Cup, or play two more rounds for the Cup as they currently need to and I think Tampa chooses the two-more-rounds option rather than face the Leafs again. They barely got out of that round by the tips of their fingernails.

This Leafs fan was like many others I hear from. He wanted to fire the key organizational heads and the coach. And that's exactly how you never win Cups. If you have a plan, you build to that plan, and you reach for that plan – you don't dismantle the plan until it's completely run its course. You sink or swim with that plan and you give it five or six years. They've given it four. You now have Mitch Marner at 25, Auston Matthews at 24, Willy Nylander at 26, Michael Bunting at 26, Morgan Rielly at 28 and John Tavares at 31. The key players are now in their prime. Let's compare initial Cups won by certain cores, and remember that they were considered 'failures' in the several years leading up to the big win:

Nikita Kucherov was 26, Steven Stamkos was 29, Brayden Point was 23, Victor Hedman was 28, Alex Killorn was 29, Ondrej Palat 28. These ages were the same as where Toronto is at now!

Steve Yzerman was 31, Brendan Shanahan was 27, Sergei Fedorov was 26, Nicklas Lidstrom was 26, Slava Kozlov was 24, Igor Larionov was 35. Again, we're talking similar ages here. And Steve Yzerman, heading into that particular Cup season, was called out as "not clutch" and "not a playoff guy" and "should he even be captain?" (ahem – Tavares)

Here is a team that was younger – Chicago. Patrick Kane was just 20, Jonathan Toews was 21, Kris Versteeg was 24 and so was Big Buff. But Patrick Sharp was 27, Duncan Keith was 26, Marian Hossa was 30 and so was Brian Campbell.

So no, you don't fire the GM, president nor coach. As soon as you do that, the new person starts making changes and probably big ones. I don't think that would be a good thing. 'The Plan' would start over

The Leafs won't let this happen once again. They may not win the Cup (odds are they won't), but I'm confident they get out of the first two rounds next year. And now I have fifty bucks on them at least getting out of Round 1 to back this up.

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Speaking of the Leafs, Jason Spezza has announced his retirement. I guess the Leafs didn't see him as a fit for their plans for next year, which is a shame – on most teams he could be a 35-point player on the third line and a leader in the dressing room. On the Leafs, they probably couldn't promise him a regular lineup spot, and instead offered him a front office position which he ultimately took. The retirement is a shame in that he ends his career with 995 points. So close! In his third year (he played a year in between in the AHL thanks to the lockout) he broke out with 90 points in 68 games in what turned out to be the best points-per-game average of his career. But during that three-year span with Ottawa alongside Dany Heatley he had 90, 87 and 92 points – his three best years. Spezza ended up topping 80 points four times, and 60 points eight times. His best fantasy season was his fifth one, when he had career highs in goals, points and plus-minus with 34, 92 and plus-26, as well as his third-highest PIM total at 66.

Spezza's legacy lives on in Ottawa, in the form of Mathieu Joseph. Nick Paul was a key part of the Spezza trade, and Paul was traded to Tampa for Joseph. Both Paul and Joseph really flourished in their new organizations at the end of the season.

Okay, so that's me signing off on Leafs rambles this summer – unless there is something relevant news-wise I will focus on the other 31 teams.

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Florida and the Rangers are at where the Leafs were about three years ago. They have the advantage of top goaltending, but Sergei Bobrovsky was only good for one round. Igor Shesterkin, who is elite – for my money the best in the world – has carried a young, inexperienced Rangers team farther than they were ready for. Put him on the Leafs, the Avs, the Panthers, the Bruins, the Blues or the Hurricanes and you have your Cup winner. The Rangers are winning a Cup, probably three times within the next decade. Calling it now.

Ottawa is a year behind all of the above. I can see a big step coming from Ottawa next season. And Detroit is a year behind Ottawa.

Man, I love watching good rebuilds. The Rangers are especially nice because they had tons of luck to help out: Artemi Panarin and Adam Fox wanted – and went out of their way – to play for them, Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko were results of lucky draft lottery spots and Mika Zibanejad was highway robbery when it comes to trade acquisitions. The speed of the Rangers rebuild was helped out by a good three years because of those things. Most teams have to suffer through pain for much, much longer. It's like a rebuild on steroids! But I love seeing it all work, year after year, which is why I have dedicated so many words to the rebuilds this week.

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The Gold Medal game at the Men's World Championship went down on Sunday afternoon, with Team Canada going up against Team Finland. The Canadians were up 1-0 but down a man midway through the third period when the excitement and controversy really ramped up. A phantom call, made by a ref at the other end of the rink, put the Canadian's down two men. The Finns converted, and on the goal Chris Driedger was injured stretching to try to make the save. With their No.3 goalie in place, Matt Tompkins, the Finns scored a second time. Mikael Granlund scored both, Joel Armia added a third. The Canadians pulled the goalie and scored twice to tie. Finns win in OT.

You can check out the player stats/leading scorers of the tournament here. But of note:

• Max Comtois had a miserable season but a wonderful tournament. He led Anaheim in scoring a year ago, so this season's drought was a matter of a slow start followed by losing ice time and top linemates. He needs a fresh beginning on a new team.
• Toronto's Denis Malgin had 12 points in eight games for Switzerland. This is a player who was never given an opportunity. It's the dangers of having too much depth and adding too many camp invites. If another team acquired his rights (Seattle?), I think he'd surprise. He outscored teammates Nico Hischier (eight points) and Pius Suter (eight points).
• Adam Gaudette, who had trouble getting ice time in Ottawa, led the USA in points with eight (six goals) in 10 games. He's up for a new contract and I don't even know if the Sens will qualify him. But he's just 25 years old and is definitely worth a second look. He's played 218 career NHL games and, yep, that's the Breakout Threshold. He was pointless in his last 25 games with Ottawa, often playing with Tim Stutzle and Alex Formenton. But with Shane Pinto coming back, I just don't think Ottawa has room for him. If he isn't qualified and signs elsewhere, I think he's worth keeping on the radar. Not as a high-end fantasy own, but a decent middle-of-the-road producer.
• 36-year-old former NHLer Roman Cervenka led the entire tournament with 17 points (10 games). And David Krejci, also 36, was second on Czechia with 12 points.
• New Detroit goaltender Magnus Hellberg was fantastic over four games (0.932 SV%). He was a highly-touted draft pick of Nashville's who never panned out – and now he's 31. So again, I harken back to my statement of not expecting anything from goalies until they are well into their 20s. The Rangers released him in 2017 when he was 26…just in time for him to find his mojo in the KHL. Right in that goalie career sweet spot. In the five seasons since he went to the KHL, his numbers have been nothing short of stellar. And now that he's signed with an NHL team in need of a backup goalie – I think he's one to watch. Of course Alex Nedeljkovic would need to stumble or get injured to give Hellberg any value.
• Mikko Lehtonen was the victim of Toronto's depth and over-signing players. But when he did play, he had three points in nine games. Later he was given 17 games with Columbus after being traded. Then, 28 and giving up on the NHL, he signed to play in the KHL where he tallied eight points in 15 games. Well, he just led all defensemen – and Team Finland – at the Worlds with 12 points in 10 games en route to a Gold. I wonder if that gets NHL teams to take a second look. He is signed to play in the Swiss league, but I'm sure there's an out clause. Again – why isn't Seattle looking into these things?

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My first instinct upon hearing the Brad Marchand news was to try to trade him in the dynasty league that I own him in. Ship him off to a rebuilding team. But then I remembered he's 34, and rebuilding teams don't want 34-year-olds. So I'm stuck. But some time has passed and I think about Marchand's injury track record. It seems every time we are given a projection as to how long he's sidelined, he returns much earlier. He's supposed to be out until the end of November, but I wouldn't be shocked if he sees a game in October. His points-per-game was consistently above 1.25 for four consecutive seasons, but last year it dipped to 1.14. I expect it will dip against in 2022-23, but he has more value being kept in dynasty formats than what you'd get back in a trade.

Tom Wilson is also out long-term because of surgery. We're looking at Christmas there. Wilson surged to a 52-point pace in 2018-19, but since then his production has only inched upwards, peaking at a 58-point pace. While I think he still has a shot at hitting 60, it's obviously not going to be this year. In 2023-24 maybe. Look for Anthony Mantha to take his PP time. This will be Mantha's year to prove himself. But Step 1 for Mantha is to just stay healthy himself.

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Chris Tanev played with a torn labrum and dislocated shoulder. He is having surgery and is out until around October, likely looking at a slight delay to his season. That should open the door for Juuso Valimaki to get some extra ice time. Valimaki is no longer exempt from waivers and there is no way the Flames risk losing him by trying to send him down.

Other Calgary news – Sean Monahan is ahead of schedule in terms of his recovery from hip surgery. He'll resume skating by July. And now I wonder if his steep production decline was due to the hips (he had surgery on the other one a year ago). If those problems are now solved, adjusting for the usual 20-30 games to get back into the swing of things/timing, etc., I wonder if he could get to some semblance of fantasy relevance. He's still only 27.

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When I see the hype surrounding McDavid vs. MacKinnon I get it. Connor McDavid is the best player in the world and Nathan MacKinnon is Top 3. People will argue Auston Matthews, but regardless – there's your three, right? Wait a minute, what about Leon Draisaitl? Some might chime in with that. What I find strange is that nobody is speaking up for the true No.2.

Cale Makar

Makar is the McDavid of defensemen. MacKinnon only beat him by six points and he's a defenseman! Makar's arcade-level moves are just as sweet as MacKinnon's and McDavid's. How long before a series like this gets billed as McDavid vs. Makar? How long before MacKinnon gets pushed aside in the billing the Evgeni Malkin has for so many years in Pittsburgh?

Can you watch this play at 1:28 and tell me he gets second billing?

Or…geez, really any of those goals.

Have a great week.

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See you next Monday.