Dallas had a good season after missing the playoffs in 2020-21, by winning 46 games in 2021-22 and finishing with 98 points. They lost in the first round to the Calgary Flames in a hard-fought seven games, with the deciding game going to overtime. They will be challenged to repeat that next season as they have some salary cap and depth issues.

GM and Coach

Jim Nill has been the GM in Dallas since April 29, 2013, and will be entering his 10th season with them in 2022-23. In his nine seasons, the Stars made it to the Stanley Cup Finals in a 2019-20 loss to Tampa Bay. They have missed the playoffs four times during that period.

Rick Bowness stepped down as coach on May 20th, 2022 after three seasons in Dallas. The Stars are on the hunt for a new coach.

Salary Cap

Next season, Dallas has just over $17.5 million in cap space to re-sign or replace seven unrestricted free agents and two big-name restricted free agents in Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger.

The cap hit for expiring UFAs is around $16 million, most notably $6.25 million for Alexander Radulov and $4.25 for John Klingberg.

Draft Picks

Dallas has all of their entry picks in 2022, 2023 and 2024 except for their third-round pick in 2023 and their fourth-round pick in 2024. Oddly, they don't have one pick from a trade that was originally the property of another team. This could change before or during the 2022 draft.

Free Agents

Unrestricted free agents are Alexander Radulov (35 years old), Michael Raffl (33), Vladislav Namestnikov (29), John Klingberg (29), Andrej Sekera (35), Scott Wedgewood (29) and Braden Holtby (32).

With the playoffs that Jake Oettinger had, I'm not sure how the Stars can afford to bring back Klingberg at what I'm going to guess is between $5.5 to 6.5 million AAV. They might have to let Klingberg test free agency.

The only other UFA skater I suspect that Dallas might bring back is Namestnikov at a similar two-year deal at $2 million AAV that he is just coming off of.

If the team brings back one or both of Wedgewood or Holtby, the money will need to be $1.5 to 2 million AAV for two years for Holtby and league minimum but a one-way contract for Wedgewood.

Restricted free agents are Denis Gurianov (24), Jason Robertson (22), Marian Studenic (23), Riley Tufte (24) and Jake Oettinger (23). Gurianov will need to be qualified at just over $3 million for next season and Robertson and Oettinger could sign bridge deals for two or three seasons, but one would expect them both to be around $6 million AAV. Those three alone could be $15 million of the $17.5 million in current cap space.

Something will have to give on this roster via trade to create more cap room for Klingberg to be back.

Roster

Here is Dallas's projected roster as it stands with an average player game rating of 6.40. This is the first playoff team we've done so far and their rating reflects it somewhat, but the rating is lower than last season as their roster isn't as strong as it was.  

There aren't many better top lines in the league than Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz and the Stars just wish Pavelski was 27 instead of 37. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin have become second-tier support players even though Seguin is due $13 million next season and Benn a more palpable $6.5 million. Benn has three more seasons at a $9.5 million AAV cap hit, while Seguin has five more seasons at $9.85 million AAV. They are anchors at this point.

There are a lot of players that play on the left and right sides, so from here on, we're just going to classify people as wingers or centers.

The wing has Robertson who had an excellent sophomore season this year with 41 goals and 38 assists in 74 games. Robertson will turn 23 in July and the Stars will hope to get him under contract for eight years or do a bridge deal for the next two or three. Neither will be cheap.

Next in line is 37-year-old Pavelski who takes faceoffs (52.5%) and usually lines up on the right side. He has one year remaining at $5.5 million with a bonus of $500k if he reaches 50 GP. Pavelski set a career-high in points last season with 81, so don't expect a repeat. His contract has a no-movement clause, so don't expect him to be moved at the trade deadline unless he waives.

It was good to see Seguin back for the whole season after only playing three games in 2020-21. His 24 goals and 25 assists in 81 games might be a disappointment to some, but his injury can sometimes take a year to get back to 100%. Expect him to be a little better but his days of 80 points are in the rearview mirror.

The team will need Denis Gurianov to improve over last year's disappointing 11 goals and 20 assists in 73 games. The Stars need the player that had 17 points in 27 playoff games in 2019-20. He is an RFA this off-season and the qualifying offer will need to be over $3 million AAV.

After that, the wing gets a little reliant on unrealized potential and players with limited ceilings. Players pencilled in that have not lived up to their potential are Joel Kiviranta, Marian Studenic, Ty Dellandrea and Riley Tufte. Players with limited ceilings are Luke Glendening, Tanner Kero, Rhett Gardner and Nick Caamano.

Glendening is one of the best face-off artists (58.7%) in the league on a Stars team that was one of the best in the NHL, but he will probably not score 10 goals or put up 20 points. Dellandrea is 21-years-old and should get a full season with the Stars next year and could be pencilled in the top-six as his ceiling is the highest of this lot. Dellandrea had 23 goals and 27 assists in 68 games with Texas of the AHL.

Kiviranta, Studenic and Tufte are on the bubble and will need to show some improvement in order to keep their jobs next season.

At center, the Stars are solid with Roope Hintz, who finished last season with 37 goals and 35 assists in 80 games after a slow start. Hintz will be an RFA after the 2022-23 season and will be in line for a pretty good raise from the $4.45 million he will earn this season.

Behind Hintz are Jamie Benn, Radek Faksa, Jacob Peterson and Riley Damiani as well as prospects Wyatt Johnston, Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven. Benn has become a 40-50 point guy, while Faksa has three years remaining on his five-year $3.25 million AAV contract as the designated checking line center for the Stars who will be hard-pressed to score 10 goals in a season. Peterson has some offensive upside as evidenced by his 12 goals in 65 games, but needs work on his overall play. Damiani could be the fourth-line center if they move Peterson to the wing.

On defence, Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell are very solid pillars on the backend and signed long-term with Heiskanen signed at $8.45 million AAV until 2029 and Lindell signed at $5.8 million AAV until 2025. Heiskanen is only 22-years-old and even though he set a career-high in points with 36 in 70 games, we are waiting on him to replicate his 26 points in 27 games from the 2019-20 playoffs. The 28-year-old Lindell has settled into 25-30 points and 100 hits and 100 blocked shots each season.

If Klingberg isn't re-signed, the next tier of defence is Ryan Suter at 37-years of age who is signed for three more years at $3.65 million AAV and Jani Hakanpaa who is signed for two more years at $1.5 million AAV. Maybe Suter can put together one or two more years like last season, but three would be a stretch. The 30-year-old Hakanpaa has established himself as an NHL player after two full seasons and is a hitting machine with 248 last year to go along with 112 blocked shots. 16-18 minutes per night is in his wheelhouse.

The 20-year-old Thomas Harley was the 18th overall pick in 2019 and was eased into the lineup this year by the Stars averaging around 13 minutes per game in the 34 he played. He should be a 100-hit, 100 blocked shot defender that should contribute offensively in two or three years. He's going to be a good defender that should be top-four for many years. 

The rest of the depth at defence is with journeyman Joel Hanley (30) and unproven AHLers, Riley Shea (24), Benjamin Gleason (24) and Jerad Rosburg (25). The Stars will certainly add one or two players to their back-end depth through trade or free agency.

It's hard to believe that the Stars went out and signed Braden Holtby at the beginning of this season, with Jake Oettinger and Anton Khudobin both under contract. It looked like a brilliant move early in the season, as Holtby was lights out for a month, but slowed considerably when he was injured. Oettinger is clearly the starter moving forward after his playoff performance and now the question remains, who will be his backup? Khudobin is still under contract for next season with Adam Scheel (24) a possibility if they don't look outside the organization.

Dallas could be in the mix for the playoffs next season but they will need healthy seasons from Hintz and Seguin as well as a breakout year from Heiskanen and continued progression from Oettinger to get there.

This team will need to address their depleted prospect pool on defence sooner than later.

Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.