Calgary had a great regular season and they made it to the second round of the playoffs before losing in five games to Edmonton. Although the loss to Edmonton was a blow, the team took a significant step forward in 2021-22. From the outside, it looks like there is a two-year window for this current roster and that is assuming that they re-sign Johnny Gaudreau, Andrew Mangiapane and Matthew Tkachuk. Contracts expiring at the end of 2023-24 are Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev at which point they all become UFAs.

GM and Coach

Brad Treliving has been the GM in Calgary since April 2014. In his eight seasons, the Flames have a record of 324-238-56 with a winning percentage of 0.570. They have missed the playoffs three times and made it to the second round three times, losing each time.

Darryl Sutter is entering the last year of his contract and has been the coach of the Flames for just over a year. His record is 65-36-11 with the Flames in his most recent foray there. He won a career-high 50 regular-season games this year. The loss to Edmonton takes a little shine off of his glow, where he could do little wrong. It will be interesting if the Flames extend him this off-season.

Salary Cap

Next season, Calgary has just under $27 million in salary cap room to re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane and Oliver Kylington as well as replace or re-sign Erik Gudbranson, Michael Stone, Nikita Zadorov, Ryan Carpenter, Calle Jarnkrok, Trevor Lewis and Brett Ritchie.

Draft Picks

The Flames mortgaged their entry draft in 2022 and only have three of their seven picks in the second, fifth and seventh rounds.

In 2023 and 2024 they have ten of their original 14 picks with their third and fifth-round picks in 2023 and their fifth and seventh-round picks in 2024 traded away.

Overall they have 13 of their original 21 picks still over the next three drafts.

Free Agents

Unrestricted free agents are Johnny Gaudreau (28), Ryan Carpenter (31), Calle Jarnkrok (30), Trevor Lewis (35), Brett Ritchie (28), Erik Gudbranson (30), Michael Stone (31) and Nikita Zadorov (27).

Gaudreau is the key and after posting 115 points, one would think his salary would be north of $10 million AAV, but he might take a bit of a discount to return to Calgary. There aren't many contending teams that can afford him either.

Calgary had seasons out of Gudbranson and Zadorov that might have exceeded expectations, but I'm not sure the Flames want to shell out the $5.6 million both those players got last season for more than one or two more years.

I don't think Carpenter will return and I doubt Jarnkrok will come in under $2 million AAV, but if one or all of Lewis, Ritchie or Stone sign for the league minimum they could be back again.

Restricted free agents are Matthew Tkachuk (24), Andrew Mangiapane (26), Oliver Kylington (25), Adam Ruzicka (24) and Tyler Parsons (24).

Between Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Mangiapane, I'm going to guess they are a $23 to 25 million cap hit moving forward. They don't have the option to bridge Tkachuk or Mangiapane and 35-goal scorers don't come cheaply, so they might be looking at $9 million, $9 million and 5 million for the three.

That would only leave the Flames with about $4 million next season to fill another six or seven roster spots. I don't think all three will be back next season unless another roster player with a significant salary is traded out. It looks like Sean Monahan and his $6.375 million will be on the books next year as he should be healthy for the start of the season.

Roster

I'm going to include Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Mangiapane in the projected roster below. With a 6.48 rating, the Flames are significantly weaker on defence (especially with Chris Tanev out for the first few months).

Last week, I mentioned that there weren't many better lines than the top line in Dallas. Tkachuk, Gaudreau and Lindholm might be one of them. The line combined for 124 goals and all three had 40-goal seasons, to go along with 301 points. The 40-40-40 club was the first time the NHL had seen that since 1993-94 when ironically it was Gary Roberts, Theo Fleury and Robert Reichel achieving it with Calgary.

The Flames are fairly deep at wing, with Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Blake Coleman, Dillon Dube and Tyler Toffoli all capable of 20 or more goals.

It will be a tough feat for any of Gaudreau, Tkachuk or Mangiapane to duplicate their 2021-22 seasons, but 90-point years for Gaudreau and Tkachuk and 25-30 goals for Mangiapane are just fine for the Flames next year.

At $4.9 million AAV, Coleman seems expensive on the surface for a player who gets 15-20 goals and 35-40 points but like teammate Mikael Backlund, his contributions go beyond points. Toffoli can be a streaky scorer and can get 30 goals per year but has only got there once in 2015-16 (he did have 28 goals in 52 games in the truncated 2020-21). At $4.25 million AAV for two more years, I think his name might be on the lips of the Flames management if they need to move out some salary before the start of the year.

Milan Lucic has one more year under contract at a $6 million cap hit. He is still a popular player in Calgary, but his salary is an issue obviously. Buying him out is not an option as Calgary would only save $666k next year, so trading him might be on the table. His trade clause goes from eight teams to 10 teams he can be traded to on July 1st. They'd have to sweeten the pot to trade him, so a prospect might be in play to entice another team on his list.

After that, the team doesn't have much depth, with Walker Duehr (24) and Matthew Phillips (24) on the bubble and prospects Connor Zary (20), Mattias Emilio Pettersen (22), Jakob Pelletier (21), Rory Kerins (20) and Martin Pospisil (22) ready to compete for one or two spots on the wing. Pelletier seems to be the readiest after his 27 goals and 35 assists in 66 games in the AHL last year and could make a splash next season.

At center, the Flames are set with Lindholm and Backlund for the next two seasons, but a lot rests on the recovery of Sean Monahan and where his mobility and strength are at next season for how this position shapes up for Calgary. Monahan is entering the last year of his $6.375 million contract this season.

With Jarnkrok, Carpenter and Lewis unlikely to return, the Flames might look towards Adam Ruzicka (23) who played 28 games last year with five goals and five assists and probably showed enough to earn a chance. Zary, Pettersen and Kerins from above all play center as well. The Flames will surely look to add two to three free-agent forwards to bolster their depth at center and wing.

Noah Hanifin (25) had an excellent season with 10 goals and 38 points in 81 games while Rasmus Andersson (25) hit 50 points on defence. These two head the list of defenders in Calgary and should for at least the next two seasons at which time Hanifin becomes unrestricted. After the season Hanifin had, he's pushed himself into a higher salary bracket than the $4.95 million AAV he currently earns.

Chris Tanev (32)played 82 games this year, which is the first time he has played more than 70 games in a year. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder injury and needs surgery and could be out until January 2023. Being without Tanev for 35-45 games is a huge hit for this team coupled with the unlikeliness of Gudbranson (30), Zadorov (27)and Michael Stone (31) being back.

Oliver Kylington (25) is next on the depth chart at number three or four but only averaged just over 18 minutes per game in a year that saw him with nine goals and 22 assists in 73 games. He did play more than 19 minutes in 23 games and had four goals and six assists and was a plus-nine. He is capable of playing more minutes.

After Kylington it gets interesting with Connor Mackey (25), Juuso Valimaki (23) and Johannes Kinnvall (24) pencilled in for the four to six spots with a combined 12 games in the NHL last season. Ilya Solovyov (21), Yan Kuznetsov (20) and Jeremie Poirier (20) are the other options but unlikely. The Flames are going to have to add two or three NHL-caliber defenders through free agency or trade.

Valimaki is the surest bet named above as he has 82 games of NHL experience and was the 16th overall pick in 2017.

In goal, Jacob Markstrom (32) had an excellent regular season with 37 wins in 62 games and a 2.22 GAA and a 92.2 save percentage and a career-best 19.11 GSAA. He looked tired in the 12 games he played in the playoffs where he had a 2.95 GAA and a save percentage of 90.1 and was outplayed by Jake Oettinger and Mike Smith. I've said this before but 60 games for Markstrom is too many in the regular season and he should be around 50-55 to be his best in the playoffs. Markstrom is signed at $6 million AAV until the end of the 2025-26 season.

Dan Vladar (24) needs to gain the confidence of Darryl Sutter next season so that Markstrom doesn't play 60 games. He just needs to be average and he should get 30-35 games next season. He was a little below average with a minus 2.89 GSAA this year and only played 23 games.

Calgary has Dustin Wolf (21) in the mix as well. Wolf has exceeded expectations in his AHL rookie season and has played 47 games with a 2.35 GAA and a 92.4 save percentage in the regular season and eight games in the playoffs with a 2.20 GAA and a 93.1 save percentage.

Tyler Parsons (24) has missed all of the 2021-22 season and most of the 2020-21 season with an ankle injury but he has also had his fair share of concussions during his career. I just hope he is able to get back on the ice at some point and get his career back on track.

The Flames are in tough to get back to 50 wins next season, even if they re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Mangiapane. Their roster just isn't as strong on paper as it was, and it is unlikely for those three to duplicate what they did last season. If any of those three don't come back, this team could be in playoff trouble.

Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.