We got a brief update on the statuses of Filip Chytil and Ryan Strome from Rangers coach Gerard Gallant. Strome missed Game 4, being a scratch, while Chytil left the game two-thirds of the way through after taking a hard hit in the corner. This was said update:

GG says there's no update on Strome and Chytil. Both are GTDs, he said.

— Colin Stephenson (@ColinSNewsday) June 8, 2022

Now, in the playoffs, we rarely get anything definitive. But that he says game-time decisions rather than what he said about Sammy Blais (doubtful for the series) is better news than it could have been. I suppose we'll find out for Game 5 tonight back in New York.

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We got an update on what was bothering Leon Draisaitl:

Holland confirms high-ankle sprain for Draisaitl

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) June 8, 2022

Considering his playoff performance, this was an amazing postseason from Dr. Drai. It's also good that he might only need a month or two off before being back at full strength, if all goes well.

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A couple days ago in these Ramblings, I covered some pending restricted free agents, specifically Kevin Fiala, Andrew Mangiapane, Dominik Kubalik, and Denis Gurianov. As was pointed out, I made a pretty significant mistake in thinking Rick Bowness was still the Dallas coach. I updated the Ramblings in the morning with that edit, but he was let go while I was on vacation, and I check my phone as little as possible when I have a chance to vacation. Apologies to the readers. I like to think I'm up-to-date on NHL news and that one slipped past me.

However, I want to keep talking about RFA players. One reason is these are typically players that are still growing or are just starting to hit their respective primes. That can present great opportunities at the draft table, particularly in keeper or dynasty formats. We had one re-sign on Tuesday in Jack Roslovic, who got a two-year deal from Columbus that will walk him right to unrestricted free agency. We'll start with him, but we will talk about some others as well. Data from Natural Stat Trick and our Frozen Tools and will be at 5-on-5, unless otherwise indicated. Cap information from Cap Friendly.

Jack Roslovic

It kind of looked like Roslovic's career was dead in the water back in Winnipeg, posting 67 points in 180 games, never averaging more than 15 minutes in any season. He even averaged under 10 minutes a game back in 2018-19. But he was traded to Columbus as part of the Patrik Laine swap and responded with a career-best 34 points in just 48 games. He followed that up with 45 points in 81 games in 2021-22, though his ice time took another hit compared to his first season with the Blue Jackets. So, what kind of player is he and what might we expect from him?

The first thing we need to note about Roslovic's campaign this year is how his ice time was allotted. Over his first 58 games, up to March 11^th, he averaged just 12:24 a game. From March 12^th onward, that skyrocketed to a shade over 19 minutes a night. What changed was Boone Jenner being injured and missing the final third of the season. Jenner was over 20 minutes a night for them and the minutes had to go somewhere. So, yes, Roslovic was over 14 minutes a game – passable in deeper fantasy leagues – but that was a function of injuries elsewhere on the roster. If Jenner is healthy, we can't expect 19 minutes for the American centre. Even 17 a night would be a big improvement, but there is also Cole Sillinger developing as well. (It should be noted that Roslovic had 19 points in 23 games over that Jenner-less stretch. Pretty not bad!)

As for his actual performance, Roslovic started to make good on some of the promise he showed in a depth role with Winnipeg. From CJ Turtoro's viz – based off Corey Sznajder's tracking data – the 25-year-old pivot's zone exit percentage with control, zone entry percentage with control, and shot assists were all in the 70^th percentile of the league

There were the makings of a good playmaking centre here, but he had trouble showing that off playing third- and fourth-line minutes for the Jets. In his first season with Columbus, he led the team in controlled zone entry%, which is something that can lead to higher-quality shots for teammates, and more sustained pressure. He also led the team in shot assists per 60 minutes, which is something that builds off those controlled zone entries. This past season, he was second in zone entry%, trailing Jakub Voracek, and third in shot assists/60 minutes, behind Voracek and Gustav Nyquist. His issue is that all this wasn't leading to a lot of scoring chances, not even finishing top-5 on the team in scoring chances generated following those zone entries. That persisted in 2021-22 as he was again outside the top-5 of the team, this time in scoring chance assists. In other words, all that great transition work, and even his shot assists, weren't leading to many dangerous shots.

But we have to wonder how much of it is about the team. They were playing a more offensive-minded system under coach Brad Larsen, but they were still just 24^th in scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, behind teams like the Islanders, Ducks, and Sharks. Here's the kicker, though: Columbus generated more scoring chances with Roslovic on the ice than anyone else, and 3.1 actual goals per 60 minutes. That is a higher on-ice goal rate, comparing league-wide, than John Tavares, J.T. Miller, and Patrick Kane.

I do think Roslovic has good playmaking upside. The team around him is improving offensively, and he's long been good in transition and finding teammates. His issues are ice time and role. If he plays 15 minutes a night with secondary PP time, he's unlikely to explode in the fantasy game. That means something like 15-20 goals and 30-35 assists, if all goes well, with middling peripherals. Not really great production. But if he takes another step, and can start eating into Jenner's minutes (his back injuries have unfortunately persisted for most of his career), 60+ points is very possible.   

Victor Olofsson

Olofsson is a curious player. He had a great AHL season in 2018-19, managed 20 goals in 54 games with the Sabres in 2019-20, but hasn't surpassed that goal total since. My issue with him was that he seemed like a shot bot; think someone like Luke Kunin or Dominik Kubalik. If he's not getting his (very good) shot off, he didn't seem to be doing much else. From Evolving Hockey, he had trouble driving the play, or playing defence, over his first three seasons:

In his first full season, 2019-20, he was well below the 50^th percentile in zone entries and exits, and below the 60^th percentile in shot assists; there's a reason why he wasn't driving the play. That persisted in the shortened 2021 season where he was below the league average.

However, those zone entries improved in 2021-22 under coach Don Granato. After finishing with 44% controlled zone entries in 2019-20, and 47% in COVID 2021, he jumped over 54% this season. Not elite, and well outside the top-6 among Sabres forwards, but above the league average, and by far the best mark of his career. This team isn't deep enough (yet) to sustain high scoring rates when he's off the top line, but the team scored 3.4 goals per 60 minutes when he was skating with Tage Thompson (just 2.2 goals per 60 without him). Should they want to do what they did at the end of the season, and that's move one of Alex Tuch or Jeff Skinner to the second line, Olofsson could be a very good fantasy option. It would also depend on his power-play role, and they do have good developing prospects like Jack Quinn and J.J. Peterka. In that sense, Olofsson is in the same boat as Roslovic; improved TOI rates and his role will determine whether he's viable in most fantasy leagues, or waiver fodder. The lack of PIMs and hits are an issue, too.

Compounding Olofsson's problem is that Buffalo has a lot of cap space. Maybe they make a big splash in free agency like, say, a Filip Forsberg or a Johnny Gaudreau. Perhaps even a centre like Vincent Trocheck or Nazem Kadri. That would likely eliminate the potential for PP1 minutes, and a big-ticket winger could mean muted ice time rates. We will see what the summer brings, but with the right role, he has 30-goal potential.

Sonny Milano

Here we have a player whose NHL career I thought was coming to an end. He had just 47 points in 131 career games heading into 2021-22, skating just over 12 minutes a night. Going into his age-25 season, it really did seem like break-out-or-bust for Milano. He chose the former, posting a career-best 34 points in 66 games. He did shoot 14.9%, but had been a career 13.7% shooter to that point, so not really out of line. How did he do it, and what can we expect moving forward? Let's dig in.

The thing with Milano is that, like Roslovic, he had good transition and playmaking rates early in his career. From 2017-2020, he was inside the 70^th percentile in shot assists and controlled zone exits, and the 64^th percentile in controlled zone entries. They are not the be-all, end-all, but they are good indicators of offensive potential, and he never got extended looks in the Columbus top-6. And, as mentioned earlier, the Blue Jackets were much more defensive-minded then than they are now under Brad Larsen. But he was moved to Anaheim, and it seems things have started to click.

This is a viz, again from Corey Sznajder's tracking data, that shows how good he was at playmaking this year. The Y-axis shows scoring chance assists per 60 minutes in 2021-22, and he was among the best in the league in his sample:

What the issue here is his performance playing away from Trevor Zegras. Anaheim's scoring chances fell over 20% when he was skating without the star rookie, and actual goals fell by 36%. My intuition tells me that it's a function of a lack of scoring depth, as the team scored 2.81 goals/60 with Zegras on the ice and just 2.1 goals/60 with him off the ice. Troy Terry's emergence and the likely roster insertion of Mason McTavish should help, but it's still an open question.

In the fantasy game, Milano's biggest problem is a lack of peripherals. His 82-game paces for shots and hits were 116 and 34, respectively. Even if he continues to progress, and puts up 20 goals and 50 points, doing so with little peripherals doesn't mean a lot in multi-cat leagues. It'll be hard to progress if he sticks around 15 minutes a night, too. But there could be a solid points-only league option here if he can stick in the top-6 with adequate power-play time.

Artturi Lehkonen

The last guy we're talking about today just punched his team's ticket to the Stanley Cup Final for the second year in a row. Lehkonen is a very interesting player because he resembles a teammate of his in Valeri Nichushkin, and the latter's future is very much entwined with the former's.

Colorado has $26M in cap space this summer but they also have just six NHL-ready forwards signed for 2022-23, including Alex Newhook. All of Kadri, Nichushkin, and Andre Burakovsky are UFAs, as is goaltender Darcy Kuemper. They're also just a year away from the impending monster Nathan MacKinnon extension. They may have to let Nichushkin walk, in which case Lehkonen could be a cheaper replacement.

The comparison, I think, is apt, too. Here is how they performed this season by offensive/defensive play-driving, again from Evolving Hockey:

One was better than the other, but Lehkonen still had a very good season. But this was a change for Lehkonen. For most of his career, his defence was very good, but the offensive play driving was lacking. It is a new wrinkle in his profile, and it's worth looking into what changed here.

From 2017-2020, back in Montreal, Lehkonen had great shot rates – inside the 80^th percentile – but his controlled zone entry% was the 37^th percentile. That is very poor, and speaks to why his offensive play driving never thrived. That was the case again in the shortened 2021 campaign, again with the Habs.

We are at the point where we have to talk about Montreal's system. I wrote a week ago about how Montreal was focused too much on dump-and-chase hockey and how it hurt Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. It stands to reason it hurt Lehkonen, too.  The problem persisted in 2021-22 under Ducharme, but Lehkonen improved as a playmaker, of sorts. He had similar scoring chance assists, and individual scoring chance rates, to now-teammate Mikko Rantanen, and breakout star Troy Terry. That was also a new wrinkle for him, but it would help explain, in part, why all his Montreal teammates generated more expected goals with him on the ice.

In sum, we have a player who performed kind of like Evan Rodrigues, on whom I wrote extensively a month ago. Rodrigues had generally been good defensively for his career, but his offence took off in 2021-22, namely his scoring chance generation. Lehkonen followed a similar path. In that sense, we don't know if this is a one-off, or a sign of more things to come. But if he can stick in Colorado, learning from guys like MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Cale Makar, in a high-paced offensive system, he could stand a good chance of having that success continue.

In the fantasy game, Lehkonen will be in tough for high-end performance. He is not a lock for top PP minutes with the Avs. However, he generally has good shot rates for his career, so 16-17 minutes a night could see him reach 20 goals and 45 points for the first time in his career. With good hit rates, there's a solid depth multi-cat player waiting here, if he can build off this season. We will have to see what Colorado decides to do, and he may have an inflated ADP if Nichushkin is let go. This is a situation to monitor closely this summer.