Ramblings: Oilers Looking Ahead to Next Season, Pastrnak Trade Rumors (June 10)
Ian Gooding
2022-06-11
The general opinion of people that I talk hockey with (not necessarily from a fantasy perspective) seems to be that the Oilers need to move on from Mike Smith. Although Smith can look like a world beater at times, it's those gaffs resulting from his tendency to take risks that stand out. During the first two rounds, Smith posted a decent 2.70 GAA and a very strong .927 SV%. However, the Avalanche exposed him to a 5.57 GAA and .872 SV% in their four-game sweep.
I'm not sure what the Oilers will decide to do with their goaltending situation this offseason. Although Mikko Koskinen is set to become a UFA (and is rumored to be signing in Europe), Smith is under contract for one more season. Smith is reportedly contemplating retirement, but barring a significant change or signing, the Oilers might have to make do with a Smith/Stuart Skinner pairing next season.
If Smith ends up staying on, I might revisit his situation during Bubble Keeper Week. Although I very nearly dropped him during the season, Smith was instrumental in me earning a fantasy championship during the final week of the season while Frederik Andersen was sidelined and Ville Husso was facing tough matchups. Smith has proven he can be a superb option in certain situations, and his numbers might even be okay when spread out over an entire season. But he's anything but a "set it and forget it" option, and he is certainly not for the faint of heart.
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Speaking of players that you might have rolled the dice on this season… There's a very good chance that many fantasy championship teams, both regular season and playoffs, included Evander Kane.
Aside from maybe Johnny Gaudreau, I think the most interesting free agent out there is Kane. The projections for his next contract seem to be wildly varying. But if the above report is true, then the free agency period is really and truly silly season. If Kane didn't have all his off-ice issues, do you think teams should be lining up to offer him a seven- or eight-year contract? He will certainly be earning more than $2 million per season – that I believe strongly. Even with his track record.
By the way, at the time the playoffs were finished for the Oilers, Kane led all players in goals (13), penalty minutes (37), and hits (73). If Kane is a keeper of yours, you have to hope he signs with the Oilers. Not that he was a bad player with any of his prior teams, but we saw that he could absolutely maximize his value with the Oilers. His 0.91 PTS/GP in 43 regular-season games was the highest point-per-game output of his career. Playing on a line with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl (or perhaps both!) will do that.
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One more Oiler, and it's the top Frozen Tools search for Friday. If the 2021-22 regular season was reassuring for those invested in Jesse Puljujarvi, then the 2021-22 playoffs might be viewed as a step back. Pool Party finished the playoffs with a paltry three points in 16 games with his icetime down to 10 minutes per game and his power-play severely minimized. When Brett Kulak and Cody Ceci outscore you in the playoffs, that's not going to do wonders for your fantasy stock.
Puljujarvi was the beneficiary of a strong start, roaring out of the gate with seven goals and 16 points in his first 20 games – a 65-point pace over a full season. We thought he'd finally arrived. After that, he was held to just 20 points in 45 games, a period that included a stint in COVID protocol and a lower-body injury that forced him to miss 12 games. The acquisition of Kane hurt Puljujarvi more on the power play than it did at even strength, as his Quarter 4 power-play time on ice was similar to his playoff number. Kane actually skated with Puljujarvi at even strength during that time.
If Kane leaves, then Puljujarvi could start to earn some of those power-play minutes back. Yet as it would stand, it'll probably be on the second unit, as a Connor McDavid – Leon Draisaitl – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Zach Hyman first unit seems to be the way the Oilers would go. Puljujarvi might still be a year or two away from reaching his upside as a power forward, but that upside isn't nearly as high as it was when he was drafted.
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After being a model for stability for years, the Boston Bruins are suddenly a team facing the winds of change this offseason. Much of that is due to circumstance, based on the injuries to Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy and the potential retirement of Patrice Bergeron. Yet suddenly these developments mean that David Pastrnak seems much less likely to sign long-term with the Bruins.
Pastrnak is in the same boat as J.T. Miller in that he has one year remaining on his contract. Like the Canucks with Miller, if the Bruins can't come to terms with Pastrnak long term, then they might as well try to shop him so that they don't risk losing him for nothing if he is not traded by next summer. One report on The Athletic (subscription required) even cites an inside source that believes Pastrnak has no chance of re-signing with the Bruins, given the way that Pastrnak's close friends Torey Krug and David Krejci were allowed to move on without much incentive to return to the Bruins.
Pastrnak is a cornerstone player on a keeper league team of mine that just won a championship, so this story bears watching for me personally. Pastrnak is a two-time 40-goal scorer with a cap hit of under $7 million, so there would be a lot of potential suitors, some of which would feel confident enough that they could sign him long-term. Pastrnak has been on one of the league's most productive lines with Bergeron and Marchand dating back to 2016-17 (according to Frozen Tools data). The downside of a trade is that he may not find a similarly productive line arrangement with a new team.
If Pastrnak is on your team, don't panic and sell all of your shares because his linemates are disappearing or he might get traded. I said the same about Marchand earlier, and it's even more important to take the long view on Pastrnak because he's only 26. This developing Bruins news is simply something to pay attention to during the offseason.
Should Pastrnak, Marchand, or any other Bruins be ranked higher or lower in the Top 100 Roto Rankings? Leave feedback, and I will consider it when I publish the rankings for June in a few days.
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The salary cap has necessitated some bizarre transactions over the years, and it appears this season will be no different. The Sabres have acquired Ben Bishop's contract and a seventh-round pick from the Stars in exchange for good ol' future considerations. The trade helps the Sabres not only because they add another draft pick, but also so that they have an easier time reaching the cap floor. This trade might also serve as a hint that Buffalo won't be a huge spender this offseason, perhaps instead sticking to their rebuild plan.
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