Ramblings – Looking at some RFA’s – Who Stays, Who Goes and More… (June 13)

Dobber

2022-06-13

Hard at work on the Fantasy Prospects Report, which will come out the afternoon of June 14. It is the 16th edition and has been an invaluable resource for keeper and dynasty leaguers. You can pre-order it here.

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The Stanley Cup Final: Defending Stanley Cup Champions versus the Juggernaut. The team that just can't be put down, against the team that can't be stopped. This will be a good one, made more interesting by the fact that Brayden Point will be back for Tampa Bay (probably) and Nazem Kadri is out for the series for Colorado (probably). That certainly balances the scales. The Lightning have the obvious edge in goaltending and experience, and probably coaching as well. The Avalanche are deeper, have better offense and a more mobile defense.

On a lesser note, Andrew Cogliano is out for the series as well. Really feel for the Cogliano and Kadri, as they miss out. And with finger and thumb injuries, respectively, can they even hold the Cup above their head?

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Andrei Vasilevskiy just won the series for Tampa Bay, but those six games proved to me that Igor Shesterkin is, indeed, better.

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A lot of talk about this year's crop of UFA's, but not enough talk about the restricted variety of free agent. Let's take a look at some interesting restricted free agents (RFA) and what's ahead for them.

Patrik Laine: Needs a Qualifying Offer (QO) of $7.5M. He'll get that. I don't think he deserves a raise and I don't think he'll be poached by another team. He may file for arbitration to get more though.

Matthew Tkachuk: Needs a QO of $9M. Ouch. But he'll get that for sure. I don't think he'll go to arbitration when he's already going to make a ton.

Brock Boeser:  needs a QO of $7.5M and I think the Canucks have to do it.

Kevin Fiala: needs a $5.1 QO and the Wild will give that to him. But he won't sign it, and therein lies Minnesota's problem. I think they work hard on trying to keep him, but it may not be feasible.

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There is a good chance that the following players do not receive a QO from their team and thus become unrestricted free agents, able to sign with any team:

Dominik Kubalik ($4M), Dylan Strome ($3.6M), Miles Wood ($3.5M)

There is a 'small' chance, but still a chance, that the following players also don't receive a QO from their team and become UFAs:

Alexandar Georgiev ($2.65M), Ethan Bear ($2.5M)

So be on the lookout for these names and be prepared to add them to your UFA list when the market opens on July 13.

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In an unexpected move, Vitali Kravtsov has signed a contract with the Rangers. Kravtsov has been fighting with the team for a couple of years now about his ice time and about being sent to the minors. His agent is, of course, Dan Milstein, who is at the center of pretty much all the player disputes we see. Kravtsov feels entitled to a roster spot and while I agree he has fantastic upside, even he has to see that he's done nothing special. He's 22 years old now, so perhaps he can make his mark for them in the fall. He signed for almost the league minimum and it was a one-way deal, so he 'should' make the squad this time around. Kravtsov's prospect profile here.

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Interesting prospects who have signed in the past few days to return to Europe:

Dmitry Zavgorodny (CGY), Ilya Konovalov (EDM) were each released from their contract. Konovalov was a prospect I actually valued, given Edmonton's lack of depth in net.

Joachim Blichfeld (SJS) – A one-dimensional offensive player who loves to shoot the puck. Lack of defensive acumen cost him an NHL stint last season, though he did play five games a year ago. He led San Jose's minor-league team the Barracuda in points in two of the last three seasons and is only 23 years old. He signed to play in the SHL.

Josef Korenar (ARI) – Off to Czechia he goes. He had horrible season. Couldn't have gone worse. He lost the backup role to Karel Vejmelka (and we know what happened from there), and then with Tucson his numbers were horrible. He's 24 years old and while I understand the frustration – the fact is that he got into 12 NHL games in his career already. Goalies start NHL careers later than skaters, and if he's going to chase an NHL dream, that dream honestly should start now. Age 24 to 27 is the sweet spot. Korenar was probably miserable getting peppered by pucks in Tucson, taking beating after beating.

Otto Somppi (TBL) – Well, after the season he just had, he was pretty much written off even the deepest fantasy leagues anyway. The 24-year-old Somppi will return to Finland next season.

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With the Fantasy Prospects Report coming out in two (2!!) days, I'm hard at work reading through all the profiles and adjusting my template today (Sunday). The plan is to finish up all my adjustments, rank the players, and then post the Rankings here on the site Monday. Then I take those rankings and put them into the FPR for each player profile, and finish up all the charts, etc. Needless to say, quite busy – so the Ramblings are short. As a bit of filler a teaser, I'll post some excerpts from the Prospects Report, snippets from our two Cup finalists:

And here's a player from the Tampa Bay section (as you can see, there is a blank beside the “2022” part, which is what I’m working on for Monday)…

– 3YP is the player's 'likely' production if he becomes a full-time NHLer. It represents what the average of his three best seasons will be, best guess.

– Upside is if everything aligns perfectly for him. He doesn't get hurt, makes the most of his opportunities, clicks on a line with that team's best player and continues on that line into the prime of his career. Most players never hit this upside, but some do. This is the best-case scenario.

Now picture this write-up and breakdown for about 500 prospects. Plus profiles on all the key draftees, a Mock Draft, many player ranking charts and more! Prospects Report – order here.

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See you next Monday.

One Comment

  1. Striker 2022-06-13 at 09:25

    Not qualifying D. Strome at 3.6 makes ZERO sense to me. From Jan. 1, 2022, on he played as Chi”s #1 C and went from barely playing if playing at all to the penthouse. From Jan. 1, 22 on he posted 19 goals & 41 points in his final 49 games. He’s also monster class having only played 273 NHL regular-season games. Although I don’t think that NHL teams are using my development model.

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