Forum Buzz: Suzuki vs. Larkin; Raymond vs. Debrincat; Managing Huberdeau, Robertson, Lafreniere, Kreider & More

Rick Roos

2022-06-15

Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1In a multi-cat keeper league that favors scoring, who's the better own: Nick Suzuki or Dylan Larkin?

I really like both of these guys, as they're unquestioned #1 centers on teams that have nowhere to go but up when it comes to offense. The Habs are worse than the Wings now, and have a bigger climb; however, it wasn't that long ago that Detroit seemed to be in the same position as Montreal. Suffice it to say, both should be cornerstone keepers for the next decade. But which of the two is better? Let's see if we can dig deep enough to figure out the answer, noting that I won't look at other multi-cat stats since those weren't specified, although even if they were neither is markedly better than the other if considering traditional categories.

Larkin's SOG rate has held steady for several seasons, and his SH% was elevated in 2021-22 versus his career number. But Larkin was remarkably consistent during 2021-22, with 18-20 games, 19-21 points, and 55-59 SOG in each of the first three quarters of 2021-22. To me, that firmly establishes him as a point per game downside player, with room for more if his team improves, which it should in the normal course, helping him not just overall but in particular on the man advantage, where he had only 13 PPPts in 71 games. However, his consistency might cut against him becoming more than a 90-point player at his peak.

As for Suzuki, on the surface it looks like he treaded water from 2020-21 to 2021-22, with his scoring rate inching upward from 60 to 61. Yet let's keep in mind Montreal's goals per game dropped from 2.82 to 2.66, so him holding steady actually indicates he did better under the circumstances. Beyond that, Suzuki managed 20 PPPts in 82 games, which is a solid number in and of itself but one that's all the more impressive considering his team potted just 34 PPGs in total. Moreover, Suzuki finished with 36 points in his final 33 games despite defenses keying on his line and lack of much of a supporting cast other than Cole Caufield. Plus, Suzuki not only has room for more PPPts based on his rate of factoring into PPGs, but his SOG rate seemingly can still increase more so than Larkin's. On top of all of that, game #1 of 2022-23 will be Suzuki's 210th, making it so he's right at his breakout threshold, which Larkin has long since already passed.

I think Suzuki has better home run potential than Larkin given what Suzuki managed to do in the second half of 2021-22 and without the supporting case that Larkin already had. Suzuki still might be comparable to Larkin in the near term – comparable enough that I believe he's the one to own of the two for now and for the future.

Topic #2In a keeper league where a team is in win now mode, what are the factors when deciding whether to keep the first overall pick or to trade it, where, in this case, the possible players who could be acquired for the first overall pick are Roman Josi, Elias Lindholm, Jason Robertson, Jordan Kyrou, or Oliver Bjorkstrand?

Not being told other details about the league makes it tougher to answer this question, as things like number of teams, roster sizes, number of keepers, starters at each position, whether there is a minor/farm, and even categories would all be useful to know. Still, there is some general advice I'm able to convey.

First off, I'm not a huge fan of the term "win now." I understand what it means and why people use it; however, usually several teams in a league will be in win now mode. We can't make the mistake that win now means winning is necessarily going to occur. One question all GMs should ask if in this type of situation is how often they've been in the thick of it to win, versus how often they've possessed the first overall draft pick. If a team has been in the mix to win quite often, then chances are that means they're likely better than most teams in their league, meaning they might want to keep the top pick to help fill their cupboards and rely upon their apparent skill advantage to win via shrewd drafting and trades. On the other hand, if a team regularly has picked first overall but not been a favorite upon entering a season, then doing what it can to try and win might become more of a priority than it would be to others for whom that has been a regular occurrence.

Let's also not forget that the first overall pick is not always a fantasy home run. In fact, after a run of players picked first overall who paid dividends quickly, the last five to be grabbed first overall were Owen Power, Alexis Lafreniere, Jack Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, and Nico Hischier. While Hughes looked like he made the leap last season before getting hurt and Dahlin seems to have the tools to succeed, the jury is very much out on Lafreniere, and Hischier might never be a point per gamer, while Power's offensive upside is uncertain.

As for the five players who could be obtained, I think Kyrou and Bjorkstrand can be ruled out, as Kyrou doesn't get the ice time necessary to thrive, while Bjorkstrand runs too hot and cold. As for Lindholm, he's solid; but even if the top line in Calgary stays intact, he was the one of the trio who scored the fewest points. Josi was superb in 2021-22 and we've seen from the likes of John Carlson and Victor Hedman that defensemen can stay productive into their early thirties; but those guys play for teams with more potent offenses and we can't look past Josi having been a 56-62 point player in six of his prior eight seasons.

That leaves Robertson, who I'd say is the most intriguing. He was already better than a point per gamer and that was despite not getting heaps of ice time – at ES or on the PP – under Rick Bowness and not yet hitting his breakout threshold. In fact, fewer than a handful of players had a higher points per 60 minutes than Robertson despite a lower points per game rate, with one of them ironically being Kyrou, and even fewer had less PPPts, owing to Robertson taking the ice for just 2:41 per game with the man advantage. A new coach is likely to lean on Robertson a lot more, with his scoring, in turn, seeing a major boost.

Ask yourself this – how many first overall picks will give a team better than what Robertson stands to bring to the table? In the case that they do end up surpassing Robertson, how long would it even take? I think Robertson's youth and already great performance without superb ice time is enough to merit trading away a first overall pick for a team that sees a viable path to victory in its league. Heck – I might do so if I was on any team except one that is embarking on a hard rebuild and not likely contending for at least 3+ years. As enticing as the first overall pick is, and even if it comes along not very often, I like Robertson more under nearly any circumstances.

Topic #3In a nine team, H2H, full dynasty where 12F, 6D, and 2G start and categories are G(5), A(4), PPPt(1), SOG(0.7), HIT(0.5), BLK (0.5 for F, 1.0 for D), W(5), L(-2), SV(0.35), SO(4), GA(-0.5). what are the long-term outlooks for Adrian Kempe, Alexis Lafreniere, Kappo Kakko, Dylan Cozens, and Jesper Bratt?

In a full dynasty, Kempe is the odd man out, landing in last place without doubt. Yes, he's still only 25 and just had a 35 goal season; however, with his low assist total – more than half being secondary assists – and his SOG being likely maxed out, plus the looming arrival of young LA forwards, I worry he will never be more than a 50-60 point player, which, in a league where only a bit over 100 forwards start, isn't enough to give him value over these other players who, yes, are more unproven, but also are younger and/or offer less limited potential.

Second from the bottom I have Kakko. I do not like what I've seen from him at all, as he doesn't shoot the puck a lot and he's not yet even had an overall IPP in the 60s, let alone in the 70s that I like to see before I consider a player likely to make a significant fantasy impact. I also think the fact he's diabetic and has Celiac disease is underplayed and might be standing in the way of him succeeding. Still, he's on a Ranger team which figures to be very good and they should want to give him chances (despite the healthy scratch in game six of the conference finals), plus he was the second overall pick for a reason. It's only those reasons why I don't have him ranked dead last, as I do fear when all is said and done Kakko might end up being a bust.

Cozens made nice strides in 2021-22; but Tage Thompson seems to have established himself as the #1 center in Buffalo, and Cozens did what he did with Casey Mittelstadt injured for a good chunk of the season. What could end up happening is Buffalo tries to model itself after what St. Louis is doing and run three scoring lines; however, if that occurs Cozens wouldn't see a lot of ice time and, if he also doesn't land a spot on PP1, he could have a lower ceiling than originally expected. I still think he has a lot of talent; but unless he forces Buffalo's hand I fear he won't get the ice time or linemates he needs to become a breakout talent, instead projecting to be a scorer in the 60s at best.

Bratt is ranked second if the team is not looking to win now, as he looks like he's going to become a steady 70-80 point guy, as I explained when covered him in a Goldipucks column a few months ago. Is there a better chance that Bratt somehow rises to be a 90-point player than there is of him falling below 70? Yes, especially given his ice times and SOG rate both have realistic room to improve in the normal course. Yet I still see him as a supporting player rather than a major scoring winger ala Jake Guentzel, Kyle Connor, Kevin Fiala, or Vladimir Tarasenko. If a team wants the lowest risk, Bratt is the best choice. Otherwise, he's the runner up.

First place goes to Lafreniere. Yes, he hasn't produced even close to expectations as yet. But he is starting to get chances with top players and, as importantly, is looking like he's figuring things out, with a six game point streak in March, six points in his last seven regular season games, and a strong playoffs. Moreover, if Ryan Strome leaves as a UFA, Lafreniere could grab his coveted PP1 slot, which would go a long way toward helping Laffy fulfill expectations. Also, he's the only one of this group who I could see someday hitting 100 points, although he also could sputter and never fully pay dividends. All things considered, Lafreniere is the best bet unless a team wants guaranteed production over the next couple of seasons, in which case, as noted, Bratt would be the pick.

Topic #4In a 16 team league starting 4C, 4RW, 4LW and with skater categories of G, A, Pts, SOG, HIT, BLK, FOW, and TOI/g, a team has been offered Matthew Tkachuk and Jordan Kyrou for its Jonathan Huberdeau, Dawson Mercer and Andrew Copp. Should they take the deal?

This is a pretty impactful deal in a 16-team league, as Huberdeau and Tkachuk are each likely a top player on their respective teams. In cases like this, I either want to clearly "win" the trade or I'd rather stand pat with what I had, lest I kick myself for making a bad deal.

One key is PPPts don't count. That hurts Huberdeau, who stands third in cumulative PPPts over the past four seasons, behind only Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and five ahead of Nathan MacKinnon but 14 ahead of David Pastrnak. Yes, PPPts still count as points and Tkachuk was pretty darn good in that area in 2021-22 as well; however, it's a big deal for this league not to count that as a category given Huberdeau's track record.

There's also the reality that in order for Tkachuk to continue to have the value he did in 2021-22 both he and Johnny Gaudreau will need to re-sign with the Flames. Will Calgary do all it can to make that happen? Absolutely; but the reality is Gaudreau is a UFA who will be courted by many teams, including the Devils and Flyers, which would allow him to have a homecoming. Then again, Gaudreau realizes a large part of his success was likely tied to his chemistry with Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm, with no guarantee he'd have that on another team. Still though, Huberdeau has done enough to prove he's just plain great regardless of his linemates, whereas Tkachuk has only shown he's great in 2021-22 when he played with those exact players.

As for the other pieces, Kyrou is the best of the bunch; however, his TOI is not superb. Regardless, he does find a way to score. Copp, however, is nothing to sneeze at, as he's riding a streak of five straight seasons of higher scoring pace and will be paid enough as a UFA to ensure he sticks in a team's top six, if not its top line. Mercer should factor prominently into New Jersey's hopes of becoming an elite team, although it's not clear how much of a scorer he'll become.

If Tkachuk didn't have as many, if not more, question marks than Huberdeau, I'd say this would be a deal worth making. But between Huberdeau being such a proven entity and Mercer and Copp nothing to sneeze at, I feel it makes the most sense to stick with Huberdeau, Mercer and Copp.

Topic #5In a 12 team, keep 6 (1 goalie max), H2H league with rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, 5 Bench, 2IR, 1NA, and categories of G, A, Pts, +/-, PPPts, FW, PIM, W, GAA, SV%, SV, a team has a roster of:

C: Evgeni Kuznetsov, Jack Eichel, Brayden Schenn (LW,RW)
LW: Evander Kane (RW), Kyle Connor, Filip Forsberg, Tim Stuetzle (C)
RW: David Pastrnak, Mitch Marner, Timo Meier (LW)
D: John Carlson, Evan Bouchard, Shea Theodore, Thomas Chabot, Owen Power
G: Connor Hellebuyck, John Gibson, Marc-Andre Fleury
NA: Marco Rossi


It's leaning toward keeping Marner, Pasta, Eichel and Connor, but is torn on the other two. Do those four make sense and, if so, who should the other two be?

First things first, Carlson has to be kept. Not only do defensemen consist of 40% of all active skaters, but if we look at points by d-men over the past three seasons Carlson sits second, ahead of the likes of Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, Victor Hedman, and Kris Letang. In PPPts, he's sixth, which is still great. Yes, he's on a clock such that at some point – perhaps even as soon as this season – he's going to start becoming less productive; however, until that happens, he's a must keep.

In terms of the four that were suggested, I think each one definitely is in the conversation, with only Marner being a 100% lock. Pasta is not the player he was at his height; plus, the Bruins may be in for a tough season if Patrice Bergeron retires and Brad Marchand is slowed by after effects of surgery on both hips, yet if Pasta is dealt, as has been whispered, he could either do better or quite worse. His uncertainty is not ideal.  Other possibilities are Forsberg and Hellebucyk. At first I thought about Stutzle and/or Schenn due to the possibility of FW from the wing; however, neither of the two takes many draws, so that benefit is not enough to put them in contention over these other guys.

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I think Eichel is a keep because of what he's done in the past plus we've yet to see him in Vegas with both a healthy pair of top wingers not to mention he had a broken thumb for a while yet still did decent. His 100+ point potential is too good, and not too farfetched, to pass up. Connor is very solid, and I think he's likely to be as good if not better than Pasta on a going forward basis. Forsberg's stellar season coming while he was a UFA to be can't be ignored, nor can the fact that if his 2021-22 SH% was in line with his career rate and none of the non-goals would've been repackaged as assists, then his scoring rate would've been only 82 points. Hellebuyck had a miserable season but has yet to play poorly two years in a row; and if Barry Trotz somehow becomes coach for the Jets, then Hellebuyck should benefit tremendously, except in terms of fewer starts; though his gains in peripherals would more than compensate.

My inclination would be to make room for Hellebuyck, as although goalies only account for 16% (i.e., 2/12) of a team's active line-up, their categories amount to 36% (i.e., 4/11) of those scored, with two of the four being volume-based starts. Hellebuyck has too much value in this league to toss back into the pool, since either he remains a workhorse or Trotz comes in as coach and then Hellebucyk starts probably ten fewer gams but has vast improvements in SV% and GAA, which also could improve in the normal course also since as I noted Hellebuyck has never been bad two seasons in a row.

If both Hellebuyck and Carlson are kept, that means one of Pasta, Connor, Forsberg, Marner, and Eichel couldn't be kept. I already said I'd keep Marner and Eichel, so it'd be Forsberg, Connor, or Pasta. My inclination would be to put Forsberg, Pasta and Connor all on the block, perhaps with Stutzle, Meier, Bouchard, and/or Kane, and see what package can net the best in return draft picks, solving the too many keepers dilemma in the process.

Topic #6In a 24 team H2H dynasty where starting line-ups are 3C, 5W, 4D, 1G and skater categories are G(2), A(1), HIT(0.1), BLK(0.1), SOG(0.1), with defensemen points worth double, and one goalie category of WIN(3.5), a GM wants to know how they can improve their team, which consists of:

C: Sebastian Aho, Mathew Barzal, Mark Schiefele
W: Patrik Laine, Nicolaj Ehlers, Timo Meier, William Nylander, Matthew Tkachuk
D: Roman Josi, Zach Werenski, Morgan Rielly, Seth Jones
G: Ilya Samsonov
Bench: Kaapo Kakko, Kyle Palmieri, Noah Hanifin, Filip Hronek, Jake Allen, Cole Caulfield

Even at first glance it's clear this team is STACKED when it comes to skaters. Think of it this way – in a 24-team league where, if this roster is any indication, 19 players are owned by each team, that's nearly 500 players owned in total, such that each team should have maybe four or five of the top 100 skaters. But a case could be made that all 12 of this team's skaters are top 100 or at least in that vicinity.

As for goalies though, Samsonov is not in the upper echelon. Could he still right his ship? It's possible; however, not only has his GAA and Really Bad Starts risen, and SV%, QS% and GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) dropped, each season, but his comparables are concerning to say the least. Looking at the 28 goalies going back to 1997-98, which is when Quality Starts began being tracked, who played 80+ games in their first three seasons by age 25, Samsonov had the second worst QS%, with only Peter Budaj below him, the sixth worst SV%, with Brian Boucher, Marc-Andre Fleury, Rick Dipietro, Cam Ward, Dan Cloutier, and Sebastien Caron below him, with those same five, plus Steve Mason, the only ones with a lower cumulative GSAA, and only Caron, Dipietro, and Cloutier with worse Goalie Point Shares. As for goalies who had a higher percentage of Really Bad Starts in their first three seasons than Samsonov's 16.4% (i.e., 13 RBS in 79 starts), the list consists of Ward, Brian Elliott, Jake Allen, Devan Dubnyk, MacKenzie Blackwood, and Carter Hart. Even in the case of Fleury, who was the best goalie to appear on these lists, his stats came when he was 19, 21, and 22, with 22 being how old the now 25-year-old Samsonov was as a rookie. Ward too was best when he was young, and already had seen his game slip by the time he was as old as Samsonov is now. Long story short, the future does not look bright for Samsonov based on these comparables, plus just in looking at his poor stats and trends to date.

Here's the thing – as bad as Samsonov was, he still had 23 wins, for 80.5 fantasy points, with only five goalies getting 35+ wins and no one tallying 40. Although Samsonov is clearly the weak link on this fantasy team, he doesn't bring it down as far as one might think, at least not yet. Trading for a goalie is risky because wins is more of a fickle stat than one might think, as the top ten goalies in wins for 2020-21 finished in the following spots for wins in 2021-22: 1st, tied for 30th, 14th, 8th, 13th, tied for 4th, 3rd, 34th, tied for 25th, tied for 48th. Not only did only four of the ten from 2020-21 remain in the top ten for 2021-22, but several saw their rank plummet, only one of which (Mike Smith) was due for the most part to injury. Although I think proceeding with Samsonov as this team's lone goalie is very risky, trading a key asset to get one might not be as successful as hoped given how much season-to-season change there can be in wins. That having been said, guys like Tristan Jarry, Juuse Saros, and Thatcher Demko are likely "safe" goalies to obtain given their teams and how entrenched each of them already is at a still youngish age; and this team has more than enough depth to get one of them in trade, which is what I'd try to do.

Who would I trade? Probably Scheifele, who is almost as consistent as they come yet who I also think it's safe to say has peaked and could soon see his production start to wane, unless of course his displeasure with the Jets results in him getting moved. I like dishing him now, as what happens if Barry Trotz becomes coach? We saw the effect that had on Barzal, so trade Scheifele for sure. If a second player is needed to sweeten the pot, I'd toss in Jones, who also has great name value but given his team and age is unlikely to see his totals rise from what we saw from him this season. I think those two should be enough to net – pun intended – Jarry, Saros, or Demko, which is seemingly all this team would need to be the favorite not just entering 2022-23 but for at least the next several few seasons.

Topic #7 – While no one likely expects Chris Krieder to repeat his 2021-22 performance, will he slide all the way back to the player he had been, or can he settle somewhere in between?

For a player, at age 31, who'd never even once posted a scoring pace of 60+ to have risen all the way to a 78 point pace and who'd never scored even 30 goals somehow pot 52, alarm bells definitely go off. Yes, he had a higher per game ice time than any other season in his career; however, his PP time per game was over 30 seconds less than what it'd been in his each of his prior two seasons, yet somehow his PP scoring went from a combined 27 PPPts in 113 contests over the past two seasons to 35 in just 81 games in 2021-22.

Kreider's SOG/60 also rose to 10.2, which, although a career high, was not far and away above the 8.6-9.2 it was in four of the prior five seasons. Still, that likely meant close to a handful of goals he'd be unlikely to get in a "normal" season.

Kreider also fired 66 PPSOG, which, although high, especially for him, wasn't even in the top 20 among all forwards. But his ratio of PPGs to PPSOG was 26/66, or 0.40, which was far above the ratio of any forward in the top 25 in PPSOG, and by a lot, with the next highest ratio being 0.25. So if his ratio had merely been tied for the second highest among all PPSOGs, his PPGs would've been only 16, rather than 26.

Is there precedent for a forward who never tallied even 30 goals jumping to over 50, and doing so at age 30? No. However, there is some similarity to Glen Murray, who, at age 30, potted 44 goals and totaled 92 points after never having bested 62 points in a prior season. What happened to Murray thereafter? He dropped to 60 points the following season, then 52; and by age 35 was done in the NHL.

On top of these factors, a whopping 17 of Kreider's goals came via tip ins, which ranked him first overall by eight over the next highest total of nine. In fact, going back to 2010-11, only twice did any player hit double digits in tip in goals: David Backes with 11 in 2014-15 and Ryan Callahan with ten in 2010-11. Of the more than a dozen forwards who led or tied for the lead in tip in goals in a full season dating back to 2010-11, only two didn't see their scoring rate fall the following season, with more than half seeing a double-digit drop.

Let's also not look past the reality that Kreider plays a rough and tumble style, totaling over 100 hits in every season where he's logged 50+ games. We need look no further than the likes of Backes and Callahan, plus Jamie Benn, Dustin Brown, Wayne Simmonds, Milan Lucic, Erik Cole, Andrew Ladd, Shane Doan, Scott Hartnell, and James Neal as examples of those who played with a similar style as Kreider and saw their scoring crater right around the age Kreider is now, if not even earlier.

Do I think Kreider's productivity will hit a brick wall? No; although as we saw with some of the aforementioned players, it can happen, and suddenly. Instead, I see him dropping to something closer to 35 goals and 25 assists in 2022-23, but with him having a better chance of falling to 55 points than rising to 65. Long before his deal ends in 2027, he'll likely be a shell of his former self, having been pushed aside by younger Ranger wingers.

Topic #8In a 12 Team Keeper, Weekly H2H, Daily Starts (3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G) league with skater categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT, a GM is interested in trying to obtain Lucas Raymond; however, the Raymond GM is asking for Alex DeBrincat in return. Should the GM consider the deal and, if so, how much of a sweetener should be required?

Raymond had an impressive rookie campaign, with 57 points as a 19-year-old on a Detroit team that's yet to fully round into form. Hopes are high for him to be able to improve significantly, although is that likely to occur? He became just the fourth teen wing dating back to 1990-91 to finish a season with 20+ goals, 30+ assists, 12%+ SH%, but less than 70 points, with the other three being one who turned out superb (Jaromir Jagr), one who's had ups and downs (Jeff Skinner), and another who never panned out (Pat Falloon). We can't tell from comparables what we should expect. One thing that's notable is Jakub Vrana plays the same position, so there could be issues in terms of who gets a spot on the top line, although the Wings could "split the baby" and have Raymond play with one of Tyler Bertuzzi and Dylan Larkin, and Vrana with the other, while all four presumably would be on PP1. Also, although Raymond had 21 points in his first 22 games, he finished cold, with just two points in nine games. Part of that might have been him hitting a rookie wall or just bad luck, as his SOG rate and ice times weren't down.

As for DeBrincat, not only did he pot a goal per every other game, for 41 in total, but he did so for a team which finished with only 213 goals, or 14 fewer than Detroit. DeBrincat scored a remarkable 19.2% of his team's goals. To put that in perspective, of the seven players who had more goals than DeBrincat and played in 80+ games, their percentages were 20.8% (Chris Kreider, who we just saw had an unsustainably high total), 19.3% (Leon Draisaitl), 15.4 (Kirill Kaprizov), 18.8% (Kyle Connor), 15.4% (Connor McDavid), 14.4% (both Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm), and 14.7% (Steven Stamkos). So yeah, DeBrincat is a pretty special goal scorer.

Also, although Chicago is poised to struggle for the foreseeable future whereas the Red Wings will likely improve, DeBrincat is an unquestioned top line, top PP winger, who will get all the ice time he can handle with the best of the best on his team. As I've said previously, it's often better to be in a great spot on a subpar team than a very good spot on a better team. What's more – DeBrincat's 15.2% SH% was actually the second lowest of his career, so he didn't luck into the goals he did score. He's also a smaller statured player, such that his true breakout threshold might not be until game 400, which will occur in 2022-23.  If he gets traded, as has been rumored, most likely he'd go to a team that covets him, so he'd do as well or even better.

I would not make this trade, as DeBrincat's goal scoring is reliable and still capable of improving even if the team around him struggles or if he gets moved. Raymond could turn out to be very good or even great; but the same degree of assuredness just isn't there.

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