We are back this week with our analysis of the playoff rounds. And no, we won't be talking about that overtime goal. We have moved through all of the first-round exits, and this week will turn our attentions to the teams that didn't survive the second round.

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics: Second Round Exits

The teams in question this week are St. Louis, Calgary, Carolina and Florida. Given that these are two-series teams, our sample size is beginning to look a little larger. In this case we have a range of 10-14 games for teams (obviously less for specific players if they were benched or injured)

We are starting to get some larger sample sizes but are still predominantly going to focus on deployment and look at how players were utilized in these win-or-go-home series. Doing so might give us a bit of insight into how coaches are viewing certain players and who might be primed for a different role next season compared to this one.

So far, we have been working under the caveat that these trends should be taken with a grain of salt because they are small sample sizes, and at the end of the day these teams lost. These second-round exits did at least win one round so something about their strategy worked at least a bit. It gives a little bit more weight to what we might see in the structures (with the possible exception of Florida. Not exactly sure what is going on there right now, or how Paul Maurice will change things).

Additional notes from last week's article.

And now on to the process. We will be looking at deployment and specifically percent of time on the power-play, at even strength, and total time on ice. We will be using percent as overtime games can add significant time to a player's overall count without changing that player's real deployment opportunity. In order to get this data, we will be running a custom Time on Ice report for the playoffs and comparing that to a second custom Time on Ice report for the last two months of the regular season. That comparison will tell us which players have gained or lost time between these two samples.

 So now on to the data. First up: Total Time on Ice

Name	Pos	Age	Team	GP	%PP Playoff	%EV Playoff	%TOI Playoff	%PP Season	%EV Season	%TOI Season	%PP Change	%EV Change	%TOI Change
RYAN O’REILLY	C	31	STL	12	56.7	32	35.1	54.2	28	31	2.50	4.00	4.10
MIKAEL BACKLUND	C	33	CGY	12	36	30.5	31.7	26.5	27	27.6	9.50	3.50	4.10
DAVID PERRON	R	34	STL	12	58.1	33.1	32.5	58.4	27.8	28.5	-0.30	5.30	4.00
COLTON PARAYKO	D	29	STL	12	14.9	43.8	41.6	3.8	40.3	37.6	11.10	3.50	4.00
JUSTIN FAULK	D	30	STL	12	47.5	41.8	42.6	43.5	38.5	39	4.00	3.30	3.60

If we read left to right we have some basic info about the player in question, then we have their playoff performance using the percent of the total team time that they were on the ice (on the power play, at even strength, and in total). In gray we have the same categories, but for the last two months of the regular season. The far-left white columns are again the same time on ice categories, but showing the change from regular season to the playoffs.

Looking at even strength here the clear beneficiaries are almost all from St.Louis. Ryan O'Reilly and David Perron are not entirely surprising. They have been a part of St. Louis' core for several years now. Part of the reason they are seeing an uptick is that over the course of the season St. Louis started spreading time across three scoring lines. This was great for Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich, but less good for O'Reilly and Perron. Reverting back to O'Reilly more heavily in the playoffs makes sense when matching lines and wanting to focus on winning faceoffs etc. I see this as a playoff specific move, and not really something to necessarily carry forward to next season.

The D is a bit more interesting. Both Justin Faulk and Colton Parayko saw more time at even strength and on the power-play. Some of it is definitely Torey Krug missing all but three games, but particularly for Faulk, who had a reasonably strong regular season as well, it bodes well for next season.

Next, a quick look at players who saw less time.

Name	Pos	Age	Team	GP	%PP Playoff	%EV Playoff	%TOI Playoff	%PP Season	%EV Season	%TOI Season	%PP Change	%EV Change	%TOI Change
MICHAEL STONE	D	32	CGY	9	39.4	20.3	20.9	25.7	31.5	29.4	13.70	-11.20	-8.50
BEN CHIAROT	D	31	FLA	10	0.2	32.4	28.4	13.3	36.9	36	-13.10	-4.50	-7.60
BRANDON MONTOUR	D	28	FLA	10	25.5	29.2	26.1	27.6	33.4	31	-2.10	-4.20	-4.90
IAN COLE	D	33	CAR	14	0.2	24.6	24.3	0.7	28.9	28.4	-0.50	-4.30	-4.10
ANTON LUNDELL	C	20	FLA	9	2.2	18.7	18.9	10.7	23.5	22.8	-8.50	-4.80	-3.90

Nothing shocking about a rookie losing out on a bit of time in the playoffs, so I think we can ignore Anton Lundell. In theory there is also nothing shocking about third pair D losing time either, so Ian Cole, Ben Chiarot, Brandon Montour, and to some extent Michael Stone all sort of make sense. Except Chiarot doesn't. You don't give up a first-round pick for a third pair defensemen who is going to lose massive time in the playoffs. Except if Chiarot wasn't worth the first-round pick to begin with. This move, plus the coaching change, makes me wonder if something overly dramatic is in store in Florida over the summer.

For fantasy purposes most of these players weren't owned anyway. Lundell certainly still has the upside and I wouldn't read too much into lost time here. He does need a deployment boost to realize the potential there so that is what to pay the most attention to.

And now on to power-play deployment.

Name	Pos	Age	Team	GP	%PP Playoff	%EV Playoff	%TOI Playoff	%PP Season	%EV Season	%TOI Season	%PP Change	%EV Change	%TOI Change
MICHAEL STONE	D	32	CGY	9	39.4	20.3	20.9	25.7	31.5	29.4	13.70	-11.20	-8.50
SETH JARVIS	R	20	CAR	14	45.3	25.1	24.9	34	24.9	23.4	11.30	0.20	1.50
MIKAEL BACKLUND	C	33	CGY	12	36	30.5	31.7	26.5	27	27.6	9.50	3.50	4.10
PATRIC HORNQVIST	R	35	FLA	10	35.4	17.8	17.8	27.8	21.3	19.6	7.60	-3.50	-1.80
DILLON DUBE	L	23	CGY	12	33.1	22.4	23.2	26	22.6	21.7	7.10	-0.20	1.50

There is also an added filter here on play off power-play percentage. I am not including anyone who increased their power-play time but still accounted for less than 30 percent of their team's time.

Love to see Seth Jarvis on this list. He is certainly one to keep an eye on. He had a few great runs during the season, but clearly saw a big increase in time in the playoffs. He saw his strongest deployment during the Rangers series where he saw over 50 percent in five of the final six games, and over 60 percent of the power-play time in three of those. The one slight caveat here is that in the final game he appeared to be bumped for Martin Necas (who incidentally also saw an increase in PP time in the playoffs). The downside with Carolina is that it seems that the lines aren't super consistent and someone like Jarvis is going to be valuable only with that top deployment. The good news is that Jarvis clearly made a good impression in his first season, and that carried over to an increased role in the playoffs.

So who lost the most time?

Name	Pos	Age	Team	GP	%PP Playoff	%EV Playoff	%TOI Playoff	%PP Season	%EV Season	%TOI Season	%PP Change	%EV Change	%TOI Change
NICK LEDDY	D	31	STL	9	4	38.1	35.1	37.7	36.4	35.7	-33.70	1.70	-0.60
MAX DOMI	R	27	CAR	14	3.7	21.1	17.4	27.1	22.1	20.6	-23.40	-1.00	-3.20
ANTHONY DUCLAIR	R	26	FLA	8	39.9	21.1	21	63.3	22.6	24	-23.40	-1.50	-3.00
IVAN BARBASHEV	L	26	STL	12	7	23.6	22	29.4	26.1	25.8	-22.40	-2.50	-3.80
ANDREI SVECHNIKOV	L	22	CAR	14	42.6	27.8	27	61.6	28.9	28.7	-19.00	-1.10	-1.70

This is not a friendly list. It is bad news for just about everyone on it.

Nick Leddy was completely usurped by Justin Faulk and Colton Parayko on the power-play and lost a massive amount of time. Even with Torey Krug out. Not that Leddy ever really did anything when he had power-play time, but still not good. Four percent of the team's power-play time over nine very important games without Krug is not a show of confidence.

Max Domi is a wild card here. New team juggling him around trying to find where he fits, plus maybe a new team in the off season – I wouldn't read too much into this one.

This is a bit rough for Anthony Duclair. He didn't play for the final game against the Rangers, which is never a good sign. It isn't all doom and gloom though. Something similar happened in the playoffs last season, but then Duclair went and re-signed with the Panthers, spent a lot the season in the top six and put up career-high points and point pace. Part of the issue is depth, and the Panthers have a lot of it. Patric Hornqvist got more power-play time in the playoffs (makes sense, a guy with more experience), plus Claude Giroux coming in at the deadline didn't help Duclair at all. I don't think this is a complete panic situation as he did recover from something similar last season, but the Florida depth chart is certainly bears watching and there is no guarantee of repeat success from Duclair next season.

Andrei Svechnikov is a surprise here as well. He lost deployment across the board, but almost 19 percent of his team's power-play time. This is on top of a fourth quarter where he was already seeing the lowest ice time and production of the season. In his final playoff game, he was still seeing top line time with Sebastian Aho at even strength, but was on the second power-play unit. He didn't hit the score sheet often either with one point in his final eight playoff games. Like with Duclair, it isn't exactly panic time as he is still very talented, but what started off as a potentially huge season, ended with a decided thud. It is a reminder that as much as he is a skilled and talented player, he hasn't broken out from being line dependent, and that his deployment is still not entirely secure.

That is all for this week

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