Ramblings: Hits Options Jeannot, M. Foligno; Playoff Scoring and More (Jun 26)
Ian Gooding
2022-06-26
Since his debut in the 2013-14 season, only five players have registered more hits than Tom Wilson. Over that time, Wilson has gradually developed into a scoring threat as well, all the way from his 10-point rookie season to his career-high 24 goals and 52 points last season. The combination of scoring and peripherals makes Wilson an incredibly valuable player in bangers leagues. Unfortunately, he isn't expected to return until around December following knee surgery.
This past season, four players were credited for at least 200 hits while scoring at least 20 goals. One was Wilson. Another was Brady Tkachuk, who is also well-known as a dual threat for scoring and hits. I'll discuss the other two below and what they might have in store for next season.
Only Radko Gudas had more hits than Jeannot in 2021-22 (318). The Predators winger showed signs of a physical presence in limited duty in 2020-21 with 53 hits in just 15 games and 17.5 Hits/60. As well, only Mark Borowiecki and Pat Maroon finished with more penalty minutes than Jeannot (130), which should make the undrafted Jeannot a much-desired player in bangers leagues – even without the scoring.
As for the scoring, I'm a little less sold. One big one is that Jeannot doesn't see much power-play time. That number crept up a little as the season went on, but consider him a PP2 option at best. As well, his shooting percentage (19.4%) and secondary assist percentage (47.1%) both check out higher than expected. Jeannot averages about 1.5 SOG/GP, so that number will likely need to improve. Playing on more of a scoring line might be one way for his shot total to increase, since his most frequent linemates have been Colton Sissons and Yakov Trenin.
In bangers leagues, I'm absolutely zeroing in on Jeannot as a possible Wilson substitute. If his scoring doesn't dip much, he has tremendous value. However, Jeannot is way down the list for me in pure points leagues. He's currently 254 in the Top 300 Keeper League skaters, and I'm not even sure I'd rank him that high.
You know the Breakout Threshold theory that is often discussed here, where a bigger forward needs 400 NHL games and will start to decline at age 31? Well, the 6-3, 226 lb., soon-to-be 31-year-old Foligno needed about 565 games before he was able to break out as a scoring option during the shortened 2020-21 season. After many seasons in the 15-25-point range, Foligno scored at a 55-point pace (26 points in 39 games) before reaching an actual career-high 23 goals and 42 points this past season.
Although he hasn't always had a scorer's touch, Foligno has always had a bangers side to his game. Since 2012-13, Foligno's hit total has always been in the triple digits, while he has had only two seasons with below 50 penalty minutes. He finished in the top 10 in penalty minutes this past season with 112 PIM, while his 238 hits was his highest total since 2016-17.
Like with Jeannot, I just don't think his scoring is sustainable, even though the Wild are no longer that boring defensive team of many seasons past. Foligno played much of the season on one of the league's better third lines with Joel Eriksson Ek and Jordan Greenway, while his 33.0 PP% was the highest proportion of power-play time of his career. Over the past two seasons, Foligno has posted shooting percentages of 27.5% and 23.5%, which seem really, really high. As might be expected for a big man, Foligno led the Wild with five tip-in goals (only 10 NHL players had more) and five off-rebound goals (only 12 NHL players had more). He may not have to take as many shots as the average forward, but he has never reached 100 shots in a season (although he was close with 98 SOG this past season).
Foligno is a viable late-round option in any league that counts hits, penalty minutes, or especially both. He shouldn't really be on your radar in pure points leagues, though.
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Update on the playoff scoring race, with at least one and at most two games remaining:
Name | Team | GP | G | A | PTS |
CONNOR MCDAVID | EDM | 16 | 10 | 23 | 33 |
LEON DRAISAITL | EDM | 16 | 7 | 25 | 32 |
CALE MAKAR | COL | 19 | 8 | 21 | 29 |
NIKITA KUCHEROV | TB | 22 | 8 | 19 | 27 |
MIKKO RANTANEN | COL | 19 | 5 | 20 | 25 |
So yes, Connor McDavid could still win the playoff scoring race and Leon Draisaitl could finish second in spite of both being eliminated at the Conference Final level. Cale Makar would likely need multiple points in a Game 6 and a Game 7 to win the scoring race, although I'm sure he'd be happier with a Stanley Cup win in Game 6 than a playoff scoring title. Nevertheless, it would be amazing if a defenseman won the playoff scoring title as well.
I'd picked Nathan MacKinnon (22 points) for the Conn Smythe before the final simply because I'd also picked him before the playoffs, but I'd now have to assume Makar wins the Conn Smythe if Colorado wins it all. If you'd like to revisit the Stanley Cup Final predictions from the Dobber writers, click here.
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The Saint John Sea Dogs punched their ticket to the Memorial Cup Final with a 5-3 win over QMJHL rival Shawinigan. Islanders prospect William Dufour led the way with a four-goal performance for the Sea Dogs. Dufour just happens to be one of the lower-profile prospect subjects of this week's The Journey, where you can read more about him. Props to Ben Gehrels for identifying Dufour before Saturday's game had started. We like to be ahead of the curve at Dobber Hockey, but maybe the secret's out on Dufour now.
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I recently decided to join another fantasy hockey league. It's a league with a salary cap, which is an area of fantasy hockey that I'd like to explore more. This particular league is the deepest of deep leagues (at least to me) with 20 teams and something like 30 prospects in addition to a typical regular fantasy hockey roster. I've never participated in a salary cap league, and I've never had a roster with this many prospects.
If you've ever assumed a franchise in an existing fantasy hockey league, that franchise has probably resembled a dilapidated house in need of repair more than a trendy brand-new home. The previous franchise owner probably left the league because they didn't invest the necessary time to maintain the roster (if you're lucky, they did put in the time and they've just realized they can't anymore… and I'm not trying to suggest that reasons someone doesn't aren't legitimate, as they are often related to real life). This particular roster falls into the category of fixer-upper, but I'm up for a new challenge.
I won't get into any details of who is on the roster, since I haven't formulated a plan for it yet. The team finished around the middle of the pack last season, which isn't bad. Just underneath the playoff bar. However, there are a number of hefty contracts, some of which aren't providing great value. On top of that, this roster doesn't have any blue-chip prospects among its base but has a handful of mid-range prospects that kind of intrigue me. Oh yeah, the team doesn't have any picks in this year's entry draft for draft-eligible players, and a few picks have already been traded over the following two seasons.
Since all of this league's teams have an NHL team name, I think I came up with an appropriate name for this team: the Vancouver Canucks.
Where it might seem of interest to readers, I'll discuss this team some more in the future as I begin my new renovation project.
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Enjoy Game 6! Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.
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Enjoy Game 6! Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.