Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I'm in a 10 team, keep 24, H2H league with rosters of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G, 4 Bench, 3IR, 1IR+, 2NA, and categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, GS, W, GA, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO. I think I have a good team but haven't won in a few years, mostly due to bad luck in H2H playoffs. Looking at my roster below, are there any areas where you think I should try to improve? You'll see I have 28 players listed, so another issue is I need to drop four. Who do you think those should be? To add another layer, there are some pretty good players who aren't owned right now, so it's possible for me to pick one or more of them up, so long as I end up with only 24 in total.

My current roster is:

C: Elias Pettersson, Quinton Byfield, Anton Lundell, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mika Zibanejad, Marco Rossi
LW: Alexis Lafreniere, Trevor Zegras, Brady Tkachuk, Jack Hughes, Sam Bennett, Alex Newhook
RW: Tanner Jeannot, Matthew Tkachuk, Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Cole Perfetti
D: Dougie Hamilton, Bowen Byram, Darnell Nurse, Miro Heiskanen, Zach Werenski, Adam Fox, Jakob Chychrun
G: Thatcher Demko, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jake Oettinger, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Here are the available free agents of note:
Carter Verhaeghe, Kent Johnson, Brock Boeser, Alexander Romanov, Martin Fehervary, Sean Durzi, Mason Marchment, Alexander Holtz, Dylan Strome, Andrew Mangiapane, Nicolas Roy, Alex Tuch, Yaroslav Askarov, Jesper Wallstedt

With 24 being kept, but starting line-ups of 20, there is some room to keep prospects; however, the emphasis should be on players who can make an impact now, or in the near term. Five guys stick out as less likely to make their mark soon, if at all – Byfield, Rossi, Perfetti, Lundell, and Luukkonen. Newhook has not done much yet; however, chances are good that he steps into the second line center role for the Avs in 2022-23, which would be huge. Yes, he also might be put in the bottom six or not succeed, but his risk versus reward is better than any of those other five in my opinion, so he would not be on the short list for cuts. I also like Nurse and Jeannot due to the categories, and Byram, though injury-plagued thus far for his young career. Byram projects to be a very solid fantasy blueliner and should be able to stake out a favorable spot for himself despite the presence of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard, where one of the latter two might be traded in part because of what Byram brings to the table.

The easiest cut from that group is Luukkonen, as I worry that he hasn't done more by age 23 for a Buffalo team that had plenty of chances to hand the crease to him. Then again, they might have been concerned that doing so too early could've risked placing him in a losing environment, and that saving him until the team fully turns things around would be best. Whatever the explanation is, he's not nearly where Oettinger is at the same age, and in a 2G league I think keeping four goalies is unnecessary unless all four are superb, which Luukkonen is not, and might never be. He's a drop.

As for the three forwards, I think Rossi is the next easiest to toss back. Yes, he's a center on a Minnesota team which is shallow at that position and will be hard pressed to bring in veteran talent due to their cap penalties over the next three seasons. Then why wasn't Rossi in the NHL in 2021-22? You'd think he'd have been a top-six upgrade over, say, Frederick Gaudreau. For whatever reason the Wild opted to keep him in the AHL. That concerns me, as does his small stature, which might mean it takes him until game 400 or so to truly break out. Also, the Wild could lose Kevin Fiala to its cap crunch, making it so the talent level on line two, where Rossi would presumably be placed, would be a lot less than it was this season. I think he can go back into the draft pool.

Byfield hasn't done anything to suggest that he can't be a very successful NHL player. By the same token he didn't take the NHL by storm in 2021-22. I think Anze Kopitar is the kind of player who will be able to continue to play at or near his level for several more seasons, which could stunt the trajectory of Byfield in the process. He's a non-keeper too.

The toughest call is Perfetti versus Lundell. Both are on teams with forward depth, which is both a good and a bad thing, as if they're put into the right situation they can do great; however, if they're buried then they might not progress as anticipated. Lundell is a center, who's ostensibly stuck behind not only Aleksander Barkov but also Bennett, whom the Panthers like to have play with Jonathan Huberdeau in order to offer their star winger some gritty protection. That leaves Lundell in a role perhaps not unlike that of Jordan Staal when he was in Pittsburgh, as Lundell is skilled defensively. I worry though that he might get pigeonholed into that spot and it could prevent him from achieving his full potential like it did Staal. Then again, he might just bide his time like Sean Couturier before getting a chance to center a top line and then not look back. Perfetti's flexibility at wing is helpful; however, with Blake Wheeler, Nicolaj Ehlers, and Kyle Connor ahead of him on the depth chart, it's not clear whether Perfetti will get a chance to play top offensive minutes, although Wheeler might get moved. Still, either way Perfetti should fit into the top six, which, as we've seen from Ehlers, can lead to success even without a spot on PP1. Lundell has more home run potential but I like Perfetti of the two, so I'm not keeping Lundell over him.

Looking at the free agents, the good news is if this caliber of players are available then dropping those four likely won't be too consequential. In other words, there are some pretty decent players here, and some young talent as well, so these four cuts are easier to stomach.

Of those who are available Boeser is tempting; however, not only has he already become a Band-Aid-Boy, but he's never had a season with an IPP of 70%, which is what I like to see before I feel like a player can be impactful in fantasy. Also, despite missing chunks of time each season Boeser has received the 22nd most PP minutes of any forward over the past four seasons, yet stands only tied for 57th in cumulative PPPts. He has high reward potential if he connects the dots; but I don't see another player who I'd not keep over him. Plus, his presence on the waiver wire despite there being ten teams kind of says something in and of itself.

There's also Dylan Strome, who had 27 of his 51 points in his last 28 games. The issue is he tempted us previously in 2019-20, only to come back to earth with a crashing thud in 2020-21. Also looming large is Kirby Dach, whom one would think the Hawks would prefer to see succeed because he's younger and the team is trying to rebuild. Strome, as an RFA, could even be dealt to help Chicago get young assets to use for the future. Either way, Strome seems to run too hot and cold to be kept over any of the 24 who are left, so I'd pass on him as well.

In sum, don't grab any free agents, and drop Luukkonen, Rossi, Byfield, and Lundell. The closest call is Lundell versus Perfetti, so if you feel strongly about Lundell I could get behind keeping him instead of Perfetti. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Jason)

In my 12 team, keep 4, H2H, 17 rostered (2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 1UTL, 2G, 4 Bench) league, which I just won for the second season in a row, I had to trade away a lot of picks to nail down the victory. As a result I'm not selecting until the 7th round in our league's next draft. It's a "banger" league, with categories of G, A, PPPts, GWG, PIM, HIT BLK, SOG, W, SV,GAA, SV% SO. 

I see my keepers as Nathan MacKinnon, Brady Tkachuk, Igor Shesterkin, and Andrei Vasilevskiy, with other contenders being Artemi Panarin, Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg, Timo Meier, Drake Batherson, John Carlson, Dougie Hamilton and Radko Gudas. I know from reading your columns that you're not very big on keeping more than one goalie when there are this few keepers; however, does this qualify as a rare exception given my situation?

If you are a reader of my columns, you know that in my last Goldipucks column, which was my annual one devoted to goalies, I said the outlook for Vasilevskiy is not great going forward in view of his subpar stats over the past two seasons plus the continued need for the Lightning to lean on him heavily due to not being able to afford a better back-up due to cap constraints. As usual Vasilevskiy had a superb playoffs, such that his value should still be sky high in fantasy. As such, I suspect you could trade him for a huge haul, most likely a few draft picks to help restock your cupboard, which, as you noted, is bare for the first six rounds.

Does it make sense to trade Vas given your league's settings and categories? Goalies comprise 15% (i.e., 2/13) of each team's active line-ups but their categories count for 38% (i.e., 5/13) of your league's scoring. As such, goalies hold a premium more so than in other leagues, such that it is reasonable to at least consider keeping Vas on top of Shesterkin. If you do, then you are essentially "punting" on this season given that as great as your retentions stand to be, each team's also will be superb since there will only be 48 in total. The difference is, you won't get to draft a player until at least 120 (i.e., 48 keepers + 72 picks in rounds 1-6) are off the board, and that's a lot of unavailable talent in a league where only 156 combined players (i.e., 13 players x 12 teams) are in active line-ups.

If you're okay with likely losing this season in order to keep the one-two netminder punch of Vas and Shesterkin, then by all means keep Vas, although as I did note in the Goldipucks column I fear his best hockey is already behind him, which means you might regret doing so. Also, if you didn't keep Vas, you could hold onto Carlson, Stamkos, or Panarin, who are all top tier keepers. Plus, they are all 30+, so if you do keep one of them – my pick would be Carlson, who's more superior at his position – you'd need the draft picks you'd receive from trading Vas not only to compete but to hopefully get you a younger keeper via the draft whom you could slot in for this older keeper if need be for 2023-24.

Try this – put Vas on the block while his value is nice and high after the playoffs. See if he can get you enough in return to either give you a top younger keeper that's superb enough to not take draft picks in return and essentially not compete this season, or, more preferably, to get draft picks, which, as noted, hopefully you can use to land you a keeper who can be slotted in if the older keeper you choose as your fourth ends up starting to see his numbers slide. Good luck!

Question #3 (from a different Jason)

I'm in a 10 team league with rosters of 2C, 4W, 4D, 2G, 4 Bench, 1 IR. We also might add a flex/utility spot next season. Categories are G, A, PPPts, SOG, BLK, HIT, W, GAA, SV%, SO. As you can see, goalie cats (40%, i.e., 4/10) are heavily weighted in proportion to their roster percentage (16.6%, i.e., 2/12).

The league has limited keepers. You can keep 4 players chosen after round 2 for three years. To keep them, you give up the pick where you drafted them (FA would give up the 16th round pick; two players in the same round means you have to keep one of them a round earlier). I'm new to the league, so I'm not sure if offseason trades are allowed or, even if so, the extent to which they occur.

Here are my possible keepers, plus the rounds in which they were picked: Aleksander Barkov (3rd) J.T. Miller (5th), Igor Shesterkin (5th), Roman Josi (6th), Jack Campbell (7th), Jack Eichel (13th) Kris Letang (16th) Max Pacioretty (16th) Drake Batherson (16th), Juuse Saros (16th).

I won the league in 2021-22, so I'll be picking last in our snake draft. Why this matters is keeping Aleksander Barkov (3rd round) and Miller (4th round) is essentially the same thing with Barkov being kept in place of what would be the 30th overall pick and Miller the 31st, as Miller would be a 4th rounder because I'd keep Shesterkin in the 5th round.

From where I sit, my two "no brainer" keepers, in addition to Shesterkin, are Eichel, and Saros. For the last spot I'm leaning toward Batherson, but I can see value in Letang or maybe even Pacioretty. I don't like Batherson's low SOG, or that he was off the first line at the end of last season once he returned. I also feel like Josi at the start of the 6th round isn't enough value, and the rest don't make much sense given my other options. Who would you keep? 

One more question – if offseason trades are allowed and occur, I was thinking of making a pitch to the owner of Jack Hughes, who's a 12th rounder – something like two of Letang, Pacioretty, Batherson, and Josi. Would you do this deal? Would you do Eichel for Hughes straight up? 

Touching upon the second part first, if you can wrangle Hughes from his owner, I'd be prepared to part with any of your skaters, even including Eichel. Hughes had a full season scoring pace of 94 points but he started with eight points in 13 games, meaning thereafter he had 48 in 36 contests, for a scoring pace of 109, which was better than Eichel did in any season of his career, although Eichel was doing it all virtually himself in Buffalo, and we've yet to see how he can fare in Vegas when fully healthy (he played much of the last part of the season with a broken thumb) or with two top wingers (he skated only a few games with both Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty in the line-up). Although I'd try to avoid losing Eichel to get Hughes, if push came to shove I'd do the trade straight up, as Hughes projects to be great and New Jersey is a team on the rise, plus their rounds are comparable.

As with the previous question, you also have a dilemma in terms of whether to keep two goalies. In this case, your categories are even more weighted toward netminders; but only two of the four categories are volume-based, making it so Saros is less valuable than he might be in other leagues. Why not use him to get Hughes? That way you get to keep Eichel. Saros is likely very valued in your league due to his late round, so that should be enough to entice the Hughes owner to part with him. Yes Saros is a round bargain as well; but you have to give to get.

Regardless of what happens with Hughes, Eichel and Saros, you need to one more keeper on top of Shesterkin, who I agree is an auto-keep. Batherson is a bargain and Frozen Tools says his most frequent linemates at ES were still Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk in Q4. Although Batherson's SOG rate isn't sky high, it's been on a steady climb, and he also chips in nicely with Hits. Barkov and Miller probably aren't keepers since with only 40 players being kept they could still be available in the 3rd and/or 4th round, or, if not, then players of their caliber likely will be. Josi in the 6th would be more like a 5th rounder as the first pick in round 6 of your snake draft. Is he ten rounds better than Letang? Probably not, even if Josi doesn't fall all the way back to the 54-62 point pace he had in six of the previous eight seasons. My worry about Letang is if he doesn't stay with the Pens and if his run of good – for him – health was part of a pre-UFA push, then once he has a new deal in his pocket he'll go back to missing chunks of the season. Still, he's a great stat stuffer, even more so than Josi due to HIT and BLK. For me it's either Batherson or Letang. With 40% of skaters being defensemen, the math says one should be kept; and fewer total keepers makes it so there should be more tolerance to keeping older guys. As such, I'm going for Letang over Batherson. If Hughes is obtained, then he's kept in addition to Letang and Shesterkin, plus whoever of Saros or Eichel wasn't dealt for Hughes.

What if neither Eichel nor Saros is enough to land Hughes on their own? In that case, I'd try to package them both in order to get Hughes plus draft picks. What if offseason trading is not allowed, meaning Hughes cannot be obtained? Then I'd opt for keeping Shesterkin, Saros, Eichel, and Letang. Two goalies might be a bit much; however, Saros could be used as a nice in season trade chip given his round and if your team gets far enough ahead in goalie categories. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Bartosz)

I'm in a 14-team league. Each team keeps 5 players plus two "youngsters," defined as those who have played fewer than three seasons of 25+ games in the NHL, with restrictions being that at least one D must be kept but not more than two G can be kept, including among youngsters.

Starting line-ups are 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1UTIL, 2G, plus 9 Bench, and categories are, for skaters, G, A, +/-, PIM, SOG, GWG, PPPts, SHP, HIT, BLK, FOW, and, for goalies, W, SV, SV%, GAA, SO. My keepers likely will be Matthew Tkachuk, Juuse Saros, Thatcher Demko, one of Kyle Connor and Jake Guentzel, and one defenseman chosen from Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy, Kris Letang, Mikael Sergachev, Matt Dumba and Thomas Chabot. My "youngster keepers" will be Mason McTavish and another who I'll need to obtain via trade. Additional players I own and could be kept – or instead traded to get me my other youngster – include, notably, Evgeni Malkin, Brayden Point, and Pavel Buchnevich.

Where I'm struggling most is which defenseman to keep. My first instinct was Hughes, but he was fourth among these six in league scoring despite his high point total. Then I was leaning toward McAvoy; but with him already guaranteed to miss time and the Bruins suddenly looking like they might be a less potent team, I'm not sure he's the pick either. Who would you keep and why? And would you choose Connor or Guentzel, or perhaps one of the other three forwards?

Let me start with Connor vs. Guentzel. I agree they make more sense than Malkin (age, injuries), Point (plays center only and hasn't lived up to expectations), or Buchnevich (the depth of St. Louis makes it more difficult for him to truly excel). I like Guentzel a bit more of the two, as he has the better track record and is as good if not better than Connor in peripherals. But it is close.

As for which defenseman to keep, I wouldn't have guessed Hughes ranked only fourth among the six rearguards you listed, even despite your league's wide-ranging categories. After all, among d-men who'd played in 200+ games by age 22, Hughes' cumulative scoring rate stands 11th all-time, with only two (Erik Karlsson, Dion Phaneuf) who played since 1990 being in the top 25! Those ahead of him are, in order, Bobby Orr, Paul Coffey, Dennis Potvin, Brian Leetch, Ray Bourque, Phil Housley, Al MacInnis, Dave Babych, Paul Reinhart, and Larry Murphy. The first seven all had at least one 100+ point season in their careers. The issue is the best of the best were those first seven, whereas Hughes' scoring thus far has been closer to the last three, none of whom posted more than 85 points in a season.

Still, if Hughes is at worst a 70+ point defenseman who could top 80 here and there, that'd be pretty darn great. I know we're a bit spoiled in the era of Cale Makar and Adam Fox; but having a rearguard who is 22 and has a 70-point downside is quite nice. That having been said, Hughes has warts, namely his SOG, HIT, BLK, and PIM per game rates, which caused him to be ranked fourth among the rearguards you listed in your league and have shown no signs of improving. Basically, Hughes is a monster in assists and PPPts, good but not actually that great in goals, and weak in SOG, HIT, BLK and PIM. As for SHP and GWG, no defenseman will excel in those areas, so they can be ignored. Truth be told, while PPPts don't grow on trees, assists do, so Hughes' greatness is indeed overshadowed by his weaknesses.

The options thus become to nevertheless keep Hughes, or to try and trade him due to his pedigree and eye-popping offensive numbers, or to not keep him. I'd try the trade route first. Put it this way – I was quite surprised to find out he ranked only fourth among those six, which to me suggests the other GMs in your league might be blinded by his huge offensive numbers too, giving him more perceived value than actual value and allowing him to net you a good return in a trade. Keeping him would dig you in a hole in other categories, as you only have ten other skaters to compensate, which is not a lot. I think if you had 18+ skaters in your active line-ups I'd be more inclined to keep him; but with just 11 including him, the weaknesses are too glaring, making it so he should either be traded or just not kept.

Who to keep if not Hughes? McAvoy or Chabot. Chabot is "the guy" on the blueline for an Ottawa team on the rise and had racked up ten points in ten games before he got hurt last season. But he's never been a success on the PP and his banger numbers are average at best. McAvoy saw his points per game rate rise by double digits, yet just under two-thirds of his 46 assists were secondary, which is a very high rate even for a d-man. Still, His peripherals are superb, and he's shaping up to be as much of a "the guy" for Boston as Chabot is for Ottawa, which would be great…….if Boston was poised to continue to be the team they've been. McAvoy and Brad Marchand will start the season on the shelf and who knows how long it will take for post-surgery rust to wear off. Plus, Patrice Bergeron turns 37 next month and the team could deal David Pastrnak. There's a universe in which the Bs do worse offensively in 2022-23 than the Sens, and then the gap could widen, as the Bs don't have much youth to refill its cupboards. Still, I think McAvoy's peripherals are too strong not to have him be the keep. Plus, McAvoy's downside likely will be no lower than 50 points and it's not clear how high Chabot's upside is, as he's never been be able to put together a huge season, due in large part to his failings on the PP, where soon enough Jake Sanderson or Erik Brannstrom could make inroads. If Hughes isn't the D keeper, McAvoy is.

One more thing – it's a bit unusual to keep two goalies when only seven players are kept by each team and fewer than 100 are kept in total among the 14 teams, not counting youngsters, plus only five of 16 categories are goalie-related. But, Demko and Saros are entrenched starters poised to be great for a while, so I can get behind keeping them both, especially in view of the categories, active line-ups, and them arguably being more difference makers than your other keeper options. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Boris)

I'm in a 12 team roto league with rosters of 12F, 6D, 2G and categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, W, GA, SV, SHO. Each team can protect 4F, 2D, 1G plus an unlimited number of "developmental" players, those being defined as players with up to 200 games of NHL experience if a skater, or 140 games if a goalie. My goalie keeper and developmental guys are set as Juuse Saros, Spencer Knight, Ville Husso and Thatcher Demko. Forward and defense is where things get somewhat sticky, as I have too many. My forward choices are Sebastian Aho, Kyle Connor, Jonathan Huberdeau, Joe Pavelski, Andrei Svechnikov, Kirill Kaprizov, Robert Thomas, Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and Bryan Rust, with only Kaprizov and Batherson eligible as developmental keepers. For defense it's Zach Werenski, Kris Letang, Moritz Seider, Adam Boqvist, Miro Heiskanen and Darnell Nurse, with only Seider and Boqvist qualifying as developmental. Other developmental keeper options are Seth Jarvis, Philip Tomasino, Isac Lundestrom, and Jake Bean, the latter two I'll probably drop because I don't need them and in order to meet roster size requirements.

I won the league this season, and am contemplating two offseason trades. First is Nathan MacKinnon, with him likely costing me Svechnikov or Aho, plus Seider and my 1st round draft pick. I also could trade Connor for Victor Hedman plus us swapping second round picks. Would you make either trade if you were me? What if I swapped in John Carlson for Hedman?

The trade for MacKinnon doesn't get you closer to solving your dilemma of too many forward keepers, which is not ideal. Seider also is a steep price to pay given he can be protected this season and next as a developmental player. Still, Mac is a superstar, as the only other center in NHL history to average 1.3+ points per game and 4.2+ SOG per game more than twice by age 26 was some by the name of Wayne Gretzky. Mac would be a cornerstone keeper for you for probably at least the next handful of seasons. I'd make the trade; but try to get to choose either Svechnikov or Aho as the other forward, allowing you to pick the one you value more. I'd probably trade Aho given the league settings, but it's close.

As for Connor for Hedman or Carlson, let's look at the players involved. Hedman's SH% was well higher than his norm, and his secondary assist rate was 47.7%, which, although not very high, is high for him, as over the past two seasons it had been below 40%. Also, although his IPP on the PP was not far out of line in comparison to his career rate, he's tallied 62 PPPts in his last 136 games. At first, I thought that was due to Nikita Kucherov's absence from the line-up; however, Hedman's best quarter by far on the PP was Q4, when Kucherov himself had 16 PPPts. So it seems like Hedman is defining a new normal in terms of his PP scoring. Collectively I'd say this paints the portrait of Hedman likely now having 70-point downside, with point per game upside. Carlson has the second most defenseman points over the past three seasons, ahead of Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Adam Fox. However, his secondary assists rate is starting to creep upwards and I worry about the Caps' PP with Nicklas Backstrom out indefinitely and T.J. Oshie starting to show his age.

As for Connor, he established a career best by far in 2021-22. I don't see a whole lot to suggest he significantly overachieved. His IPP both overall and on the PP were career highs; however, it marked the third straight season of each increasing. Also, he took a career high four SOG per game and potted 47 goals, yet his SH% was in line with normal rates. Still, he took nearly double the shots from 31+ feet as from 15 feet or less. In fact, Connor's 111 SOG from 31+ feet were second in the entire NHL behind only Alex Ovechkin. Maybe this is Connor morphing into more of a sniper, and the comparison to Ovi is favorable? It's tough to say. If Connor did overachieve, it was not by a lot.

On paper this seems like a fair trade – a top tier defenseman for a top tier forward. What tilts me toward saying you should pull the trigger is (1) you have more of a surplus of forwards than d-men, (2) Connor's status as a winger is not of consequence in your league, (3) you're parting with Seider, so you'd want to restock your rearguard cupboard, so to speak, whereas (4) you're getting MacKinnon, who more than makes up for the loss of Connor. Yes, I'd do the deal; and it was me I'd opt for Hedman, as I fear Washington is going to start to show its age soon, with Carlson being negatively affected.

Who, then, would your six non-developmental skater keepers be? Mac, Huberdeau, Tkachuk, plus Aho or Svechnikov. On defense it's a close call between Werenski and Letang, but I'd go with Wersenski, who hit a combination of 13 posts and crossbars last season, and still potted 11 goals in just 68 games. He also posted 25 points in his last 26 games for 2021-22 despite missing time twice within the streak. All this on a Columbus team that can only get better offensively. Letang is best in leagues with HIT and BLK, plus is well older than Werenski and at risk of having all his injuries catch up to him. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Daniel)

I noticed that 25 forwards played 40+ games and shot 18%+ in 2021-22, versus totals of 16, 11, 9, 9, and 5 in the prior five full seasons. Why is this number trending higher, and how can I tell whether the fantasy-worthy players among them can shoot anywhere near this high again in 2022-23?

First off, great detective work. This is one of those things all of us should notice but either do and fail to see the significance, or just miss entirely. I checked your data and indeed there were 25 forwards who met those criteria in 2021-22, up from 16 in 2018-19, which was the most recent 82-game season, and from even lower numbers in the prior four full seasons.

Interestingly, only two of the ten best in SH% had more than 36 goals, with names among the leaders including Marcus Foligno, Rem Pitlick, Brett Howden, and Brett Mayhew. For those players, their SOG rates were low enough that we can chalk this up to being selective and accurate shooters. But what of the others? Let's examine how to determine if they were for real, or just unsustainably lucky.

The first thing we want to look at is their SH% in the past. Have they been in this range previously, or, if not, have they at least been in the vicinity or trending upward? Certainly veterans whose career rate is well below what they shot in 2021-22 would raise eyebrows. Players who fall into this camp include Ryan Johansen (22.0% for 2021-22; 10.9% career rate prior to 2021-22), Brock Nelson (21.6%; 13.1%), Gabriel Landeskog (20.0%; 11.6%), Brayden Schenn (21.6%; 13.1%), Chris Kreider (20.2%; 13.8%), Filip Forsberg (18.6%; 12.0%), Anthony Duclair (18.6%; 12.4%), Nick Schmaltz (18.7%; 12.3%), and Matt Duchene (18.9%; 12.5%).

Another factor to consider is how many crossbars or posts they hit, as the lower the number the more likely they lucked into goals. Ivan Barbashev shot 23.4%, had 26 goals, but hit only two posts and one crossbar, with teammate Brayden Schenn at 21.6% with 24 goals but hitting only two posts and zero crossbars. Kreider's 52 goals on 20.2% SH% were likely due in some part to hitting only three posts and one crossbar. Brandon Hagel potted 25 goals while shooting 20.0%, due perhaps in part to hitting two posts and no crossbars. Landeskog's 20.0% SH% netted him 30 goals, with only two posts and zero crossbars hit. Andrew Mangiapane set a career high with 35 goals, coinciding with him shooting 18.9% and hitting just two crossbars. Lastly, Duclair's 18.6% SH led to him finishing with 31 goals, due in some way to him hitting just three posts. The rest of the top 25 had their fair share of posts and crossbars.

Another metric to examine is shot distance. Presumably these players would have a high percentage of shots taken from 0-15 feet, especially as compared to 31+ feet. Of the 25, only Forsberg and Josh Norris had more SOG from 31+ feet than from 0-15 feet. On the other hand, those who were in the top 25 and for whom their SOG from 0-15 and 16-31 feet was at least triple their SOG from 31+ feet, plus who had 30+ goals, were Leon Draisaitl, Kreider, Mangiapane, Jason Robertson, Nelson, Duchene, Landeskog, Duclair, and Aleksander Barkov.

The last metric to examine would be goals by type, as those among the top 25 in SH% who had a good number of goals via tip ins, backhands, slap shots and/or deflections might be at more risk to see fewer goals in 2022-23 because those types of goals are generally seen as at least somewhat less likely to be repeatably high as compared to the other more common types of goals, most notably wrist shots and snap shots. Those in the top 25 in SH% plus the top ten for backhand goals were Barkov, Troy Terry, Mangiapane, Johansen, and Kreider, while for tip ins it was Kreider, and Barbashev, for deflections it was Tanner Jeannot, Forsberg, and Duchene, and for slap shots it was Draisaitl, Norris, and Mark Scheifele.

Looking at all the data, I'd expect fewer goals per game from Forsberg, Kreider, Mangiapane, Duclair, Johansen, Schenn, Norris, Barbashev, and Landeskog. On the other hand, I'd be less concerned about Barkov, Robertson, Draisaitl, Terry, and Scheifele. Good luck; and again, great observation!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.