Ramblings: Johansen’s Impending Regression; McCann v Gourde; Fantasy League Commissioner Tips (June 29)

Alexander MacLean

2022-06-29

I was looking into Ryan Johansen's FrozenTools page for an entirely unrelated reason, and noticed that he may be the poster-boy for regression entering next season. He tied the second-highest point-pace of his career despite seeing his ice time drop for the third straight season. Diving in deeper it looks bad no matter what numbers you check. His shooting percentage was 22%, with the next closest year having been 14%. His secondary assist percentage was an incredible 62%, which makes no sense when his most frequent linemate was Luke Kunin (22 points in 82 games). To further bump his numbers, Johansen's teammates shot 11% with him on the ice, and he started a good majority of his shifts in the offensive zone. As a 29-year-old centre, seeing his IPP trend almost steadily downward since the third season of his career is extremely concerning, and with the team's best weapon (Filip Forsberg) possibly also leaving via free agency, I wonder if Johansen can even top 40 points next season.

The one thing working in his favour is the power play efficiency. Something changed this year that saw Ry Jo post a career high 11 goals on the power play, four more than his previous high. The 24 total points with the man advantage were also the highest since 2014-15 with the Blue Jackets, and if he can keep up that kind of production on the top unit, then it could keep him from slipping fully into waiver wire fodder. Based on Forsberg's possible departure, Josi's impending regression, and how poor the Predators have been on the power play the last number of years, I don't have my hopes up. The best time for the Preds and you to trade him is now.

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In discussing trades in one of my leagues, it seems that I am about the only one there that sees Jared McCann as the better fantasy asset than Yanni Gourde. Let me explain why.

Both were selected by Seattle in the expansion draft, and are viewed as the top-two centres on the team – though that may be changing with the Matty Beniers arrival. Both are locked in for the next several years on team-friendly cap hits around $5 million per year, and have around 400 NHL games under their belts. That mark is a little more noteworthy though for Gourde, as a smaller player, who would just be approaching his breakout threshold. If he does indeed see a jump, then it would be from the 53-point pace he has put up each of the last two years, and likely not far above the luck-driven 64-point career high he put up in 2017-18. McCann on the other hand hit his threshold during the 2019-20 season, and in the two years since, has put up his two best seasons with 61 and 55 points respectively.

All of that paints the picture of two very similar performers, and that is born out by the overall stats comparison over the last few years. (Click here to see the full comparison page.) The two were extremely close in fantasy stats last year, with McCann taking an edge in the underlying numbers, and really that's not a surprise. McCann has always been supported by the advanced stats numbers, though it's a chicken and egg situation with whether that's as a result of favourable deployment, or whether the deployment has been earned by the performance. Either way, McCann saw some of the most prime minutes on the team last year, and with a similar lineup returning, the same should be seen this coming season. By that same token, we can expect Gourde to remain as the team's main defensive centre, shouldering a lot of the heavy matchups, and taking as many defensive zone draws as he can manage.

From that point, as Seattle's tide slowly rises towards being a better team over the next five years after they bottom out in 2023 for Connor Bedard, which of Gourde or McCann will be the boat lifted the highest. The odds are that honour will go to McCann, as the one seeing those extra minutes in the offensive zone and against the lesser competition, because that's where Seattle's other offensive talents are going to be playing as well, and where more of the points are going to come. Gourde is a great player, and has an excellent reputation from his time in Tampa, but his situation is Seattle is completely different, and has to be treated as such.

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A lot of us here are the more involved fantasy owners, and as a result we end up organizing leagues for our friends, taking over vacant commissioner spots, and generally helping with the running of leagues. As a commissioner of many different leagues of various shapes and sizes over the years, I thought it might be helpful to share a few lessons and tips I have picked up along the way. The smoother that the season goes from an admin and commissioner perspective, the more fun it can be, and the more time you have to spend researching players instead of debating rules.

When to discuss and modify rules:

Rules discussion and debate can be a big sticking point in any fantasy league. Whether the rules are unclear, don't cover a specific occurrence, or just need an update, there are times when a rule discussion is needed. When possible, I have found it much more manageable to discuss and implement rule changes during the offseason, even if the rule change is decided upon ahead of time, they will not take effect until then. This keeps things steady during the season where everyone has already made assumptions for the year, player values don't change drastically from day to day, and

In the offseason there is also time to draw out rule discussions, put things to a vote, field other ideas, and come to a collective compromise. Often, a consensus between all the managers in a league is impossible, and at that point in falls on the commissioner to either make a ruling, or determine what kind of majority is needed to move a rule forward. Typically details and housekeeping can be completed just by the commissioner or by a simple majority, but often these rule changes concern player eligibility, scoring settings, or variations on league play. For those types of heavy rules that have a larger impact on the value of players and the style of play, a simple 51% majority doesn't sit well with some. For some rules, such as increasing the value of goalie wins, or adding a category like blocks, it disproportionally can help or hinder certain GMs, so you want to be looking at as close to a majority as possible to keep things running smoothly in your league.

How to mediate issues:

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Mediating issues such as whether a trade is fair, who has rights to sign an FA, or whether a specific move was done in good conscience is never an easy thing. Having enforceable penalties for these things helps along the way when they come up, but the best thing you can do is have a good group of GMs in the league to start with, meaning these issues crop up a lot less. Eventually something does happen though, and the end decisions come down to the way you want to run your league. The approach largely depends on the group of GMs and type of league you want to run. If this is a more casual league with your friends, you may be able to let things slide, or be more lenient in reversing a move with no punishment. However, in league with more serious managers, especially those you don't know outside of the league keeping everyone in line is key, because when a manager sees that the worst that can happen is they leave and find another league, they have no inclination to keep themselves in line.

Having an assistant GM or some other committee of some kind to discuss with is a great start, or you can tell the time you need a little time to think on it (never a bad thing) and in that time discussing with some other trusted voices around the DobberHockey or other communities. The keys to the decision making always come down to the following:

-Making decisions that will be able to be repeated for future infractions, and keep consistent with previous rulings

-Taking time to understand all of the factors of the situation, and impacts of the repercussions

-Understanding how the managers in your league feel as things progress

It's a thankless job being a commissioner, but someone has to do it, and having some patience and common sense really helps. If you have any tips or tricks as a commissioner, drop them in the comments!

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Find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments. Until next Wednesday!

3 Comments

  1. goose191919 2022-06-29 at 01:56

    Commissioner of our keeper league going into our 18th season now. Some advice for the noobs:
    1. Alex is right, start with a good group of people as it will save you lots of trouble down the road.
    2. Don’t make you league dues too high.
    3. Document everything. We use a Google doc for all of our history. There have been too many times that I drank too much during our GM meeting and forgot what we decided on.
    4. We do our GM meeting the day before our draft but most things decided on collectively gets implemented the next year.
    5. Table any issues until the off-season. Unless something is REALLY broken, don’t try to fix it or butt in on any issues.
    6. Be on top of the guys slacking on logging in. It really sucks when a team checks out early and doesn’t set their lineup when they’d actually beat someone head to head that you need to lose. Keep everyone engaged.

  2. FrozenFoot12 2022-06-29 at 11:11

    If i’m reading this correctly, McCann only had 13:19 in even strength ice time vs Gourde 14:57. Given how bad Seattle is, do you see McCann’s even strength ice time increasing? Would love to get an additional 60 seconds per game out there.

    • Alexander MacLean 2022-07-07 at 11:19

      That ice time number should increase, and with it the ceiling goes up, but there wasn’t really a good reason it was down so low in the first place, and not much has changed in Seattle to expect something different.

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