Ramblings: More on Fiala, Anderson Back in Buffalo, Puljujarvi to be Traded? (Jul 1)

Ian Gooding

2022-07-01

Happy Canada Day! We've become so used to that day becoming signing day throughout the years, but of course COVID altered the normal plan. Your normal Canada Day plans (or early Fourth of July plans) of BBQ, beer, celebrations, or simply general relaxation were always accompanied with a flurry of signings. As it stands now, those signings will be on the otherwise unspectacular midweek day of July 13.

The first major trade to go down this offseason was Kevin Fiala moving to LA. I broke down the fantasy impact here.

As I mentioned in the article, Fiala will be given all the opportunity in the world to be a top-line scorer on the Kings. He didn't necessarily have that in Minnesota, as Kirill Kaprizov is the offensive engine of that team and plays the same position. However, Fiala did receive sheltered offensive minutes in Minny (56 OZ% in 2021-22, over 50 OZ% throughout his career), which placed him in situations where he could score.

In addition, the Kings' top two centers already play a more defensive role based on their two-way abilities. Anze Kopitar has been a sub-50 OZ% over his last five seasons (47.6 OZ% in 2021-22), while Phillip Danault has been a sub-50 OZ% player throughout his career (49.6 OZ% in 2021-22). That's going to naturally position Fiala into fewer scoring opportunities. So I'm not quite there on this trade helping Fiala tremendously from where he is now. 85 points is a damn good season and may already be representative of his upside.

If you are counting on Fiala next season, you may want to lower your expectations during the first half of the season (but raise them for the second half!)

2020-21: 1st half – 11 PTS in 22 GP; 2nd half – 29 PTS in 28 GP

2021-22: 1st half – 29 PTS in 38 GP; 2nd half – 56 PTS in 44 GP

If Mike Smith decides to retire, at least one over-40 goalie will still be patrolling an NHL net next season. The Buffalo Sabres have brought back Craig Anderson for one more season at a cap hit of $1.5 million.

Aside from maybe Arizona goalies, Anderson was at the bottom of fantasy draft lists last season and rightfully so because of his age and the fact that he plays for the Sabres. However, his 45.2 QS% was better than that of Carter Hart, Alex Nedeljkovic, Robin Lehner, and Linus Ullmark. Granted, all except maybe Ullmark had notably rough seasons, but they were all drafted in a lot more leagues. Anderson performed admirably given the situation, and he may not be that terrible an option on a Sabres team that appears to be slowly but surely on the rise.  

I'd have to assume Anderson battles Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen for starts next season if the latter plays in the NHL. However, I also wouldn't be shocked if the Sabres sign another goalie during free agency, since this definitely isn't the league's strongest tandem. Because of injuries, the Sabres burned through six goalies last season, so their goalie situation is still a little difficult to decipher.

The Dallas Stars have given Scott Wedgewood a two-year contract extension. At age 29, Wedgewood played his highest number of NHL games (37) in a season split between Arizona, New Jersey, and Dallas. As Dobber keeps saying, goalies take a while.

With Jake Oettinger now cemented as the full-time starter, Wedgewood should at least compete with Anton Khudobin for the backup job and provide the Stars with organizational goaltending depth. Khudobin was sent to the AHL last season and underwent hip surgery in March, so I would think the Stars are exploring buyout or trade options for Khudobin and his $3.33 million contract, which has one year remaining.   

I don't know exactly how long Anthony Duclair will need to recover from his Achilles tendon injury, but it sounds like it could cut into the start of the regular season. Duclair had just recorded career bests in both goals (31) and assists (27), which was an awesome return for me in the one league where I drafted him 252nd overall last season. In the near term, the injury could free up some cap space for the Panthers to make a stronger pitch at Claude Giroux, Mason Marchment, and Ben Chiarot, all of whom are UFAs.

According to Elliotte Friedman, the Tampa Bay Lightning are reportedly shopping Ryan McDonagh. Back when I was forecasting who Seattle might draft, I thought the Bolts might leave McDonagh and his $6.75 million cap hit unprotected. They decided not to and the Kraken selected Yanni Gourde instead. Obviously this is a champagne problem and the Lightning would rather not lose McDonagh, but it speaks to the cost of keeping the elite pieces together.

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Related to that, Darren Dreger is reporting that the Lightning are also close to signing Nick Paul to a multi-year agreement. Friedman said the Bolts are also trying to retain Ondrej Palat and Jan Rutta.

Not only did we learn who will be the Red Wings' new coach, but we also learned the identity of the guy often standing next to Jon Cooper throughout the playoffs. The Wings have hired former Lightning assistant coach Derek Lalonde to be their new head coach. The obvious connection here is Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman, who was once the Lightning GM.

Lalonde does not have any NHL coaching experience aside from filling in for Cooper when the Lightning bench boss was in COVID protocol. However, he is a former goalie, and that position was a problem for the Red Wings last season. I explained that further as a reason that the Wings decided to move on from Blashill (Fantasy Take: Red Wings Not Renewing Blashill).

This could be the weekend where a bunch of coaching vacancies are filled. The Bruins are rumored to be getting close to hiring Jim Montgomery as their new head coach. In Winnipeg, the Jets are believed to be zeroing in on their preferred candidate, which might be Rick Tocchet.

According to Mark Spector, Jesse Puljujarvi is ready for a fresh start elsewhere, and the Oilers seem willing to oblige. Puljujarvi had a career-best 0.55 PTS/GP (36 PTS in 65 GP), and early in the season it had looked like he had finally arrived (23 PTS in 28 GP). Yet Pool Party sprung a leak following a bout with COVID just before Christmas (4 G and 13 PTS in 37 GP), and he seemed invisible in the playoffs (3 PTS in 16 GP).

If you apply the Breakout Threshold theory to the 6-4 Puljujarvi, he will still need about another 140 games before he starts to hit his stride. Although both player and team may have simply reached the point of no return, another team might benefit from the Oilers' lack of patience. Of course, there's the Valeri Nichushkin comparison, as the Avalanche forward finally found his game in a season where he reached 400 games. The downside for those of you waiting on Puljujarvi is that he has already been given his reps with Connor McDavid, and he may never receive another opportunity like that with another team.

In a minor deal, the Blue Jackets have acquired Mathieu Olivier from the Predators for a 2022 fourth-round pick. Olivier should provide some grit for the Blue Jackets with an average of over two hits per game in each of his three NHL seasons. However, he does not offer much in the way of scoring.  

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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