Eastern Edge: Fantasy Implications From The Top Of The 2022 Draft
Brennan Des
2022-07-05
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss predictions for Thursday's NHL entry draft, as well as the fantasy implications of such predictions.
Montreal's First Overall Pick
On Monday, Habs GM Kent Hughes told the media that Shane Wright, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Logan Cooley all remain potential candidates for the team's first overall pick. Despite those public comments, I'd be surprised if the Habs didn't select Wright on Thursday. In a league where most contending teams have two strong centers, the Habs would be wise to select the draft's most highly touted centerman, creating a promising 1-2 punch down the middle with Shane Wright and Nick Suzuki. At present, it doesn't seem like anyone in the organization, aside from Suzuki, could fill the role of top-six center. Christian Dvorak, Jake Evans and Ryan Poehling all seem better suited for roles in the bottom-six. Although the team lacks options at center, they have a fair bit of depth on the wings, both on the current roster and in the prospect pipeline. In addition, good wingers tend to be more common than good centers. Based on those realities, I don't think it makes sense for Montreal to take Juraj Slafkovsky – a winger who may have higher ceiling than Wright, but also a lower floor.
Based on interviews, Wright seems like the most mature of the top-pick candidates. He's had the spotlight on him from a young age and has learned how to carry himself in the public eye – an important trait when playing for one of the league's most passionate fanbases. He's a cerebral player with great hockey IQ, which makes him a perfect apprentice for head coach Martin St. Louis (MSL), who places an emphasis on decision-making, thinking through the game, and constantly developing.
Now that we've established why it makes sense for Montreal to pick Wright, let's discuss the potential fantasy implications of such a pick. If Wright plays in Montreal next year, I'd be most interested in the impact he'd have on the players around him. I imagine someone like Christian Dvorak, who tallied an impressive 17 points in 22 games under MSL last year, would be forced into more difficult minutes in order to make Wright's transition to the NHL a bit easier. Given Wright's highly regarded two-way play, I wonder if he'd find success beside Brendan Gallagher, a strong and hard-working two-way force who had great chemistry with elite two-way center Phillip Danault in recent years. I know injuries have hindered Gallagher lately, but I think a full offseason could help him return to full health, allowing him to be an impact player again. With Wright and Gallagher cognisant of defense, maybe that line could be rounded out by an offensively minded shooter like Mike Hoffman? Although it's fun to discuss hypotheticals, with the team in the early stages of a rebuild, I expect we'll see a few different line combinations as the Canadiens evaluate which players will be a part of the future and which won't. I'd rather not go on record with a point projection for Wright when so much is still up in the air. However, I will predict that if he's playing for the Habs next year, he'll quickly earn coach MSL's trust, and will end up seeing more ice time and playing a bigger role than your typical rookie.
New Jersey's Second Overall Pick
In my little world where the Canadiens draft Shane Wright first overall, I think it logically follows that the Devils take Juraj Slafkovsky second. Unlike the Canadiens, the Devils already have a strong young center core with Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes and Dawson Mercer. As a result, there isn't a strong need for another center like Logan Cooley. New Jersey also has a strong defensive core, headlined by Dougie Hamilton and supplemented by effective, under-the-radar players like Ryan Graves, Jonas Siegenthaler and Damon Severson. They also have some great young talent on the blueline in the form of Luke Hughes and Ty Smith. As a result, the Devils don't really need to use their second overall pick on a defenseman like Simon Nemec or David Jiricek this Thursday.
While the Devils are all set at center and defense, they don't exactly have an abundance of talent on the wings. Jesper Bratt is the only player I'd classify as a bonafide top-line winger, with the rest of New Jersey's wingers looking more like middle-six options. Although there's a bit more risk associated with drafting winger Juraj Slafkovsky, who began his ascension up the prospect rankings recently, I think the Devils have built a solid enough foundation that they can afford to take a risk on the player who seems to have the highest upside of this draft class. Slafkovksy brings a unique combination of size, speed, and puck skill, giving the Devils a skillset that they don't currently have in the lineup – one that would likely work beside either Hischier or Hughes.
From a fantasy perspective, if Slafkovsky cracks New Jersey's roster next season, I'd be incredibly excited to see what he'll be able to do as part of a talented top-six. However, be careful not to take him too early in fantasy drafts. For rookies with high pedigree, we often get caught up in projected upside and forget that most of them will need some time to adapt to the NHL. A 60-point season would be considered great for most rookies, but there are plenty of NHL veterans who reliably achieve the same standard, despite being taken after those rookies during fantasy drafts.
If the Devils do draft Slafkovsky, a final thing to keep in mind would be the impact that such a decision would have on the team's other wingers. Bratt's spot in the top-six is solidified, and I imagine Sharangovich will also stay in the top-six due to his familiarity with Jack Hughes. If Slafkovsky also plays in the top-six, that leaves just one opening in the top two lines, which may put Pavel Zacha, Alexander Holtz, Tomas Tatar and/or Dawson Mercer in an unfavourable position next year. With than being said, the Devils have enough talent to run a strong third line, so it shouldn't be the end of the world for whoever doesn't crack the top-six.