Ramblings: Draft Favourites; Signing Recaps; Grier, Wickenheiser, Campbell & More (July 6)

Alexander MacLean

2022-07-06

As the resident Nashville fan, I have to say that when I saw the Ryan McDonagh trade my immediate reaction was disappointment. To me it meant the team was going to continue to toil as a bubble playoff team, they were going to continue to spend money un-wisely, and they didn't have a full understanding of the leverage they had in taking cap from Tampa, nor did they somehow realize the leverage they had with the Phillipe Myers contract as a potential buyout and cap saving maneuver for another team.

Having some time to digest things, the Preds do become a better team with the move, and that's the whole point of making a trade. It may not be perfect for either side, but it could turn out to be a bit of a win for both. Gooding and Cliffy both gave their insights into the fantasy ripples, so I won't dive very far down that rabbit hole. I do think this will keep the Preds inside the playoff picture, as their defensive depth was a big issue last season. Adding Mcdonagh really solidifies the defensive end of things, and pushes the other players down the list into more suitable roles.

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The NHL draft begins tomorrow, and there's a few notes I want to get out there before it gets underway. But first, if you didn't pick it up, you can do so here.

I put out my rankings at the time back in May, and things have changed a bit since then, though not really as much as you may expect. A few favourites of mine relative to where they are likely to be picked include Noah Ostlund, Denton Mateychuk, Jagger Firkus, Lane Hutson, and Isaac Howard. Hoping that the Preds (#17) and the Leafs (#25) can each pick one up, as well as me in my cap league where I have a first rounder (#27).

Speaking of, after having dealt away the #10 and #21 picks in a blockbuster, I was glad to recoup pick #27 in a separate deal, as that's right around where my main tier for fantasy relevance starts to drop off this year. There's a top-three with Wright, Cooley, and Slaf, a pretty clear top-nine with Nemec, Jiricek, Savoie, Gauthier, Kemell, and Lekkerimaki, before it levels out and you could make a case for about any of the next 18 guys to bring us to 27.

I expect there to be a few defencemen that rise up the draft board, seeing five or six go in the top 15 picks, with Simon Nemec also my bet to jump into the top-three. From there, I expect a few outliers based on size in Lian Bischel and Lane Hutson going early into the 20s, with the first round closing out with a total of 11 defencemen drafted (the last time we saw double digits was 2018 with 14 defencemen selected in the first round). That means there will be quite a few forwards that slide. Just because they fall in the NHL draft though, doesn’t mean you have to knock them down your own rankings, it just means you now have a better shot at nabbing your guys with a slightly later pick. Use that perception to your advantage!

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It was also a big news day yesterday with a few hirings around the hockey world. The most notable one was Mike Grier being named the new Sharks GM, and in doing so, becoming the first Black GM in NHL history. Stick taps to him, though he has a long and difficult road ahead sorting out the mess that he is being left both on the cap and on the roster.

The first move is going to be hiring a coach, but the second order of business has to be trading a goalie (my money is on Adin Hill – a guy to keep an eye on as a possible breakout starter next year). Following that, moving one of Erik Karlsson or Brent Burns has to be considered, and if it happens it would do wonders for the fantasy value of both.

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Also in the news cycle, we had two amazing women hired into important roles, with Dr. Hayley Wickenheiser named assistant GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs. She becomes the fourth female assistant GM in NHL history, and the third active one. As a four-time gold medalist among a long list of other achievements, she brings a wealth of knowledge to the Leafs who are still looking to get over the hump.

The Coachella Valley Firebirds (yes you read that right, it's the Kraken's new AHL affiliate) hired Jessica Campbell as an assistant coach. She becomes the first woman to coach in the AHL. IT won't be an easy job as the Kraken have one of the most barren prospect pools in the league, though we'll see what they can do to change that at the draft this year. They went heavy with overagers last year, so they could have an eye on that and draft a few 20-year-olds this year as well who can jump straight to the AHL.

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It was again strange to watch July 1st come and go with no free-agency opening, but it got my mind onto it, and I have a lot of thoughts that I want to share. It's going to be a little dry and repetitive for a Ramblings though, so I'll end up running a Twitter thread on it once I have time to gather my thoughts all in one place. Keep an eye out for it on Twitter where you can find me @alexdmaclean.

That thread is likely going to be filled with my thoughts on upcoming free-agents, my contract projections for them, and some thoughts both on the contract options and what the player provides. There have also been a few players that won't be mentioned though, as they signed contracts since I released my projections list. Let's go through a few of them now:

Patrice Bergeron – Rumoured

Not officially signed yet, but word is he's coming back to Boston on a one-year deal worth around the $6.8 million he was making the last few seasons. Boston needs him because they don't have anyone else that could step into that top-line C role. He may only play 60 games, but he's still very fantasy-worthy.

Brock Boeser – Vancouver Canucks: Four years at $6.65 million per year

Boeser kept his salary lower than what his qualifying offer would have gone, as it seems like him and the Canucks have a good fit. He's a bargain at that price, assuming he can stay on the ice the whole season, and it was a difficult year for him away from the rink.

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My projections had him at around $6 million, so what makes him a bargain at 110% of that price? Well with Boeser he is held down due to a couple of injuries, and with the entire team having had a slow start last year. These were his stats by quarter last season.

QuarterGPGAPTSSOGPPPPPTOITOI
1194594733:2318:52
21764105743:2219:31
32189175193:0117:39
41455104012:2518:33

He should be closer to the 65-point guy who can pot at least 35 goals that we saw in the second half of the season. If Elias Pettersson can regain his top form, then there's a possibility to see him even hit 75+ for the first time.

Kevin Fiala – LA Kings: Seven years at $7.875 million per year

Fiala got a big deal from the LA Kings, and you often see bigger contract than expected when players are signed immediately after being traded. It gives the agent a lot of leverage, so that's I think why we saw this deal in the high sevens rather than the high-six/low-seven area.

Likely lining up on 35-year-old Anze Kopitar's wing, he shouldn't have to carry a Frederick Gaudreau-level player around anymore, and we could see his point totals pop. It should also keep Kopitar relevant as the age-related decline starts to kick in.

Nick Paul – Tampa Bay Lightning: Seven years at $3.15 million per year

The Lightning couldn't re-sign Barclay Goodrow to a similar contract last summer, but now they have the younger, cheaper, and likely better version of him locked in almost to the end of the decade. A solid move for Tampa, though for the foreseeable future for Paul it means he maxes out as a middle-six winger with minimal power play time.

Timothy Liljegren – Toronto Maple Leafs: Two years at $1.4 million per year

The Leafs learned a lesson here with Justin Holl, and locked up Liljegren to a slightly more team friendly deal. It was almost dead-on the $1.39 million he was projected for with my system, so I see it as a very fair deal. Not hugely fantasy noteworthy, but it is fun to see my numbers hit this one on the nose, which helps me feel comfortable using the other numbers it spits out for my offseason planning.

Sammy Blais – New York Rangers: One year at $1.55 million

Projected at $2.1 million in my system, which would have made sense on a two-or-three-year deal, Blais bet on himself with a one-year pact that kept the AAV down. If healthy, he should be a solid middle-six winger, though if you compare him to the top-line winger he was inexplicably traded for (Pavel Buchnevich), you'll always be wanting more.

Chris Wideman – Montreal Canadiens: One year at $750K

On top of those skaters, Casey DeSmith was just signed yesterday to a $1.8 million extension for each of the next two years. That should about quash the rumours of a Marc-Andre Fleury reunion, and hopefully it makes the Penguins' cap outlook clearer so that they can get a move on with inevitably re-upping Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin.

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Enjoy the draft, and I'll see you next Wednesday for some recap thoughts, and to set up free agency opening up!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MIN Players
20.0 MATS ZUCCARELLO MARCO ROSSI KIRILL KAPRIZOV
17.3 MARCUS JOHANSSON FREDERICK GAUDREAU MATT BOLDY
17.1 MARAT KHUSNUTDINOV RYAN HARTMAN MARCUS FOLIGNO

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