Capped: High-End Restricted Free Agents, Like Laine, Dubois, and Tkachuk
Jamie Molloy
2022-07-07
With free agency starting on the 13th of this month, I figured its time to begin talking about some of the bigger named RFA's that are out there. I have discussed some of the UFA's in prior weeks articles so feel free to check those out as well. After going through the list of RFA's that we have this summer, I realized that this is a high-end group of players.
We are slowly getting into the more exciting part of the offseason; the draft is starting tonight (as of the day that this article was released) and for some fans it can be stressful to see their team not take the players that they want. Much like us fantasy GM's, the real-life General Managers also have their preferences to certain players, the schemes they like to construct, etc. Fast forward to July 13th, and we are at the start of Free Agency where there is expected to be some sizable movement based on the latest rumors from the insiders.
When it comes to displaying stats for these players, I plan on showing their most recent season stats, along with their career totals because when GM's hand out contracts they base it on a body of work, and not just that one season. Even though it may seem like that sometimes based on some of the ludicrous contracts that have been handed out over the years due to a player having a career year in their contract year.
* Currently in ESPN it isn't allowing me to see the roster percentages, not sure if that's just on my end, but for the time being I won't be displaying any roster percentages until I can at least get the data for at least two different fantasy platforms *
* Most recent season stats are displayed first, followed by the career stats *
#1) Patrik Laine – LW – Columbus Blue Jackets
Contract Prior To RFA Status – $7.5M AAV – 1 Year
Games | Goals | Assists | Shots | Powerplay | Shorthanded | Hits | Blocks | Faceoff % | TOI |
56 | 26 | 30 | 167 | 14 | 0 | 34 | 13 | 36.8% | 18:50 |
407 | 176 | 151 | 1165 | 105 | 0 | 391 | 183 | 31.3% | 17:49 |
A player who has had a rocky start to his career off the ice, there were reports of him having some attitude issues, work ethic issues, etc, but at the end of day Patrik Laine is one of the more skilled players in the league. With his 0.43 goals per game throughout his career, and just coming off a point-per-game season, I would assume he will be making at least the same that he got this season. This is the first time that Laine finished as a point-per-game player in his career, and it happened while playing on a Columbus team that arguably has lesser talent to support him versus what the Jets were rostering around him. When you're allowed to have more freedom on the ice, be given the nod of confidence from your coaching staff, and having a fresh start, you can provide a huge boost to a player's drive and overall gameplay. We all know what we're getting with Laine as he's a shoot-first player who should be pushing close to 40 goals every season. He managed to pace 38 goals through a full 82-game season which is very impressive in its own; there aren't many 35+ goal scorers from year-to-year. I would expect Laine to be one of the few to regularly hit that amount. Back in May, there was an article wrote on NHL.com called 'Laine says signing contract with Blue Jackets shouldn't be issue', to summarize it briefly it basically said both sides do want to reach a contract with each other. With the crop of younger players coming up around Laine, like Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger being the main two, I would expect him to be insulated well as he should be the star of the team going forward. Overall, Laine is a fantastic fantasy asset to own regardless of the league's format given his overall performance on the offensive side of the game. I anticipate his contract will be as low as $8M, but it really depends on the overall term.
#2) Matthew Tkachuk – LW – Calgary Flames
Contract Prior To RFA Status – $7M AAV – 3 Years
Games | Goals | Assists | Shots | Powerplay | Shorthanded | Hits | Blocks | Faceoff % | TOI |
82 | 42 | 62 | 253 | 29 | 0 | 93 | 20 | 46.5% | 17:54 |
431 | 152 | 230 | 1129 | 117 | 0 | 596 | 102 | 41.1% | 17:16 |
Matthew Tkachuk should rightfully be paid however much he asks for by the Calgary Flames, there was a stretch for a long time where the Flames were not very good. We're starting to see the Flames become dangerous again like they were many moons ago, and it really starts with a player like Tkachuk. He crushed his previous career highs in goals, assists, and points from the 2018-19 season where he had 34 goals, 43 assists, for a total of 77 points in 80 games. He finished with nearly 30 more points than what he did at his previous career highs, and while that cannot solely be attributed to Tkachuk, it doesn't really matter. At the end of the day, he managed to eclipse 100 points and whether you're playing with the best players in the world on your line or playing with depth players, to be able to score 100 points in the NHL is an incredible feat and nobody can propel another player to hit that level (in my opinion). While there are many rumors of Gaudreau possibly leaving the Flames, they had a lot of contract issues as is. They have a couple bad contracts that really weigh them down to have to true flexibility that some of the other top teams have. For a player who will turn 25 in December, he has already had an impressive career, at this moment he sits just 49 points shy of being a point-a-game player through his young career. Realistically speaking, if Tkachuk asked for $10M per season he should get it. At this point he is a fan favorite, one of the more proficient players at his position, he was on the second All-Star team behind Marner at right wing.
#3) Pierre-Luc Dubois – LW – Winnipeg Jets
Contract Prior To RFA Status – $5M AAV – 2 Years
Games | Goals | Assists | Shots | Powerplay | Shorthanded | Hits | Blocks | Faceoff % | TOI |
81 | 28 | 32 | 233 | 19 | 0 | 112 | 43 | 46.9% | 18:55 |
361 | 102 | 137 | 806 | 59 | 0 | 498 | 217 | 44.6% | 17:26 |
Dubois had a promising start to his NHL career when he finished 8th in Calder voting as a rookie with the Blue Jackets having 48 points across 82 games (20 goals, 28 assists). He got his way out of Columbus and began his journey with the Winnipeg Jets as of last season. After finishing just 1 point shy of his career high, it seems as though Dubois has emerged as one of the better second line centers in the league, I would say he has returned to what he was back in his earlier seasons. The Winnipeg Jets seem to have bad luck with players wanting to stay there long term as of late, Laine wanted out of Winnipeg, and on June 22nd it was reported that 'Dubois informs Jets he plans to test free agency in 2024, team wants to keep him'. There's still a lot of time between now and then obviously, but its never a good sign to see a player want to explore their options after playing 122 games with the team in total. I'm not 100% sure how this will affect his upcoming contract in terms of the length, but I imagine that he is looking to sign a 1–2-year deal based on him looking to test the market in the summer of 2024. His overall offensive numbers haven't been spectacular for a former third overall draft pick, but in saying that he hasn't really had the utmost opportunity to display his skills with great players around him. He plays second fiddle to the main players in Winnipeg currently, and back when he was on Columbus, he didn't really have much support alongside of him as that was a bit more of a bare Blue Jackets team. I'd imagine he will receive anywhere from $6M-$8M per season based on his production, luckily for the Jets they don't have many other RFA/UFA's that will demand the level of money that Dubois is likely to earn.
#4) Dylan Strome – C – Chicago Blackhawks
Contract Prior To RFA Status – $3M AAV – 2 Years
Games | Goals | Assists | Shots | Powerplay | Shorthanded | Hits | Blocks | Faceoff % | TOI |
69 | 22 | 26 | 126 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 52.3% | 17:26 |
273 | 67 | 103 | 475 | 48 | 0 | 65 | 141 | 48.6% | 16:02 |
In a redraft of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, we all know Strome wouldn't go third overall again, but with that said I do believe that there is still something there in Dylan Strome. When he began in Arizona he was more-so thrown to the wolves and forced to fend for himself when he was in NHL, he played more in the AHL while under contract with Arizona than what he did in the NHL for them. As a member of the Chicago Blackhawks Strome began to catch fire, starting out he had 51 points through 58 games in his first season with them. With the Blackhawks, he has played in 225 games, and has scored a total of 154 points (60 goals, 94 assists), with that comes a 0.68 points-per-game stat-line in his short tenure with the Blackhawks. This is a player that was playing up and down the lineup in Chicago, he was deployed in a role that didn't suit him in the 2020-21 season (being played like a two-way forward when he is anything but that). Whenever Strome was being deployed in a primarily offensive role, he was putting up points. While that could be attributed to who he was playing with, like I said earlier, the individual player putting up points is contributing too, in a lot of ways. Being able to process the game at a quick pace, having the foot speed, and being able to play hockey while skating at top speed all makes a difference. Not every player can play with elite players, Strome has that quality in my opinion. He played a total of 435:15 minutes with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat this year, and during their time together the trio put up 31 goals and allowed 22, along with generating 251 shots for. Realistically, there are a lot of different ways I could see a Strome contract going this summer. He could get a long-term deal and sign for a smaller amount of cap space and have a team friendly deal with term, or he could sign a 'bridge deal' (shorter number of years, higher AAV). He's going to make more than what he was getting now, and I'm not entirely sure where to peg Strome currently. I could see him getting as low as $4M, depending on the length of the deal, or as high as $5.5M-$6M.
Like I said, there's a lot of good RFA's this year along with some topflight UFA's as well. I will do my best to detail as many of them as I can going forward along with trying to project some numbers and what my estimates and predications are for upcoming contracts.
If you want to have any questions answered or interact with me, please feel free to interact with me on the forums or in the comments of the articles, or on Twitter @JamieMolloy_DH.