Fantasy Take: Alexander Georgiev Goes To Colorado

Michael Clifford

2022-07-07

It was all but certain that New York Rangers goalie Alexandar Georgiev would be traded this offseason. Starter Igor Shesterkin has cemented himself as one of, if not the, top goalie in the world. The Rangers have just $10M in cap space with key free agents like Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano left to sign, among some depth roles. That trade came to fruition on Draft Day:

 Two thirds and a fifth doesn't sound like a bad deal for a backup goalie. Let's break this down.

What Colorado Gets

This all but closes the door on Darcy Kuemper returning. The team will have both Georgiev and Pavel Françouz under contract for 2021-22 with Justus Annunen having just complete his first full season in the AHL. They just won the Stanley Cup, going 16-4 in 20 games, with Kuemper giving them .902 goaltending. Some free agents moving on might change the composition of the roster, but the team clearly feels as if they can still contend without elite goaltending.

A funny thing when going through Georgiev's stats: his overall save percentage has declined all five seasons he's been in the NHL, bottoming out at .893 across 28 starts (33 games) in 2021-22. But if we look at his entire body of work, all 117 starts and 129 appearances, by Evolving Hockey, he's had a better Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) than guys like Jack Campbell, Petr Mrazek, Elvis Merzlikins, and Jake Allen. Not that those are bona fide, top-tier starters, but they're all NHL goalies, and at least backups. Georgiev did not have a good 2021-22 by any measure, but that only accounts for 24% of his career starts. The more recent sample is always more relevant, but we can't discount that he was good/average through four seasons.

That's all Colorado really needs here, too. It is doubtful that Françouz is a lock 60-start goalie right away, so they'll look for Georgiev to be average in 30-ish starts. There is also the possibility that he out-performs the incumbent goalie through the season and becomes the more favoured goalie himself. It was hard to see that happening back in New York. At the least, it could realistically happen here. For now, though, this makes Françouz the 1A in a 1A/1B scenario, so look for him to blow past his career-high of 30 starts set in COVID 2021.

In all, the Avalanche get a goalie who should at least be a serviceable backup and has over 100 games of NHL experience at the age of 26. If things go well, he could be there for several seasons, maybe even as a starter. I think he's destined for backup duty, but goalies are weird and so is this league.

The Rangers have a couple of prospect goalies in Dylan Garand and Olof Lindbom who could step in as backups, but it seems far more likely they look for a veteran here. Maybe they give Adam Huska a shot coming out of the AHL, but this team has Cup aspirations, and it doesn't seem likely they give Shesterkin a backup with zero NHL experience. It does give them that possibility, though.

Who this helps

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Pavel Françouz

Alexandar Georgiev

Dylan Garand

Who This Hurts

Justus Annunen

One Comment

  1. Jeffrey Zon 2022-07-07 at 14:16

    Seeing as how there aren’t any other dominant cup winning teams for Kuemper to sign with, I’d say this hurts Kuemper the most.

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