Fantasy Take: Vegas Dumps Pacioretty, Carolina Offers Him A Rose

Michael Clifford

2022-07-13

The biggest shocker of Free Agent Frenzy had nothing to do with free agents, or at least not directly. It was the trade of Max Pacioretty and Dylan Coghlan to Carolina in exchange for future considerations. Those aren't typos, it was a straight cap dump:

Let's break this down.

What Carolina Gets

While Pacioretty has just one year left on his deal, with a $7M AAV, he is still a top-line scorer. He was injured for most of 2021-22 but still had 19 goals and 37 points in 39 games. In fact, he still finished fourth on the team in goals despite missing over half the campaign. Going back three seasons, he has 75 goals in 158 games, or nearly a 40-goal pace. That is… pretty good.

Aside from his superlative offensive play, he's still a good defensive winger. Not great by any means, but his impacts at both ends, from Evolving Hockey, look good-to-elite from 2019-22:

When he's healthy – and he did miss nearly 25% of his games during his Vegas tenure – Pacioretty is a top-line left winger, full stop. He does only have one year left, but that's probably what enticed Carolina. This also solidifies their top-4 winger mix of Pacioretty, Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, and Seth Jarvis. They still have to figure out their centre situation – it does seem they're going with a duo of Kotkaniemi/Staal in the middle-6 – but the winger situation is elite and abundant. This was a top-10 scoring team in 2021-22 and they should be again.

They may not even have to change much on the power play. Maybe move a guy or two around, but just moving Pacioretty into Vincent Trocheck's spot – though not necessarily his role – seems the easiest solution. He could threaten for double-digit power play goals in a full season and he, along with Brent Burns, add some genuine shooters to the profile.

This is bad news for Jarvis, though. He may have had an outside shot at top PP minutes but with the Pacioretty trade, that doesn't seem likely now. They could just go with Teravainen/Aho/Svechnikov/Pacioretty as their top forward quartet and roll. It would, ostensibly, give Jarvis a very good winger to play with if they end up on the same even strength line, but the lack of top PP time will be a hindrance to his fantasy upside. Such is the life of a young NHLer. Should Martin Necas return – he's still carrying an RFA tag – it would be the same for him. This also keeps the newly-signed Kase on the third/fourth lines.

Coghlan being included doesn't really help him. There was a logjam of defencemen in Vegas but he goes to a team with Burns, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei. He won't be playing top-4 minutes without an injury.

This does make the left-wing situation in Vegas a lot more interesting. Jonathan Marchessault should probably get as much ice time as he can handle but it's wide open after that. They could move Chandler Stephenson to the wing, or give William Carrier top-6 minutes, or move Nicolas Roy to the off-wing. No matter what, they won't replace Pacioretty, so they'll need more from their depth.

Again, though, this should mean lots of top minutes, and PPTOI, for Marchessault. He seems like a big beneficiary here, even if the team is worse overall.

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Who this helps

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Jonathan Marchessault

Who this hurts

Jack Eichel

Seth Jarvis

Mark Stone

Martin Necas

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