Ramblings: Day 3 of Free Agency, Josi vs. Makar, Trouba vs. Miller (Jul 16)

Ian Gooding

2022-07-16

Day 3 of free agency was even quieter than Day 2, and that's saying something. There were a few signings of note, though.

The Leafs have signed Calle Jarnkrok to a four-year contract worth $2.1 million. After spending his entire career with Nashville, the 30-year-old center split last season between Seattle and Calgary. With 26 points in 49 games for Seattle, Jarnkrok seemed to be a better fit for the expansion Kraken than he was for the Flames. After the move to Calgary, he recorded just four points (all assists) in 17 regular-season games.

Jarnkrok will probably slot in as the third-line center for the Leafs while serving as a top-6 replacement if Auston Matthews or John Tavares are injured, which would provide him some short-term value. Under normal circumstances, Jarnkrok seems to be a better real-life player than fantasy option.

Because of the Jarnkrok signing, Alexander Kerfoot and/or Justin Holl are rumored to be on the trade block so that the Leafs can become cap compliant. Rasmus Sandin and Pierre Engvall are RFAs that have yet to be signed.

The Flyers have signed Morgan Frost to a one-year, one-way contract worth $800,000. Frost recorded 16 points (5 G, 11 A) in 55 games while also scoring 19 points in 24 games in the AHL. If Scott Laughton moves to left wing, Frost could become the third-line center for the Flyers. Frost is a former first-round pick who should still have some upside in keeper leagues.

The Predators have signed Zach Sanford to a one-year, $850,000 contract. Sanford scored 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in 80 games split between Ottawa and Winnipeg last season. He is well-travelled, as the Preds will be his fourth team over the past three seasons. He was traded from St. Louis to Ottawa in the Logan Brown trade. Sanford has reached 100 hits in two of the past three seasons, so he could show some value in bangers leagues if he is able to get some decent icetime.

The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for July. I made more updates this month than I did last month, mainly because of all the players impacted by the recent trades and signings. Feel free to leave feedback on the rankings, which I will take into account when compiling next month's rankings.

I've also updated the rankings to show Cale Makar as the top-ranked defenseman, and it's a change I probably should have made sooner. We saw what Makar is capable of during the playoffs as a point-per-game-plus scorer. And guess what? He's entering his fourth season. I previously had Roman Josi in that top spot because of his run at 100 points, but I think Makar will be the defenseman to watch when it comes to pursuing 100 points. Injuries were an issue with Makar during his first two seasons, but he missed only five games in 2021-22. As long as Makar stays healthy, the sky's the limit.

Compare Players – Josi/Makar

As for Josi, I have him re-ranked in a second mini-tier of d-men with Victor Hedman and Adam Fox. Josi, Makar, Hedman, and Fox were the top four scoring defensemen last season. All appear to be safe default Norris Trophy candidates as well.

One question I received about the Roto Rankings was why Jacob Trouba (#81) is on the list while K'Andre Miller isn't when Miller might be the better defenseman. I'll answer this question in two parts.

First, I'm not the hockey world's foremost analytics expert. In fact, I wouldn't even consider myself the foremost analytics expert of Dobber Hockey. In my writing, I tend to stay in my lane. Not because a reader or someone on Twitter told me to, but because I want to. My expertise is in fantasy leagues, which is what I write about. I use analytics where it will aid me in fantasy leagues, but not beyond that. In other words, there's a considerable portion of analytics that simply does not apply to fantasy leagues, or is data that I simply do not concentrate on.

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Here's what I mean in the context of Trouba and Miller.

The following player usage chart classifies Trouba as an "average top-four two-way defenseman," while Miller is listed as an "effective top-four two-way defenseman.” (If you want to find these labels, go to Frozen Tools and look up the player profile, then go to Advanced Stats and scroll down.) I won't expand on the methodology used on how these labels were reached, and I won't argue the point that Miller is considered a better defenseman. Especially someone who probably watches more Rangers games than I do. Trouba and Miller are normally defensive partners, which makes it easier to compare them by watching.

Second, in terms of fantasy leagues – both pure scoring and multicategory – Trouba is clearly the better defenseman to roster. Here's a comparison based on last season's stats:

NameGPGAPTSPPPSOG+/-HitsBkS
K’ANDRE MILLER827132011022115195
JACOB TROUBA81112839420423207177

Compare Players – Miller/Trouba

Trouba's scoring was nearly double Miller's scoring last season. I will acknowledge that Trouba has had a few down seasons scoring-wise, so his value on the Roto Rankings might be inflated a bit by what was a better-than-normal scoring season. Defensemen tend to be assist-heavy with their scoring, but Trouba's secondary assist percentage of 50 percent appears to be in line for him.

Where Trouba really works his magic in multicategory leagues is with the peripheral categories. Trouba took double the number of shots that Miller did last season. He also delivered considerably more hits and blocked more shots, all in practically the same number of games. All of these category wins don't necessarily mean that Trouba is a better defenseman than Miller, as there are other metrics used to determine a player's actual value. But in fantasy leagues, Trouba is clearly the defenseman that should be rostered over Miller because he contributes more of the stats that are measured.

From a league-wide standpoint, only Radko Gudas had a higher hits+blocks total than Trouba (384 HIT+BKS) in 2021-22. To go one step further, Trouba had the highest shots+hits+blocks total of any player in the league (588 SOG+HIT+BKS). So if you combine the total of three roto categories that are frequently used in fantasy leagues, Trouba has the highest total of anyone. Debate his effectiveness as a defenseman all you want, but he makes a lot of things happen. That's what you're looking for in fantasy. I realize only SOG and Hits are counted in the Roto Rankings, but I stand by ranking Trouba in the top 100 anyway.

There are more than enough articles out there about a player's value to a team, both in terms of analytics and the "eye test" (video). While there may be some overlap to fantasy leagues, it's important not to confuse this analysis with fantasy advice.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

One Comment

  1. Striker 2022-07-16 at 11:30

    Kampf is Tor’s #3 C, he took 1165 faceoffs last season for Tor winning 52.9%, Jarnkrok should play with him and Engvall baring Tor making further trades. Jarnkrok can play any forward position so will certainly move into the middle when injuries or illness dictate.

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